kdxken Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: To be fair there WAS a huge storm and many records (elsewhere). I trust him to say what needs to be said (all of it) at the right time, albeit with perhaps better timing this go around. He was 2 cycles early on the last deal IIRC. Sorry we just can't risk it. We need a new player. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 The setup for the 14th is very interesting, on the models we have extremely mild SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean clashing with Canadian air filtering down from 1030s mb high to the north. The sharp thermal contrast supports explosive cyclogenesis as the low redevelops off the coast due to the confluence. We have extremely mild SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean, an atmosphere rich with water vapor due to severe volcanic activity, a strong high to the north, a strong piece of southern energy, northern energy diving in to phase (big wildcard right now, there is risk that this happens too late for us), and confluence to force secondary redevelopment. Therefore, I am of the opinion that if the northern energy does phase in, the low will deepen to the 960s easily, possibly even the 950s. Due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking this is a somewhat progressive pattern, so the solutions with the low SE of the benchmark make sense. However, with a storm this strong the precip shield would be so expansive that we could get into heavy snows even with a storm 100-200 miles SE of the benchmark. The late Jan blizzard last year, Jan 2015, and mid March 2018 all were SE of the benchmark, but we still got clobbered due to how expansive the precip shield was. The low does not need to go right over the benchmark for us to get big snows, anywhere from 200 miles SE to like 100 miles NW will do if the low deepens as much as I am expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 actually pretty tame, i am surprised 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 In this pattern NE areas could benefit. Even if the low slides offshore initially, a late phase from the northern branch last minute could hook the low back in. This would screw the Mid Atlantic, but clobber eastern mass. That happened in the mid Feb 2015 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: actually pretty tame, i am surprised He didn't say we were getting a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies actually look decent for late Jan and early Feb….but we know the caveats. It goes more toward a classic La Niña pattern but with a pretty strong AK ridge which is usually good in February…longer wavelengths tend to make it less likely you get the AK trough folding back and digging in Cabo San Lucas. We also have *this* which I would have never expected to show up Way out there, but still interesting to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, kdxken said: Sorry we just can't risk it. We need a new pRayer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: He didn't say we were getting a blizzard i mentioned 2 days ago that I was of the opinion that this threat had the potential to develop into a severe Miller B nor’easter/blizzard, but it wasn’t a sure thing. This far out there are still a wide range of outcomes, with anything from a way OTS unphased system to a slow moving Miller B blizzard being possible. Right now if I had to make an estimate I’d say this threat has around a 35-40% chance at developing into a blizzard for all of SNE, which is quite high for this lead time but not enough to say we WILL get a blizzard for sure. As good as things look, I gotta pump the breaks a bit this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Bit more N-stream involvement this run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: actually pretty tame, i am surprised I totally skipped it lol…cuz I didn’t want to see the B word. Glad to hear it was tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Ugly solution tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Ugly solution tho...It really comes down to what happens with that Atlantic system day 5-6. Some models phase the TPV, others, like todays Canadian and GFS don’t. That’s going to create our 50/50. Here Is difference between 18z GFS and EURO. Focus on the AtlanticWe’ll probably see this sorted out soon as it’s almost under 120 hours . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ugly solution tho... not even sure what it's trying to do here. just shreds the bowling ball to pieces in a desperate attempt for a phase. kinda grotesque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Chickens in floaties in NH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: not even sure what it's trying to do here. just shreds the bowling ball to pieces in a desperate attempt for a phase. kinda grotesque Maybe the positive takeaway is it did inject a lil more N. Stream energy this run. Other than that, it doesn’t mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Chickens in floaties in NH. 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 stronger 50/50 this run of the GEFS... definitely a move towards the EPS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Maybe the positive takeaway is it did inject a lil more N. Stream energy this run. Other than that, it doesn’t mean much. This one has a very wide range of outcomes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This one has a very wide range of outcomes. Ya it does. Was just looking for a positive take away from the pos run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Some nice indies in there considering the OP was a mud storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 21 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Some nice indies in there considering the OP was a mud storm Who are the Indians you keep referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who are the Indians you keep referring to? I think he meant undies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 hours ago, Heisy said: It really comes down to what happens with that Atlantic system day 5-6. Some models phase the TPV, others, like todays Canadian and GFS don’t. That’s going to create our 50/50. Here Is difference between 18z GFS and EURO. Focus on the Atlantic We’ll probably see this sorted out soon as it’s almost under 120 hours . In my amateur opinion....great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Judah Cohen might be right with the warming event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 WU going hard at the totals for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Judah Cohen might be right with the warming event. Lol weren’t we just told a couple days ago that the PV is incredibly stable? Was that fake news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, tavwtby said: WU going hard at the totals for next week 10” at 37 degrees lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 10” at 37 degrees lol? yeah I said the same, their temps hardly match what I record anyway so grain of salt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, tavwtby said: yeah I said the same, their temps hardly match what I record anyway so grain of salt Oh ya..it’s a joke at 7 days out anyway. Just found it funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Oh ya..it’s a joke at 7 days out anyway. Just found it funny. me too, especially when it was showing nearly the same before Christmas ha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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