40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:40 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I’d roll the chamber and hope to catch a bullet with an 1888 redux no hesitation Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Classic subsume phase scenario… Very high proficiency at that. There’s no ejecta indicating that the southern stream does not outpace; it literally turns into one singular coherent vortex. So yeah all the obvious… In terms of objective skepticism take your pick -there’s a lot of them for this. To that I will only say that the period between the 12th and 15th yada yada yada has been quite prevalent in the ensemble members. It’s kind of like the mode and the mean are a little extra different in this case… despite not really fitting into the index indicators, either. At least not very well. In fact I can’t see any numerical Tele connector that supports this kind of West Atlantic bombogenesis interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 BTW no 60s here, 43 and cloudy in Simsbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:39 PM, MJO812 said: Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The cold is at least in eastern Canada, vs central/western. We have that. Pacific is poor and that keeps us with AN bias BUT in JANUARY, which is workable (meaning, when the arctic isn't involved) in areas with average highs in the 20's -- western MA, Vermont, interior NH and much of Maine. But the robust SE ridge is also a problem with storms prone to warm sectoring eastern areas. I think longitude will matter more than latitude over next few weeks. West better than north. And Northwest >> SE. Most favored areas for snow chances would be Berks and Vermont. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Not that it matters, but I don't think it would rain back that far west in reality...it doesn't tuck enough to induce due east flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Also I remember looking at the 06Z this morning and thinking boy… That’s really close to becoming a much bigger ordeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:43 PM, jbenedet said: The cold is at least in eastern Canada, vs central/western. We have that. Pacific is poor and that keeps us with AN bias BUT in JANUARY, which is workable in areas with average highs in the 20's -- western MA, Vermont, interior NH and much of Maine. But the robust SE ridge is also a problem with storms prone to warm sectoring eastern areas. I think longitude will matter more than latitude over next few weeks. West better than north. And Northwest >> SE. Most favored areas for snow chances would be Berks and Vermont. Expand There is no SE ridge. The 6-10 day and 11-15 day ensemble mean on the GEFS and EPS have lower heights off the SE coast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:43 PM, jbenedet said: The cold is at least in eastern Canada, vs central/western. We have that. Pacific is poor and that keeps us with AN bias BUT in JANUARY, which is workable (meaning, when the arctic isn't involved) in areas with average highs in the 20's -- western MA, Vermont, interior NH and much of Maine. But the robust SE ridge is also a problem with storms prone to warm sectoring eastern areas. I think longitude will matter more than latitude over next few weeks. West better than north. And Northwest >> SE. Most favored areas for snow chances would be Berks and Vermont. Expand Let me begin by stating I haven't checked long range ensembles yet...but I recall Will saying yesterday that there wasn't a big se ridge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not that it matters, but I don't think it would rain back that far west in reality...it doesn't tuck enough to induce due east flow. Expand The problem is the front lagging a la 1888. Plenty of easterly inflow aloft back to WNE. It's a weird, rare solution so we smile at it and wait for 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Lets see if the Euro gives it any support. Boy that would be the chef's kiss for this winter. Driving rainstorm at the heart of climo...lol. I almost want to see it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Gfs has a nice pattern after this week Not shocking since there is a favorable MJO this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:21 PM, greenmtnwx said: First sign of a mental crack. The old “well I’ll sacrifice” post. Expand Mental Crack about snow. Cmon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Interesting gfs .. taken with a grain of salt considering how horrible it’s been. We wait for doctor no… meanwhile 64.6 / 59 and party cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:07 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is it? Or is it reality? we are now 2+ weeks into Jan for a “period to watch” Expand You are going to fucking Stowe VT lol at your anxiety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:49 PM, Hazey said: Lets see if the Euro gives it any support. Boy that would be the chef's kiss for this winter. Driving rainstorm at the heart of climo...lol. I almost want to see it happen. Expand for some, others it is probably snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Man, that's a full-blown El Nino pattern on the GFS in clown range. Pretty weird to see in a La Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:42 PM, UnitedWx said: BTW no 60s here, 43 and cloudy in Simsbury Expand Yep. A soggy and gray 45 here. And I found 2 ticks on the dog after our hike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowemgee Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Hey, something to talk about! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:42 PM, UnitedWx said: BTW no 60s here, 43 and cloudy in Simsbury Expand NAM a hair overdone with the cold, Euro overdone with the warmth. RGEM this morning looks pretty good with the colder air deep into the CTRV, torch along S coast, and low 50s around Kevin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 5:02 PM, snowemgee said: Hey, something to talk about! Expand For a few hours at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:43 PM, jbenedet said: The cold is at least in eastern Canada, vs central/western. We have that. Pacific is poor and that keeps us with AN bias BUT in JANUARY, which is workable (meaning, when the arctic isn't involved) in areas with average highs in the 20's -- western MA, Vermont, interior NH and much of Maine. But the robust SE ridge is also a problem with storms prone to warm sectoring eastern areas. I think longitude will matter more than latitude over next few weeks. West better than north. And Northwest >> SE. Most favored areas for snow chances would be Berks and Vermont. Expand Are you a met? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 5:02 PM, dendrite said: NAM a hair overdone with the cold, Euro overdone with the warmth. RGEM this morning looks pretty good with the colder air deep into the CTRV, torch along S coast, and low 50s around Kevin. Expand Goofus doesn't look terrible either...maybe just a shade warm but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I liked it better when the GFS would always have unphased trash way OTS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 5:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: Man, that's a full-blown El Nino pattern on the GFS in clown range. Pretty weird to see in a La Nina. Expand Suspicious that’s why the MJO is finally finding the strength to move through phases 8-1-2. Seems to be there’s some constructive interference going on there. The only contention I have other than the fact that it’s completely decoupling from the La Niña Basin … Is that the last I was aware most of the wave momentum was south of the equator. The weekly MJO publication mentioned that those phase is correlate to colder weather over North America… obviously they are right but they’re doing it in the context of this being conflicting signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 5:03 PM, dendrite said: I liked it better when the GFS would always have unphased trash way OTS. Expand Yeah we used to have 510 thicknesses with storms hitting Bermuda on every GFS run beyond 240 hours....now it only gives us unphased fish storms when it's like 3 days before a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:47 PM, CoastalWx said: There is no SE ridge. The 6-10 day and 11-15 day ensemble mean on the GEFS and EPS have lower heights off the SE coast. Expand Yea that's what it is showing off and on. But I believe going to see it flex more often than not during that window. N to AN UL heights. A nagging issue. This look at 144 is very tenuous for example--if that shortwave amplifies slightly, we easily see enough ridging to take eastern SNE out of the game. It wouldn't take much for this to look like a flatter version of the storm we are experiencing right now, which is still too warm for many. But not for far interior, Northern NH, western MA, VT and Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 4:24 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: That would send some to the rafters. Expand Would send me west lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 5:02 PM, WxWatcher007 said: For a few hours at least Expand Another great airmass we seem to be threading needles in early to mid January when we need this poop flushed out like Bob and wiz say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 5:12 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Another great airmass Expand Yeah, seeing a common theme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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