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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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  On 1/6/2023 at 5:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Man we just can’t be looking at another rainer to Mainer …can we? 

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This thing is far from any type of consensus…but keep expectations low and we all good.  
 

Some improvements with the GFS at 12z, and CMC was quite nice..so a marked improvement from that one too.  Let’s see what ensembles say? 

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  On 1/6/2023 at 5:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess we need to track Monday then if the next one is now a rainer 

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It’s a tossup at this point. Pope says rain even though his geese prefer he not comment on d8 systems.

Let’s grab some something on Monday and hope the Vatican is lying about the weekend.  

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  On 1/6/2023 at 5:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess we need to track Monday then if the next one is now a rainer 

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  On 1/6/2023 at 5:27 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a tossup at this point. Pope says rain even though his geese prefer he not comment on d8 systems.

Let’s grab some something on Monday and hope the Vatican is lying about the weekend.  

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Not even close to seriously looking at this one yet. Focus is on today’s rain and Monday’s flurries (hopefully more).

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Well regardless of ptype… The GEF signal trended toward the typology for powerful coastal storms. 

For 180 -219 hrs? This 12z cluster’s about as coherent for climo Nor’easters as can be …

unfortunately that can be rain or snow but like I said… ptype aside. 

The op Canadian is actually a leading entropic lift event… and then when the storm winds up it actually doesn’t even have a CCB on land

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