January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

My perspective on weather is that "if you aren't going to entertain me, then stay the fu*& out of my way"...IOW, no inconveniences or discomfort.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not me....nothing worse than cold and boring afoot parched and barren earth.

I love cold weather...

[WinterWolf]

I like it cold too…but I really don’t mind a warm up for a few days if it’s not gonna snow, or no chances for snow. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My perspective on weather is that "if you aren't going to entertain me, then stay the fu*& out of my way"...IOW, no inconveniences or discomfort.

I’m with you.  I’ve experienced enough cold and with no winter precipitation what’s the point?   I do however ultimately appreciate my long walks in deep cold so there’s some conflict....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I love cold weather...

To each their own...I mean, I will certainly take it over 90 and humid....but I just don't care to freeze after being blue balled by mother nature all of last March and now this December. I mean...I have had one warning event (Feb 25) since the blizzard that bent me over last January. Sorry, but that just isn't worth it...give me warmth.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

COC me all year round.

[WinterWolf]

Gorgeous here right now..50 plus degrees feels beautiful. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gorgeous here right now..50 plus degrees feels beautiful. 

Same here.  We love it.

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gorgeous here right now..50 plus degrees feels beautiful. 

Feels like October  Great day for outdoor work though. Also like I said after the 6Z GFS this antimeridian... lets watch the 6th/7th storm evolution change a dozen times between now and then

[dryslot]

If its not cold we can't make ice, I want it arctic Dec-March.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lots of folks/ landscapers out doing spring cleanups today . Saw one group installing some type of paver/brick patio 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ICON's a nasty ice storm for the Jan 5-7th signal...  It was a more impressive 00z solution than the other guidance.

I'm still not completely sold on this models usefulness one way or the other, but I see it listed out on the web and some times mentioned in AFDs in NWS and so forth.  It must get some street cred?      who knows.

But, the signal is still real folks.  It's not that far away anymore, either.   I'd like the see the GEFs come around. The EPS has some vague look at a coastal.

We're not in threat mode.  This is still signal eval.   I don't think we're going be sending 582 heights up to NJ this whole month though, so long as the numerical PNA index sustains, albeit modestly, a positive SD.   This in fact appears more related to hemispheric 'elasticity' in the rather abrupt/recent disappearance of the NAO blocking over the western limb. It is in fact a strong positive mode... but is presently ( I believe) over-compensated and will settle back.  Probably when/as this thing comes along next week is resonant timing. 

ya that threat is legit GFS had it a few days ago

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of folks/ landscapers out doing spring cleanups today . Saw one group installing some type of paver/brick patio 

I'll head out tomorrow most likely.  Do lawn clean up.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of folks/ landscapers out doing spring cleanups today . Saw one group installing some type of paver/brick patio 

probably see that here this weekend once the snow is gone

[HoarfrostHubb]

I will be happy when that ice blob at the end of my driveway is gone

[dryslot]

Icy look on the Euro in NNE on the 5th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I will be happy when that ice blob at the end of my driveway is gone

Been nearly a year since I have seen one of those.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Icy look on the Euro in NNE on the 5th.

Lots of confluence....yet another big low that tries to run west (shocking, I know) and is met with resistance...but probably not enough for SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like the location over Ohio at hr 180, but the problem is how it gets there....it drives up into Michigan first, before getting deflected ESE.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lots of confluence....yet another big low that tries to run west (shocking, I know) and is met with resistance...but probably not enough for SNE.

Have to get it to keep going under, Its been ticking slowly in that direction from a full blown cutter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Have to get it to keep going under, Its been ticking slowly in that direction from a full blown cutter.

Yea, the solution is in flux....northeast may be best....for once.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the location over Ohio at hr 180, but the problem is how it gets there....it drives up into Michigan first, before getting deflected SE.

Looking more SWFE'ish, The air mass is marginal though at best as it stands right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gonna need latitude with that.

[UMB WX]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Dave Epstein calling for low 60’s next Wednesday 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looking more SWFE'ish, The air mass is marginal though at best as it stands right now.

This (among many other) is probably the biggest limiting factor for this threat. Airmass is stale puke no matter how you slice it.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This (among many other) is probably the biggest limiting factor for this threat. Airmass is stale puke no matter how you slice it.

Not going to work for most, But i think NNE can still cash even if its marginal, My area probably wont unless this keeps sliding SE around the 5th, Better chance from the 8th on though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This (among many other) is probably the biggest limiting factor for this threat. Airmass is stale puke no matter how you slice it.

Yea, that is a page right out of the 2007-2008 playbook with a better airmass....but the primary originally making it to MI won't cut it with that airmass in SNE. No margin for error...even as we approach peak climo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not going to work for most, But i think NNE can still cash even if its marginal, My area probably wont unless this keeps sliding SE around the 5th, Better chance from the 8th on though.

Yep.

Window starts opening after that SWFE wannabe.

[Go Kart Mozart]

There's a sneaky sort of weenieism showing up in the models, especially the GFS.  Short wave lengths FTW?

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Dave Epstein calling for low 60’s next Wednesday 

Any references to a drought?