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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

P24 lol. That would change the vibes in this wack party in a hurry. 

Probably any solid warning event would. But not counting on anything for that threat. It would be a bonus if we got something though. 
 

If it’s gonna happen though we prob want to see some improvements on the 00z or 12z guidance here soon. 12z tomorrow puts us inside of 6 days and the key pieces will already be inside of 5 days. 

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2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’ve noticed almost every 6z and 18z run have had the storm for 4-5 days now and the 00z and 12zs lose it. Weird. 

That’s what me and Ray have been saying…what gives with these off hr runs?  We’ve said this for a couple yrs now, and it’s been met with “that is not the case anymore!”   Well obviously it still is the case.  And this is proof positive that it is still happening. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably any solid warning event would. But not counting on anything for that threat. It would be a bonus if we got something though. 
 

If it’s gonna happen though we prob want to see some improvements on the 00z or 12z guidance here soon. 12z tomorrow puts us inside of 6 days and the key pieces will already be inside of 5 days. 

It’s a slim chance thread the needle and while a warning event would get the DJ to turn on the speakers, a Feb 06 like outcome would have the party jumping “til 6 in the mornin’…”

 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a slim chance thread the needle and while a warning event would get the DJ to turn on the speakers, a Feb 06 like outcome would have the party jumping “til 6 in the mornin’…”

 

Feb 06 was a killer here…got 2 ft plus..it was awesome. It was gone in a week, but who cares when it crushes like that. Great storm here. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Feb 06 was a killer here…got 2 ft plus..it was awesome. It was gone in a week, but who cares when it crushes like that. Great storm here. 

I reference it because it is was not well modeled and happened in a crap pattern. It was also the JMA that popped it first and other models followed inside d5 iirc.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I reference it because it is was not well modeled and happened in a crap pattern. It was also the JMA that popped it first and other models followed inside d5 iirc.

Yup! I remember it well. Nobody took the JMA seriously obviously.  Yes a crap pattern..and it was a monster. Central Park also got crushed. 

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13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It may mean that I am too warm in February....the big storm bombarding the block, which hastened the onset of the thaw, and the potential weakening of la nina may have my February call in some peril.

We'll see...but this earlier thaw actually aligns better with my 1/6-1/20 storm window.

@Sey-Mour SnowThinking about it more, this probably moves the window up a week from 1/13 to 1/27...but the outlook is what it is and is graded as such. But if I were revising it now, I would probably go 1/13 to 1/27.

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14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah the efforts to suppress Covid at civility scales ...world over, to varying degrees of success or not unfortunately means background immunity is uniquely set up for waves of 'normal' pathogens.    This was predicted by super computing 2 years ago.   

I have nasty cold going on.  Tested for C three times. Negative.  Thing is, I did catch a hold of omicron back last April - it wasn't as bad this piece of shit I'm dealing with now.   jesua

Yup. Whole household has been dealing with waves of colds/viruses for couple of months. We have been all sick since after Christmas. Worst cold/flu season in a long time. :fever:

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