UnitedWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 25 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Yup. Whole household has been dealing with waves of colds/viruses for couple of months. We have been all sick since after Christmas. Worst cold/flu season in a long time. Hope you all are better soon! We had strep and rsv here...just starting to feel better from that and now starting to get colds or something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Quick recheck: NY eve morning. Based on ensembles and ops through 06z/31. We are still in the game for a small snowfall, especially nw-ne suburbs. GFS and its GEFS suite flop back and forth cycle to cycle. Therefore on the fence...yes/no. Still want to see 3 consecutive runs of +snwdepth change, + I'd like the GGEM and EC to add some snow in this Jan 6 period. I think they will but am not certain. All depends on the shape of the weakening 500MB trough crossing the mid Atlantic states 06z/7 (see attached). If it's closed, we're in. Right now, there is a nice confluent zone to our north (see there 500mb attachment) and indications from the 50+ member NAEFS that it will be colder-quicker than previously thought (see attached 00z/6 BL temp) in degrees Celsius). The NAEFS trends seem to be becoming more favorable for a little snow. I'll check back NY Day... in the meantime. Attached the GEFS 06z 24 hour chance of 1+" of snow Jan 6. The NAEFS 500 MB pattern leading up to the event... and the NAEFS 00z/6 BL temp. Snow, if it's to occur, may begin Thursday evening the 5th??? Long Term Day 8-14 via NAEFS. No further cooling implied after what arrives Jan 6-7, but even with above normal temps, as many have said, snow is possible during the climo increasingly colder time of the year. Timing may be important. A small promising post from Walt. In a winter like this, we’ll take anything we can get . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Euro actually had a bit of snow on the 00z run for eastern MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Few quick comments on the 5th-7th.. Modest support in the GEF/EPS. Not enough for thread at this time, tho get the feeling we'll likely want to watch the period intently. It's a 'relaxed flow' ordeal, not a lot of potency - it's sort of 'threading the needle' on whether it is even powerful enough to deliver. But, by circumstance ...its physical presence in the models will tend to get mottled sooner, perhaps even lost altogether by D6's - implicitly, that means it may reshow in the 72 hour window. There a several jet "maxes" moving along with the ill-defined progressive L/W. I.e., noisy. There may be room to wonder about sampling proficiency out over the Pacific -which is the focus? All of which coming off the Pac in a somewhat unusual straight W-E inject... With minor differences in spacial-temporal place within that noise, it's been varying between a mere ANA-like bulge back along the boundary (in which case QPF is likely not reaching the ground), to a 06z GFS version, which shows some more modest cyclogen and mechanics making use of a marginal atmosphere..etc. This is the bread/olive oil before the 270-300 hr lasagna. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Say it ain't so...... Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, first pontiff to resign since 1415, dead at 95 He died on this forum many winter storms ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Slept about 12 hours and feeling much better this morning. Vids of him frolicking in tall grass, pics of his naked top half in the rain….now this. Ya wonder when he goes about his day and how he decides, “this is tweet worthy…a pic of my morning turd.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 This month is a lock for AN and not just by a half degree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 44 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Well the '22' part of winter 22-23 blew more chunks than Kevin. Here's to the '23 side of it. The year 2022 blew nothing but chunks, a totally boring year for weather enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Well the blizzard was fun, but yeah boring as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This month is a lock for AN and not just by a half degree. You starting to worry ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 It may never snow again. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You starting to worry ? Whatever happens, happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Ukie looked intriguing for next week too. It’s good to see a bit more non-GFS guidance trying to get something going. You’d still want to see the trailing shortwave trend more amped in future cycles to be more than a nuisance/advisory type event though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Few quick comments on the 5th-7th.. Modest support in the GEF/EPS. Not enough for thread at this time, tho get the feeling we'll likely want to watch the period intently. It's a 'relaxed flow' ordeal, not a lot of potency - it's sort of 'threading the needle' on whether it is even powerful enough to deliver. But, by circumstance ...its physical presence in the models will tend to get mottled sooner, perhaps even lost altogether by D6's - implicitly, that means it may reshow in the 72 hour window. There a several jet "maxes" moving along with the ill-defined progressive L/W. I.e., noisy. There may be room to wonder about sampling proficiency out over the Pacific -which is the focus? All of which coming off the Pac in a somewhat unusual straight W-E inject... With minor differences in spacial-temporal place meant within that noise, it's been varying between a mere ANA-like bulge back along the boundary (in which case QPF is likely not reaching the ground), to a 06z GFS version, which shows some more modest cyclogen and mechanics making use of a marginal atmosphere..etc. This is the bread/olive oil before the 270-300 hr lasagna. Hope springs eternal. Also, kudos to so you for what I think is the first "thread the needle" post of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 GEFS continues to lead the weenie train. EPS looks good, but also slowly pushes back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You starting to worry ? 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whatever happens, happens. That is code for, YES. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah the efforts to suppress Covid at civility scales ...world over, to varying degrees of success or not unfortunately means background immunity is uniquely set up for waves of 'normal' pathogens. This was predicted by super computing 2 years ago. I have nasty cold going on. Tested for C three times. Negative. Thing is, I did catch a hold of omicron back last April - it wasn't as bad this piece of shit I'm dealing with now. jesua That explains a big piece of it. But I believe there’s something else going on. Some recent studies out on how Covid weakens the immune system, especially right after getting over it. This is likely another big piece, and it’s been the pattern in my specific case. The propensity for Covid to trend towards pneumonia has always been the pathogenicity. If susceptibility to pneumonia goes up, I suspect it does too for a whole host of other viruses/bacteria. And yet there’s still more unknowns I believe contributing… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whatever happens, happens. Translated ” Yes Kev I am , there’s a lot I don’t like buf if I admit worry publicly here, the Pope has won” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: That explains a big piece of it. But I believe there’s something else going on. Some recent studies out on how Covid weakens the immune system, especially right after getting over it. This is likely another big piece, and it’s been the pattern in my specific case. And yet there’s still more unknowns I believe contributing… Sorry to learn of your demise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Translated ” Yes Kev I am , there’s a lot I don’t like buf if I admit worry publicly here, the Pope has won” “We should have used the geese to forecast” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: “We should have used the geese to forecast” Yea you really should have. 5 minutes of daily natural observations outperforming 5 weeks of model hugging. Well done. Modelologists making meteorology a farce. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That is code for, YES. Lol. Like I said, I just feel like as I get older it’s not a worry like I used to have. I can’t control it. Hopefully something later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 I have turkeys. Can I use those to forecast? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Well done. Modelologists making meteorology a farce. I called the head of the Mission Assurance division at my agency a modelologist a few weeks ago in a meeting. He sat back in his chair with a pleased/satisfied look on his face and then five minutes later said, “Hey!!!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Met fight!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 After this December, I’m definitely adding geese feeding habits to my list of tools to use for forecasting. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, das said: Mission Assurance division at my agency CIA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Pope a bit upset from the passing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie looked intriguing for next week too. It’s good to see a bit more non-GFS guidance trying to get something going. You’d still want to see the trailing shortwave trend more amped in future cycles to be more than a nuisance/advisory type event though. that's just about precisely where the sensitivity for this thing has been situated out there in space/time. Yup. From what I've been observing, anyway... The zonal careen of the Pacific jet is not an inherently good model performance circumstance - at least that was always the case. Distribution of wave mechanics that are entirely expressed in velocity deltas, much less in curved geometry... tends to lose features and wrongly emphasize others... I realize assimilation techniques and sat soundings have improved in the last 10 years. This modeled look across the Pac seems to be uniquely challenging, however - or I suspect it its. As you say, the trailing short wave...that's somewhere in here....good luck! There's several local maxims in there, and when looping this, it's almost impossible to tell which agglomerate into 'how much' and then gets delivered. Sort of looks like the model interpolation must estimate. And the problem with that is this is sensitive to as little as 10 or 15kts of jet momentum - could mean that trailer bends the boundary like an 06z GFS -type solution. Lol, all this writing over an event with a minor ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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