January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Go Kart Mozart]

I am assuming we did not have a cataclysmic cooling of the oceans on December 1st...a statistical adjustment maybe?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 512high said:

Tip, you will be in charge of starting a thread when we get closer to "threat"...(unless your apprentice George starts one tonight etc. Haha) 

I'm glad you put that in quotes for that particular time frame, because we are no where near threat on that.  Heh.  Maybe..

That was really more about the earliest a signal that has a chance to take on a wintry profile.   Some of the operational GFS runs have been outright doing that.  And there's a fair amount of individual GEF member representation, too.  That's about all...   The entire op ed was mostly about idiosyncrasies with the warm up, then followed by a some sort of paradigm shift. 

As rocking chair pipe smoke folklore, 'first it gets warm. Then it gets cold:  boom'    There's some sort of a truth buried in there.  Kinda like, 'red sky at morning, sailors take warning...' is a bit of 'lore that bears some logic - they are not all wholly bears.

But for this context, if it's warmer than normal, and the pattern shifts cold, there's liable to be a correction event somewhere in there or near by in time and space.   

[512high]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm glad you put that in quotes for that particular time frame, because we are no where near threat on that.  Heh.  Maybe..

That was really more about the earliest a signal that has a chance to take on a wintry profile.   Some of the operational GFS runs have been outright doing that.  And there's a fair amount of individual GEF member representation, too.  That's about all...   The entire op ed was mostly about idiosyncrasies with the warm up, then followed by a some sort of paradigm shift. 

As rocking chair pipe smoke folklore, 'first it gets warm. Then it gets cold:  boom'    There's some sort of a truth buried in there.  Kinda like, 'red sky at morning, sailors take warning...' is a bit of 'lore that bears some logic - they are not all wholly bears.

But for this context, if it's warmer than normal, and the pattern shifts cold, there's liable to be a correction event somewhere in there or near by in time and space.   

Tip, I wrote that in "good fun", as you say or have said in the past this current pattern sucks (my words) for "winter enthusiast ", we or most for weeks keep hearing "change is on the way", then as we approach so called time allotted , BAM it never developed or went south or north etc. It is very frustrating but no one has control over this, always look forward to you, and the others that see something in the distance and state so, just so dam boring as we approach January. Happy New Year to you!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 512high said:

Tip, I wrote that in "good fun", as you say or have said in the past this current pattern sucks (my words) for "winter enthusiast ", we or most for weeks keep hearing "change is on the way", then as we approach so called time allotted , BAM it never developed or went south or north etc. It is very frustrating but no one has control over this, always look forward to you, and the others that see something in the distance and state so, just so dam boring as we approach January. Happy New Year to you!

I know.

But as far as the pattern and the general reader: it did change. It changed for the better, too.  Clad and true. 

It didn't produce.  Tough shit on you.  That's life.

That is the breaks.   Pattern change does not automatically guarantee jack shit.  Let's adult this for a minute.

This engagement is with the public... pointing out the obvious.  Engagement in the court of public opinion is purely "an objectively, fair, and cutting edge intelligent" adjudication. Once one survives that comPLETELY non-persecuting pat on the back by the Lord Of The Flies...  there is then the reality that we got a historic bomb out of it, one that same judging consortium is grumps acknowledgement.  haha.  Sometimes this feels like we're trying to appeal to a psyche ward.  

Just saying ... in general.    Tough shit. I don't know...I consider the whole thing an incredible success actually.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like we all stay above freezing at night starting Thursday right thru day 10. At almost coldest Climo time of year.. that is nauseating . What a disaster winter thus far 

[78Blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like we all stay above freezing at night starting Thursday right thru day 10. At almost coldest Climo time of year.. that is nauseating . What a disaster winter thus far 

Looks like we're dead in the water here at least through mid January. 

[CoastalWx]

By then tushies will be getting warmer.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Increased ocean temps = tsunamis and hurricanes .

Sooner or late NYC would have to worry about hurricanes more than snow.

Not even hurricanes. Just regular coastal storms will lead to major coastal flooding

Florida will be the first to go. It'll be nothing but a sea of red hats by then 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Gonna love this upcoming stretch of warmth.  If it ain't gonna be a biggie, let it torch.

[kdxken]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gonna love this upcoming stretch of warmth.  If it ain't gonna be a biggie, let it torch.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, kdxken said:

Let's trend that S & E. 

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gonna love this upcoming stretch of warmth.  If it ain't gonna be a biggie, let it torch.

Yeah since I'm not skier or snow mobiller I really like working outside at above freezing temps in January. 

This looks to be an extended stretch too. Might start a project or two...

[78Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Yeah since I'm not skier or snow mobiller I really like working outside at above freezing temps in January. 

This looks to be an extended stretch too. Might start a project or two...

Yeah, it will give me a chance to get the rest of the leaves that blew in here last week from neighbors who were too lazy to pick them up in November.

[Damage In Tolland]

49 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Looks like we're dead in the water here at least through mid January. 

That will mean over a month between snow in most of SNE .. And most will be under 7”. No way in hell this turns around into even normal snowfall IMO

[weathafella]

42 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Yeah, it will give me a chance to get the rest of the leaves that blew in here last week from neighbors who were too lazy to pick them up in November.

I have the leave issue but most blew in from the woods-probably under a bag’s worth but they are congregating at the back door.

In other news-my new snow blower was delivered today.  I hope I remember how to use it when the time comes.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice drift. Erie county

[Lava Rock]

Looks like we all stay above freezing at night starting Thursday right thru day 10. At almost coldest Climo time of year.. that is nauseating . What a disaster winter thus far 

Shaping up to be subpar. By the time things turn around, it's middle of Jan and we've easy lost one solid month, maybe 6 wks of winter, depending how one looks at it.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don’t know…. It looks like mid Jan for most of SNE unless something sneaks up. Hopefully it’s not longer than that.

 

tik tok.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

8-14 with lollis to 20

[Baroclinic Zone]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That will mean over a month between snow in most of SNE .. And most will be under 7”. No way in hell this turns around into even normal snowfall IMO

2014/15 says otherwise 

Virtually snowless up to February 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

Yeah, it will give me a chance to get the rest of the leaves that blew in here last week from neighbors who were too lazy to pick them up in November.

I still had/have leaves on my trees now.  A lot finally came down in mid December but I never had a chance to blow them away.  Now they’re currently stuck to grass from rain and freeze.

[MJO812]

Threat at 240 on the models

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Threat at 240 on the models

 

On 12/21/2022 at 1:07 PM, MJO812 said:

308 hours

308 hours looked great with this current pattern and look. No snow.

We should all stop posting the ensembles past 200 hours. 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That will mean over a month between snow in most of SNE .. And most will be under 7”. No way in hell this turns around into even normal snowfall IMO

Ok.. so then this Winter will be below normal. What do you think we should do? Should we close the winter thread down?

From what you're saying, it doesn't seem viable to keep the forum going ( as far as the Winter season goes for us in the east ). I'd rather that than keep seeing you beat yourself up like you are. 

Me myself... I'm staying on the forum. Something will come up to get us all back in the game. If not this Winter season than the next. 

 

[Whineminster]

Then the cold will come back in April and May to deliver us days of cold gray with occasional meowpaws.  How it always goes.....

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

 

Desperate

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

2014/15 says otherwise 

Virtually snowless up to February 

‘12-13 too for coastal areas (interior had some good events prior)

But those years weren’t Ninas. Gotta hope for a year like ‘55-56 or ‘00-01 in the second half if we’re gonna do it in a Niña. 
 

The one positive we have going is the huge blocking that already showed up. Those types of blocking episodes tend to be a harbinger of future blocking later that same winter. Not always but more often than not. 

I’m not seeing much blocking though returning yet on guidance. Mostly just the PNA turning positive. 

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Desperate

Your going to be a whole lot more desperate come March 1st. 

[78Blizzard]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Threat at 240 on the models

If you're talking about the GFS, forget it.  We know how their 8-day threats have turned out lately, let alone a 10-day threat.

[Ginx snewx]

57 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

2014/15 says otherwise 

Virtually snowless up to February 

Jan 27th.