dendrite Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Nice rainer on the EPS mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 What do the weeklies show for May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice rainer on the EPS mean LOL Absolutely unreal. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: absolutely horrific handling of the Atlantic by the EPS. like not even close compared to 12z yesterday I'm sure there will be JEDI like consistency from here on in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 At least we can maybe get some dews. It’s been awhile since they touched 50°…like a week or 2? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Well, this is the point where trolls come out and everyone starts pushing one another's buttons, so I'll be back if it looks better. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 A few days ago, I honestly deep down thought one of these would work out. Oye. Yeah I know...still time...but I don't like this turn of events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, this is the point where trolls come out and everyone starts pushing one another's buttons, so I'll be back if it looks better. Nah. Some of the ill-natured trolling I’m going to start cracking down on. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL Absolutely unreal. You absolutely know it’s suddenly going to sober up and show something similar to that for the next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A few days ago, I honestly deep down thought one of these would work out. Oye. Yeah I know...still time...but I don't like this turn of events. at least the ECMWF is on a bit of an island as to how it’s handling the confluence? just crazy to see it lose the 50/50 like that completely in a day it’s usually much more consistent than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice rainer on the EPS mean I think to this point it has been a lot Of hyperbole, but if we miss this one, I think this season is in a lot of trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: at least the ECMWF is on a bit of an island as to how it’s handling the confluence? just crazy to see it lose the 50/50 like that completely in a day it’s usually much more consistent than that Consistency starts now, since it shows a dung solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A few days ago, I honestly deep down thought one of these would work out. Oye. Yeah I know...still time...but I don't like this turn of events. It was at about this range we were getting excited about the pre Xmas deal, and then the OP GEM came out with that PV-west bombshell, and everything followed it. Hopefully everything follows the OP GEM again lol I just don't believe that this season will do that badly until it actually happens. I still feel like it will end up snowy, but admittedly.....just a guess/hunch. I am not trying to say that the rainy deal without the PV can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Went from having a crazy strong 50/50 yesterday to basically none. Got schooled by the GFS . There’s a nice ridge pumped into NewFound instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think to this point it has been a lot Of hyperbole, but if we miss this one, I think this season is in a lot of trouble Agree...totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think to this point it has been a lot Of hyperbole, but if we miss this one, I think this season is in a lot of trouble I mean sure…the longer you go the more of the season you’re punting. You start turning into last year’s Dolphins…can still have a nice finish, but the season as a whole winds up disappointing. There’s a lot of time to go though…just hope we get a nice wintry stretch to enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: At least we can maybe get some dews. It’s been awhile since they touched 50°…like a week or 2? 50F dews common here. 1/3 was previous day for them. Had them on 12/31 and 1/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 confluence is a **** for the models to handle. We've seen situations in the past where around this time range the OP's do a complete 180 for a few runs. It's a pretty volatile northern stream...lots to resolve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 It's odd that if you recall the last huge signal we had in late December, we had models show a huge blizzard and that flipped in like 2 OP runs to shit and that was it. This is too eerily similar to that. Still think models are struggling with the PAC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/2/2023 at 12:08 PM, dendrite said: press 5 to hear Ray's winter forecast press 6 to hear Ray melt about the pattern and stress over his forecast press 7 to hear Ray reassure himself that this is all going according to plan press 8 to hear Ray flush his forecast down the toilet as it rains on Jan 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 50F dews common here. 1/3 was previous day for them. Had them on 12/31 and 1/1 I mean we’ve had months up here where the temp never gets above freezing or only for like a day and it’s usually one of those pre-WINDEX setups. We’re only supposed to pull off 50° dews in the cuttiest of the cutters. No problemo lately though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's odd that if you recall the last huge signal we had in late December, we had models show a huge blizzard and that flipped in like 2 OP runs to shit and that was it. This is too eerily similar to that. Still think models are struggling with the PAC. Models f**king up the PAC killed December....they still suck at handling the PAC, but this time, now they are mucking up the Atlantic where our confluence was coming from. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: press 8 to hear Ray flush his forecast down the toilet as it rains on Jan 15 Hey I salute you. There’s too much volatility and chaos for me to get into the seasonal forecasting, but I respect those who try. That’s how we further the science on everything. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hey I salute you. There’s too much volatility and chaos for me to get into the seasonal forecasting, but I respect those who try. That’s how we further the science on everything. I thought it was hilarious....well done. But for those who think I do that without fail....watch if this bitch rains. At that point it will be time to admit that things have not gone according to plan. You can't go down with a sinking ship and not admit your whiffs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Nice CONUS torch on the EPS post-storm just in time for the climo coldest time of the year too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The GFS/Euro seem to be in relatively different agreement with the 500 pattern through Sunday night and then just start to diverge like crazy moving through Monday morning with the Arctic/Atlantic. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Nice CONUS torch on the EPS post-storm just in time for the climo coldest time of the year too. Wife is giving birth before the end of the month, so good time for a torch lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was at about this range we were getting excited about the pre Xmas deal, and then the OP GEM came out with that PV-west bombshell, and everything followed it. Hopefully everything follows the OP GEM again lol I just don't believe that this season will do that badly until it actually happens. I still feel like it will end up snowy, but admittedly.....just a guess/hunch. I am not trying to say that the rainy deal without the PV can't happen. 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's odd that if you recall the last huge signal we had in late December, we had models show a huge blizzard and that flipped in like 2 OP runs to shit and that was it. This is too eerily similar to that. Still think models are struggling with the PAC. I said these things this morning . Exact same set up with regard to the days of the week, which just two weeks ago today the xmas storm went to dung on Friday the 23rd. Now this just did the same thing in a Friday. The irony. The only difference as Ray mentioned, was that it was the Canadian that led the way with the dung look, and it was right. Now it’s the European. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We don’t need to watch the news on tv to know when a storm ends. We all have access to up to the minute guidance and radars. NECT may snow til 5-6pm. Looks like it's over ( never began ) for NECT. That's going by the radar!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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