ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Well, we do need an E Canadian region cold source. In split flow, we can sometimes get away without it. Jan ‘06 was an example…ditto for periods in the ‘83 Nino and more recently we did ok in late Dec 2012 with that type of look. The first half or 2/3rds of Jan ‘87 was similar as well. I think we were like +3 or +4 the first couple weeks with 3 warning snow events. But you need that split flow with lower heights down south for it to have a chance. Otherwise it’s parakeets and pina coladas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: First of all, Stop backing that troll Qg all the time. Secondly, you’re from Jersey, if you’re gonna come in here, then stop pimping a MET from NC. You have to realize there are caveats with that look that could not make it verify. GEFS is completely different. He's gone max pessimist like that snowman character. I'm feeling bleak atm but even I think we'll prob get something eventually. If not then it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: Well, the bad winters had nothing or close to it at this point as well. There are more examples of bad winters up to mid Jan that stayed bad for the rest of the way than there are winters of 15-16. ‘15-16 was an awful winter. It stayed bad. We did get some snow events but it wasn’t enough to revive winter. The mid-Atlantic had the HECS but it only fringed us. You might be thinking of 2014-15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: ‘15-16 was an awful winter. It stayed bad. We did get some snow events but it wasn’t enough to revive winter. The mid-Atlantic had the HECS but it only fringed us. You might be thinking of 2014-15. Yeah 14 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GEFS still keeps focus on the late-week potential system. really nice look here 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: North Carolina won’t snow with plus 10..much of NE can still clean up with plus ten. And it’s a five day 850. It couldn’t be more irrelevant….I think there’s general consensus jan will be above normal temps. . It’s not a good pattern but it’s far from the worst. We don’t have an AK vortex and we have split flow. We’re in the game if those two criteria are met. Hopefully it trends a little better too given the tropical forcing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 There's no SE ridge. 240 hr out There's no SE ridge. 180 hr out There's no SE ridge. 150 hr out There is a SE ridge.... 120 hr out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: In split flow, we can sometimes get away without it. Jan ‘06 was an example…ditto for periods in the ‘83 Nino and more recently we did ok in late Dec 2012 with that type of look. The first half or 2/3rds of Jan ‘87 was similar as well. I think we were like +3 or +4 the first couple weeks with 3 warning snow events. But you need that split flow with lower heights down south for it to have a chance. Otherwise it’s parakeets and pina coladas. Yea, I was about to post...its clearly not a frigid pattern, but that doesn't mean it wont be a snowy one....This is January, not April or November. I'll take my chances with that at peak climo over an arctic PV doing lake effect chases with @BuffaloWeather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: He's gone max pessimist like that snowman character. I'm feeling bleak atm but even I think we'll prob get something eventually. If not then it is what it is That’s fine…then he should stay in his own sub forum. I’m at 3.8”, but I’m gonna go out on a flimsy limb here, and say I’ll make into double digits easily before this winter wraps up 10 weeks from now. It may be a rat, but even in the rats, it snows in SNE. It may not in Jersey however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I was about to post...its clearly not a frigid pattern, but that doesn't mean it wont be a snowy one....This is January, not April or November. I'll take my chances with that at peak climo over an arctic PV doing lake effect chases with @BuffaloWeather That said, I also think its BS to just summarily dismiss what he is saying...that is as bad as the trollling. Just contest the point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: He's gone max pessimist like that snowman character. I'm feeling bleak atm but even I think we'll prob get something eventually. If not then it is what it is It's just a different form of weenie. You have the snow weenie, then them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I live in Massachusetts, why should I care about what a MET from CT, NY, VT, NH, or ME thinks? What sort of dick mentality is that. Take a few days away . NC and NE aren’t even in the same area code 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: There's no SE ridge. 240 hr out There's no SE ridge. 180 hr out There's no SE ridge. 150 hr out There is a SE ridge.... 120 hr out Can you post your degree here so we can all see it? 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s not a good pattern but it’s far from the worst. We don’t have an AK vortex and we have split flow. We’re in the game if those two criteria are met. Hopefully it trends a little better too given the tropical forcing. Yeah, you've been on this so I wasn't trying to argue some epic pattern...just pointing out to him that red anomalies aren't the kiss of death, especially for NNE, where mid Atlantic and especially NC, it's game over. But yeah, when I see bare ground in Jay Vt. in January, it doesn't scream epic. About as bad as it can get skiing wise right now. I'm still optimistic that it being this active, the odds will play out up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, jbenedet said: There's no SE ridge. 240 hr out There's no SE ridge. 180 hr out There's no SE ridge. 150 hr out There is a SE ridge.... 120 hr out It’s good you finally agree that we’re not dealing with a SE ridge the next week or two. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s good you finally agree that we’re not dealing with a SE ridge the next week or two. Lol…I mean what was he trying to say or argue there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What sort of dick mentality is being a troll and pushing a narrative like some are doing. It goes both ways Bob. Wut are even talking about? Kevin is in here ripping degreed METs and asking for proof. That’s over the line. Proof is provided when they join. Maybe pick your battles better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol…I mean what was he trying to say or argue there? He was showing everyone he is not a degreed met . My guess is maybe he’s an 18 yr old intern or college student ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Take a few days away . NC and NE aren’t even in the same area code Neither is Boston and south Weymouth… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wut are even talking about? Kevin is in here ripping degreed METs and asking for proof. That’s over the line. Proof is provided when they join. Maybe pick your battles better. Bob, I don’t have to like a pushed narrative. You want to post the bad looks, that’s fine. But then post the decent and good looks too. Will and Scott tell us exactly what looks nice and what doesn’t. I have no issues with somebody saying something doesn’t look good. But when something looks good, then say that too. That’s not happening with a few posters here. It’s a pushed idea by a few. And if that’s your idea, then that’s ok too, if you provide some sound evidence and backing. And a couple of them aren’t even from N.E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Yeah, you've been on this so I wasn't trying to argue some epic pattern...just pointing out to him that red anomalies aren't the kiss of death, especially for NNE, where mid Atlantic and especially NC, it's game over. But yeah, when I see bare ground in Jay Vt. in January, it doesn't scream epic. About as bad as it can get skiing wise right now. I'm still optimistic that it being this active, the odds will play out up here. I mean, this is my backyard on Jan 4 at 1500 feet in NNE. You don’t find that epic??? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He was showing everyone he is not a degreed met . My guess is maybe he’s an 18 yr old intern or college student ? They don’t get the tag unless they provide proof (or in some cases, we might already know them or another met went to school with them) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, alex said: I mean, this is my backyard on Jan 4 at 1500 feet in NNE. You don’t find that epic??? I had absolutely no idea it was THIS bad up there. Maybe well be able to get in some nice hiking for our trip in a few weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 @ORH_wxman do you know where they moved all the historical snowfall records for the major climo places? I cringe b/c of the stupid debacle in the mid 90's through early 2000's with the records, but I at leave have some of those gaps filled in from what you've provided over the years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 What we drinking? Beer? Wine? Water's cool too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, alex said: I mean, this is my backyard on Jan 4 at 1500 feet in NNE. You don’t find that epic??? What happened to Phin? He would be melting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I had absolutely no idea it was THIS bad up there. Maybe well be able to get in some nice hiking for our trip in a few weeks Yes it’s that bad. As many have said, much can change in a few weeks but certainly pretty pathetic right now. That said, I just talked to some guests today and they said that they’re still having a blast. Don’t let the weather get you down, there’s still plenty of activities to enjoy out there and you can still ski and have a good time, if it’s not the best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 You know winter has been bad when........... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, qg_omega said: What happened to Phin? He would be melting In this winter? He probably did melt like every inch of snow we’ve gotten so far Don’t know the details but I guess he’s been banned for some unsavory comments about women and my kind (the gays). Oh well… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, alex said: Yes it’s that bad. As many have said, much can change in a few weeks but certainly pretty pathetic right now. That said, I just talked to some guests today and they said that they’re still having a blast. Don’t let the weather get you down, there’s still plenty of activities to enjoy out there and you can still ski and have a good time, if it’s not the best. I’m sure we’ll have a good time. If nothing else, they’ll be plenty of drinking, don’t need snow for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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