January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[brooklynwx99]

huge signal on the EPS for late next week

really potent shortwave moving across the CONUS coinciding with a +PNA spike and confluence over SE Canada

[jbenedet]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This isn't 1960. Our remote sensing capabilities are pretty darn good for analyzing components of the MJO. That along with tribal accounts of migratory birds get us to a good point.

What makes you so sure? Your bogus mid to long range forecasts?

I wonder why we have such high forecast error for shortwaves in datasparse regions of Canada then. 

My argument is in the precision and accuracy of this. You can get a snapshot. But good luck rolling that data forward into something reliable. 

"Pretty darn good", in the world of forecasting is actually crap. You are way more confident than what this technology and data can output.

Pick a phase any phase:

 

"A butterfly flaps its wings" 

 

 

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

huge signal on the EPS for late next week

really potent shortwave moving across the CONUS coinciding with a +PNA spike and confluence over SE Canada

Yup and energy crashing into California as the ridge rolls over.  Not a good look, we toss.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Yup and energy crashing into California as the ridge rolls over.  Not a good look, we toss.

no

[Baroclinic Zone]

25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We heavy deluge right now

Frickin' rain gauge not working again. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

What makes you so sure? Your bogus mid to long range forecasts?

I wonder why we have such high forecast error for shortwaves in datasparse regions of Canada then. 

My argument is in the precision and accuracy of this. You can get a snapshot. But good luck rolling that data forward into something reliable. 

"Pretty darn good", in the world of forecasting is actually crap. You are way more confident than what this technology and data can output.

Pick a phase any phase:

 

"A butterfly flaps its wings" 

 

 

Our satellites these days provide data that substitute for RAOBs. This isn't low res stuff either. You also have aircraft reports etc to help. Besides, we aren't trying to decipher things like timing a s/w to induce cyclogenesis off the east coast. We are looking at a broad area to analyze things like outgoing long wave radiation, 850mb winds etc. We then use guidance to see how this will propagate. They'll be some errors for sure, but you aren't going to see gross errors in the MJO 1-2 weeks out. 

FWIW those RMM plots are noisy and typically not the most accurate.

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Frickin' rain gauge not working again. 

Use a stratus even if its for a back up.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Use a stratus even if its for a back up.

Yeah, I should have one.

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, I should have one.

They're great for getting core samples too, But you need snow to take one................

[Torch Tiger]

GEFS appears to like either D9-10ish, or maybe the trailing s/w D12ish.   

[powderfreak]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This is how we did 2012-13——a warm but rather snowy winter backloaded.

I thought that winter had some solid December snows.  Maybe it was more NNE.  I remember that holiday period being very snowy.

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

They're great for getting core samples too, But you need snow to take one................

Mud cores.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no

It’s a good look but there is energy into Cali as the short wave approaches east coast and the Rockies ridge de amplifies. That seems to be a reoccurring theme , just wave after wave of pacific energy crashing into west coast 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I thought that winter had some solid December snows.  Maybe it was more NNE.  I remember that holiday period being very snowy.

Better than this year but subnormal with a horrible January.

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s a good look but there is energy into Cali as the short wave approaches east coast and the Rockies ridge de amplifies. That seems to be a reoccurring theme , just wave after wave of pacific energy crashing into west coast 

haha I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I would not say that the ridge rolls over here. the axis shifts east a bit, but this happens with every event, even the huge ones like 1996 and 2016. I wouldn't consider it an issue here... the airmass is the biggest one, relatively speaking

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I thought that winter had some solid December snows.  Maybe it was more NNE.  I remember that holiday period being very snowy.

Didn’t get much of any snow in SNE until Xmas to New Years that December. We had about an inch early Xmas morning and then a larger warning event Dec 26-27 and then a solid 6-10 incher Dec 29th. The immediate coast got shafted until basically February. 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Didn’t get much of any snow in SNE until Xmas to New Years that December. We had about an inch early Xmas morning and then a larger warning event Dec 26-27 and then a solid 6-10 incher Dec 29th. The immediate coast got shafted until basically February. 

Yeah I thought I remembered some holiday week snows.  And maybe just before up here too.  One of the better skiing holiday weeks the past two decades I think if remembering it right. Feb 2013 obviously turned things around down south.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s a good look but there is energy into Cali as the short wave approaches east coast and the Rockies ridge de amplifies. That seems to be a reoccurring theme , just wave after wave of pacific energy crashing into west coast 

Destructive interference.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

It’s probably china lobbing cosmic dildos our way 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s probably china lobbing cosmic dildos our way 

Break the spirit of the weather weenies and you can dominate!

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

VP anomalies

?what are these?

[ORH_wxman]

Energy “crashing into the west coast” can go both ways. It can keep a system from cutting too and they can also temporarily amp up the ridge downstream of it…it all depends how the trough hitting the west coast is behaving. If it is n the process of digging, then it will help amp the ridge ahead of it, if it’s in the process of weakening, then it will act more like a kicker. 
 

A lot of big dogs had energy hitting the west coast…Jan 2016, Feb 2013, Boxing Day 2010, Feb 2001, Dec 1992….those are just the ones I know. But there are likely others too. 
 

We don’t know if it will help or hurt yet. It’s one of those nuances that isn’t really known at this type of lead time. 

[weatherwiz]

Our best potential/storm will probably end up coming from a clipper diving southeast out of Canada and developing south of Long Island. 

[DJln491]

14 hours ago, Heisy said:

Enjoy it for 12 hours



.

You nailed it.  Gone in 12 hours.  What causes that big of a difference from one model run to the next?  Is that standard to see those huge swings from large storm to nothing when it is this far out?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

You nailed.  Gone in 12 hours.  What causes that big of a difference from one model run to the next?  Is that standard to see those huge swings from large storm to nothing when it is this far out?

Yes 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

?what are these?

Velocity Potential Anomalies.  This is a measure of the divergent flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Your areas of blue shading are indicative of divergent flow at that level. This is where you may find your MJO convection because as air diverges or is evacuated aloft, you'll tend to have convergence of air near the surface. This convergence at the surface and divergence aloft helps to promote the convection.

[tamarack]

48 minutes ago, dryslot said:

They're great for getting core samples too, But you need snow to take one................

That's all I do with the Stratus in the cold season.  A few years back we had a pre-Christmas 2"+ RA followed by lows in the singles while we were out of state, and while the 5-gal bucket I substitute, with its slight taper, survived (with the bottom bulged downward), I've no confidence that the no-taper gauge with harder plastic would've withstood the sequence.  (The bigger bucket is better at accurately catching the snow, too, though with over 8" and/or with strong winds, it fails as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Mud cores.

Or doggie poo cores in NE CT.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s probably china lobbing cosmic dildos our way 

Or Bills mafia lobbing them into the Patriots endzone.

[dryslot]

32 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That's all I do with the Stratus in the cold season.  A few years back we had a pre-Christmas 2"+ RA followed by lows in the singles while we were out of state, and while the 5-gal bucket I substitute, with its slight taper, survived (with the bottom bulged downward), I've no confidence that the no-taper gauge with harder plastic would've withstood the sequence.  (The bigger bucket is better at accurately catching the snow, too, though with over 8" and/or with strong winds, it fails as well.

Yes Tom, Same here, Had to ruin one to find out leaving rainfall in the inner tube, Having it freeze solid and had a bulge expand in it was the last time in winter here as well.