WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 4:56 AM, weathafella said: Look at the gfs. Expand I believe ya…but I’m not really paying attention/putting much stock in to the OP runs at this lead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 GEFS to me looks promising by d7… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 GEFS is still loaded. don’t fret 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 5:00 AM, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is still loaded. don’t fret Expand Agree. Damned near perfect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 5:00 AM, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is still loaded. don’t fret Expand Does that ridge out west look even more amped? It’s in a great spot too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 5:01 AM, weathafella said: Agree. Damned near perfect. Expand The OP makes sense synoptically in that it cuts off from N stream and rains, but thankfully ensembles say that is BS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 All the major models have the storm cutting off. Way early yet at point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Pretty discouraging overnight trends. I mentioned yesterday that the ensembles had the snow swath pretty far north considering the track. That trend continues on the Canadian and eps. GEFS is still favorable overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 6z GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 10:49 AM, ineedsnow said: 6z GFS Expand Yeah, the OP has the 14th... as well as some light snow on the 9th again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Next 10 days on the GFS I'm sure it will be different at 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Sunday night Monday might get it done with a few inches. Creeping back up on guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 11:46 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Sunday night Monday might get it done with a few inches. Creeping back up on guidance. Expand I feel you'd want to see a stronger surface low if it were to come N, otherwise it looks more wet then white to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The crappy solutions for the 1/14 storm are not inserting much northern stream energy. That is a requirement for the storm to be any good. You don’t want this just cutting off from the polar jet otherwise it turns into a spring storm. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 11:59 AM, ORH_wxman said: The crappy solutions for the 1/14 storm are not inserting much northern stream energy. That is a requirement for the storm to be any good. You don’t want this just cutting off from the polar jet otherwise it turns into a spring storm. Expand Do not want it being buried into the Carolinas for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 11:58 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: I feel you'd want to see a stronger surface low if it were to come N, otherwise it looks more wet then white to me. Expand Ya as of now it’s a Philly special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 If this thing occludes in freaking Oklahoma without any northern stream interaction, it’s gonna meander along and either exit right or wobble up to us without any dynamics and be shit. Ensembles were hinting at this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 11:41 AM, ineedsnow said: Next 10 days on the GFS I'm sure it will be different at 12z Expand 0.00" here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 12:07 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya as of now it’s a Philly special. Expand With rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Touchy setup. Need N stream help but not too much or it runs inland. Not enough and it’s a spring time coastal. Give it a few days to hone in but we need thoughts and prayers to thread this perfectly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Even though we have some players on the field, not getting great feels for this one. Keeping expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 12:15 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Touchy setup. Need N stream help but not too much or it runs inland. Not enough and it’s a spring time coastal. Give it a few days to hone in but we need thoughts and prayers to thread this perfectly. Expand In the end it’s almost always like that….gotta have just the right amount of certain ingredients. This year we can’t seem to catch a break, so we’ll err on this not coming together the way we’ll need it to to keep expectations in check at the moment. Ironically, it was exactly two weeks ago on a Friday (the 23rd), that the other bigger potential went down the drain too for us with the cutter idea. Funny shit this is starting to do something we don’t want on the same day. Can’t make it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 12:25 PM, WinterWolf said: In the end it’s almost always like that….gotta have just the right amount of certain ingredients. This year we can’t seem to catch a break, so we’ll err on this not coming together the way we’ll need it to to keep expectations in check at the moment. Ironically, it was exactly two weeks ago on a Friday (the 23rd), that the other bigger potential went down the drain too for us with the cutter idea. Funny shit this is starting to do something we don’t want on the same day. Can’t make it up. Expand Stick with persistence in the pattern. Maybe, just maybe it breaks right but expectations are low. Up and in favored as always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 12:25 PM, WinterWolf said: In the end it’s almost always like that….gotta have just the right amount of certain ingredients. This year we can’t seem to catch a break, so we’ll err on this not coming together the way we’ll need it to to keep expectations in check at the moment. Ironically, it was exactly two weeks ago on a Friday (the 23rd), that the other bigger potential went down the drain too for us with the cutter idea. Funny shit this is starting to do something we don’t want on the same day. Can’t make it up. Expand Put on your jean shorts and flannel shirt, grow a mullet, pop in your fave rock band cassette…the 80s ain’t going away anytime soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I'm so tired of rain Snow gods hate us Who the hell wants rain during the winter since it rains all year ? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 12:37 PM, MJO812 said: I'm so tired of rain Snow gods hate us Who the hell wants rain during the winter since it rains all year ? Expand Cold winter rain on a brown mudscape is my absolute most hated weather. 100% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 12:15 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Touchy setup. Need N stream help but not too much or it runs inland. Not enough and it’s a spring time coastal. Give it a few days to hone in but we need thoughts and prayers to thread this perfectly. Expand Looks precarious. For God's sake don't let Tip start a thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 On 1/6/2023 at 12:55 PM, kdxken said: Looks precarious. For God's sake don't let Tip start a thread. Expand "Tanuary 14th Cosmic Dildo" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Can see a clear difference in nrn stream vs no nrn stream on the GEFS vs EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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