January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If we only lived at 10mb.

 

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That guy is ridiculous. 

I'm not saying you're wrong, ...you're right. The one thing I don't get about this forum is the fact that everyone seems to have to one up each other and put down each other when it comes to what's going to happen this season or what's not going happen.

What happened to just debating what could or couldn't happen without putting each other down or coming down hard on someone when they have something to say of a possible outcome. 

Trust me guys, I'm not sensitive. Just the banter that gets to me sometimes. And don't we have a category for that? Lol

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

 

I’d rather drink battery acid at this point than look at anymore of these long range charts.

I think we’ve kind of moved past that at this point. It’ll either produce or it won’t. Everyone here has been shoveling chart snow for over a month now 

[Chris12WX]

5 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gonna love this upcoming stretch of warmth.  If it ain't gonna be a biggie, let it torch.

Honestly have we all come around to the mentality that if it’s not going to snow then it might as well torch because I don’t have time for useless cold anymore? Because I have!

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, Chris12WX said:

Honestly have we all come around to the mentality that if it’s not going to snow then it might as well torch because I don’t have time for useless cold anymore? Because I have!

Personally, it's nice to have it cold around the holidays, even if it isn't snowy.  However, once New Year's passes, as much as I enjoy the interesting weather, if it's torching so-be-it.  I'm sure I'm in the minority...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we could still see 2010-2011 totals minus 20-30" or so...

So basically, Feb 2015 minus…80”? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So basically, Feb 2015 minus…80”? 

Yea, something like that...

[MJO812]

Gfs has a better pattern by January 6

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has a better pattern by January 6

Yeah, definitely chances, at least for the interior, starting next week.

[qg_omega]

9 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah, not sure where your info is from. It's not going to be 21 days though. I give it to the end of next week where we see the changes. About 10 days.

Right

[Snowcrazed71]

7 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Right

You can either join in the discussion or bow out gracefully. 

Poor soul

[Damage In Tolland]

Well the grass has finally turned brown after the 5 day freeze/cold snap. No more green lawns. Baby steps ?

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully the gfs guidance (op and ensemble) is correct. Not a fan of the euro stuff. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully the gfs guidance (op and ensemble) is correct. Not a fan of the euro stuff. 

GFS has schooled it where it counts this season....PAC.

[SJonesWX]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we could still see 2010-2011 totals minus 20-30" or so...

isn't there a better way of saying that? 2010-2011 minus 20-30" is a BN winter in most areas. so rather than compare it to 2010-2011, which is what you did, compare it to a BN season like, I don't know, 2021-2022?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

isn't there a better way of saying that? 2010-2011 minus 20-30" is a BN winter in most areas. so rather than compare it to 2010-2011, which is what you did, compare it to a BN season like, I don't know, 2021-2022?

That is not below normal in most of the area, first of all.

Secondly, I feel like I have been detailed enough with respect to my thoughts regarding this season.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't feel nervous about this in the slightest...TBH, I feel more confident than I did a month ago because I knew that I was betting on this season leaving something on the table....and now it has.

City	Predicted Snowfall	Actual	Forecast Error
Boston, MA	40-50"	?	?
NewYork, NY(Central Park)	25-35"	?	?
Philadelphia, PA	15-25"	?	?
Baltimore, MD	10-20"	?	?
Washington, DC	5-15"	?	?
Albany, NY	75-85"	?	?
Hartford, CT	50-60"	?	?
Providence, RI	30-40"	?	?
Worcester, MA	75-85"	?	?
Tolland, CT	55-65"	?	?
Methuen, MA	60-70"	?	?
Hyannis, MA	20-30"	?	?
Burlington, VT	90-100"	?	?
Portland, ME	85-95"	?	?
Concord, NH	80-90"	?	?

 

[SJonesWX]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is not below normal in most area, first of all.

Secondly, I feel like I have been detailed enough with respect to my thoughts regarding this season.

 

damn, you beat me to my edit. 2010-2011 took a while to get rolling up here, not much until 1/12. but ended up decently AN (90". BUT, again up here, take away 20-30", and you get 60-70", which is a 10" BN to 10" AN 

yes I know you have been detailed in your outlook, i have read it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

damn, you beat me to my edit. 2010-2011 took a while to get rolling up here, not much until 1/12. but ended up decently AN (90". BUT, again up here, take away 20-30", and you get 60-70", which is a 10" BN to 10" AN 

yes I know you have been detailed in your outlook, i have read it. 

Sorry, I just feel like I spend all of this time articulating my thoughts on the season in one package, and then people read waaay too much into what I post in casual dialogue on a chat forum. Mostly Raindance, but I guess I projected that frustration onto you a bit.

I'm probably most nervous about my February thoughts....any official SSW would be a deviation from the expected, so hopefully it occurs early in January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I try to get out a December wrap up and January update today or tomorrow.

[Go Kart Mozart]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully the gfs guidance (op and ensemble) is correct. Not a fan of the euro stuff. 

Is it just me, or did the ensembles take a small step in the wrong direction last night?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is it just me, or did the ensembles take a small step in the wrong direction last night?

I’m not really keeping track to be honest. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not really keeping track to be honest. 

Ditto.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is it just me, or did the ensembles take a small step in the wrong direction last night?

Models tend to rush sweeping AK troughs away. At least it gives folks plenty of time to apply padding and cushions in their homes…to safely track and react to the winter of 22/23. 

[SJonesWX]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry, I just feel like I spend all of this time articulating my thoughts on the season in one package, and then people read waaay too much into what I post in casual dialogue on a chat forum. Mostly Raindance, but I guess I projected that frustration onto you a bit.

I'm probably most nervous about my February thoughts....any official SSW would be a deviation from the expected, so hopefully it occurs early in January.

no sweat man. I was just giving you shit. i just thought your post was oddly worded, but after reading it and your response, I get the gist of what you were saying. if I read it right, what you mean is that you expect the remainder of this season to be play out similar to 2010-2011, with less snow. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not really keeping track to be honest. 

Yeah, it ain’t really worth it right now. Shades fully closed until at least the 12th probably 15th here 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry, I just feel like I spend all of this time articulating my thoughts on the season in one package, and then people read waaay too much into what I post in casual dialogue on a chat forum. Mostly Raindance, but I guess I projected that frustration onto you a bit.

I'm probably most nervous about my February thoughts....any official SSW would be a deviation from the expected, so hopefully it occurs early in January.

Just no one asked me but I'm not sure any SSW would really be very coherently noticeable above an AO index that has been convincingly behaving in the wrong correlation space already - and already negative.   If the AO persists in doing what it has been, any SSW's eventual time-lagged influence on the domain would be absorbed in the cloth. 

I mean ...I said 'wrong space' there, but the correlation coefficients between it, and the rest of the planet, has the AO operating in the lesser correlation likeliness.    It's not really the point I was making  though.   I have been watching these SSW and their apparent effectiveness in modulating the AOs since I first brought this to the attention of the forums back in 2005 ( jesus christ...), and I was admittedly more hot to trot about them back whence, than I am now, for that journey.  There have been those that have come and gone ...no influence on temperature anomalies over N/A.. Then there were those that came and 20 days later, there was... So flip a coin.  I have come to a fairly confident conclusion that they are the polar version of the MJO in terms of how/what they can do to the system.  They modulate, don't drive - ...so I'm wondering in my point yet again.  Seems I do that a lot.  Ha. 

Well, maybe not wondering too much, because those years of being non-parse-able within destructive interference hemisphere ( 'cloth') is that coin flip.

Indirectly related aspect..  We've had this conversation before ... telecons have been disrupted over the last 10 years.   CC or random patterns emerging out of complex systems that lie ...  whatever fits our narrative(s) being the cause.  I don't know if that is related?  Could be.  But below was not just oddly spaced below the 0 SD line, but represents a truly massive integral  ....

And doesn't just go against the correlation.  It does so with mocking audacity.   Especially considering the robustly well established, coupled La Nina.  SSWs in the data, in the past, don't cause what we see above - not to that extent. 

Also, the spread out there is not ignored and relates to my feelings on January. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Really the earliest chance for anything would prob be around 1/6-1/7…so we snooze for now. 
 

There’s so much spread on the state of the PAC, I’m not going to get too invested in trying to analyze the guidance. There’s still a generally improving look in the tropics so I’m cautiously optimistic the deeper we get into January but there’s far from any guarantees. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just no one asked me but I'm not sure any SSW would really be very coherently noticeable above an AO index that has been convincingly behaving in the wrong correlation space already - and already negative.   If the AO persists in doing what it has been, any SSW's eventual time-lagged influence on the domain would be absorbed in the cloth. 

I mean ...I said 'wrong space' there, but the correlation coefficients between it, and the rest of the planet, has the AO operating in the lesser correlation likeliness.    It's not really the point I was making  though.   I have been watching these SSW and their apparent effectiveness in modulating the AOs since I first brought this to the attention of the forums back in 2005 ( jesus christ...), and I was admittedly more hot to trot about them back whence, than I am now, for that journey.  There have been those that have come and gone ...no influence on temperature anomalies over N/A.. Then there were those that came and 20 days later, there was... So flip a coin.  I have come to a fairly confident conclusion that they are the polar version of the MJO in terms of how/what they can do to the system.  They modulate, don't drive - ...so I'm wondering in my point yet again.  Seems I do that a lot.  Ha. 

Well, maybe not wondering too much, because those years of being non-parse-able within destructive interference hemisphere ( 'cloth') is that coin flip.

Indirectly related aspect..  We've had this conversation before ... telecons have been disrupted over the last 10 years.   CC or random patterns emerging out of complex systems that lie ...  whatever fits our narrative(s) being the cause.  I don't know if that is related?  Could be.  But below was not just oddly spaced below the 0 SD line, but represents a truly massive integral  ....

And doesn't just go against the correlation.  It does so with mocking audacity.   Especially considering the robustly well established, coupled La Nina.  SSWs in the data, in the past, don't cause what we see above - not to that extent. 

Also, the spread out there is not ignored and relates to my feelings on January. 

 

Yes, SSW are a definite wild card...really all I meant to imply. But regardless of how it manifested (or didn't) itself in the pattern, I didn't expect one in the technical sense, so that would be a curve ball that may or may not alter what was expected in at least a portion of February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

no sweat man. I was just giving you shit. i just thought your post was oddly worded, but after reading it and your response, I get the gist of what you were saying. if I read it right, what you mean is that you expect the remainder of this season to be play out similar to 2010-2011, with less snow. 

I only worded it that way because I had just made a post to the effect that although the season may play out similarly, its unwise to anticipate as much snow as we had in 2010-2011 and December is a good example of why.