January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[bwt3650]

41 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I see no chances for anything before MLK weekend, NNE included

We'll see 18 from last Friday through this Weds and I'll take the over we go 21 days in January with nothing.

[SJonesWX]

6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

We'll see 18 from last Friday through this Weds and I'll take the over we go 21 days in January with nothing.

no offense, but please don’t respond to that troll. He/she offers nothing of value and always seeks to be the contrarian. the ignore function is a wonderful thing 

[eduggs]

The Dunning-Kruger effect neatly illustrates so much of what we observe both in life and on this board.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and we’re prob waiting longer in SNE. At least the pattern change is moving forward on the ensembles. We’re not yet seeing it get pushed back which is about all you can ask for at the moment. Hopefully that doesn’t change but it’s always a possibility. 

I don't see the next pattern change any different than the last.  The only caveat is we are getting near peak temp mins.  The biggest caveat is we will have not seen a preceding period of much cold/snow so that may offset low level cold in SWFE's. 

That SE Ridge looks like a pig and is going to take some time to beat down.  I give it till mid month where it becomes more favorable to "majority" for more wintry outcomes.

Nina's just seem to wreak havoc on modeling with the PAC.  @brooklynwx99has posted great info on this.

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

We'll see 18 from last Friday through this Weds and I'll take the over we go 21 days in January with nothing.

Take the over?

[cleetussnow]

6 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Do you know of a place that will accept bets on "warm"?

He wang is stretched.  Hoping for a reach around from the Urals.  

[Modfan2]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and we’re prob waiting longer in SNE. At least the pattern change is moving forward on the ensembles. We’re not yet seeing it get pushed back which is about all you can ask for at the moment. Hopefully that doesn’t change but it’s always a possibility. 

Hoping something by the 12th, friends in from FL chasing snow, and surprise no snow lol!

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

We'll see 18 from last Friday through this Weds and I'll take the over we go 21 days in January with nothing.

His posts aren’t serious and shouldn’t be considered so. 

[WinterWolf]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

His posts aren’t serious and shouldn’t be considered so. 

Thank you.
Ya he lives under a bridge in NYC, and is known as a Troll.  

[SJonesWX]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thank you.
Ya he lives under a bridge in NYC, and is known as a Troll.  

and should not be allowed to post here. even 5 is too many

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

no offense, but please don’t respond to that troll. He/she offers nothing of value and always seeks to be the contrarian. the ignore function is a wonderful thing 

Done

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Take the over?

If you need a friend... Let us know. 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thank you.
Ya he lives under a bridge in NYC, and is known as a Troll.  

The anti-George.

[Hailstoned]

4 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

After reading this in the second sentence of the article I stopped reading:

"According to NASA, 2022 was one of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth."

Given the short history of recorded temperatures on earth, this was meant to scare people about the global warming craze.  Considering the source, "Wired", I'm not surprised.

 

Global warning craze?? Wait till the migration of "sane" climate refugees to our relatively unscathed, northeast U.S.A.

[Hailstoned]

4 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

Yeah, the Interior Department is giving money to Native American tribes to help them relocate away from areas that are vulnerable to climate change, potentially creating a model for other communities around the country.

I want some money for my area that the awful climate change has kept snowstorms away from lately.  

 

Oh, and no doubt your smugness would remain if for the first time in thousands of years the solid earth under you (tundra) became mush (climate change). This is what's happening to those Alaskan Native Americans. Just like other fire ravaged/drought ravaged/hurricane ravaged Americans, they're seeking help. Are these Native Americans somehow less deserving?

[Typhoon Tip]

There’s likely to be an exitus out of California at some point in the next 20 to 40 years. 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Hailstoned said:

Global warning craze?? Wait till the migration of "sane" climate refugees to our relatively unscathed, northeast U.S.A.

 

1 hour ago, Hailstoned said:

Oh, and no doubt your smugness would remain if for the first time in thousands of years the solid earth under you (tundra) became mush (climate change). This is what's happening to those Alaskan Native Americans. Just like other fire ravaged/drought ravaged/hurricane ravaged Americans, they're seeking help. Are these Native Americans somehow less deserving?

Take this nonsense to banter. Thanks. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There’s likely to be an exitus out of California at some point in the next 20 to 40 years. 

Its happening already.  Cali lost a couple of congressional reps and had to do some redistricting. Same with NY.  Each have lost probably 200,000 since the last census.  

[FRWEATHA]

9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Its happening already.  Cali lost a couple of congressional reps and had to do some redistricting. Same with NY.  Each have lost probably 200,000 since the last census.  

And it has nothing to do with climate.

[dendrite]

Let’s stick to weather.

The GFS is pressing these cold airmasses a little more SE behind each front. 1/6-9 is a lot more wintry into SNE this run.

[bwt3650]

Let’s stick to weather.
The GFS is pressing these cold airmasses a little more SE behind each front. 1/6-9 is a lot more wintry into SNE this run.

Even 1/3 looks much colder on the front end up here. Maybe escape the torch with just one Rainer?


.

[UnitedWx]

Agreed. And at least there's something to look at in the 1/7 time-frame. Does George have a tread up yet?....

[mahk_webstah]

From GYX:  what the hell does this mean?  

Valley within close spatial and temporal proximity.  At this time it
is unclear how these shortwaves will interact and whether or not an
organized low pressure system will develop or if the areas of low
pressure stay separate creating an extended period of unsettled
conditions for the weekend.  The most recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble
runs bring the main batch of widespread rain Sunday while the CMC
solutions indicate an earlier and less organized arrival of rain
Saturday.  The area these shortwaves trace back to currently sits
south of the Aleutian`s in the North Pacific with poor sampling.
interactions between these shortwaves will be better resolved once
this area moves closer to shore.  The extended period closes out
with the cold season signature potential low pressure system midweek.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6z gfs is Kevin’s dream storm for Jan 6-8. That storm has had a wintry signal on gfs for the past 3-4 days. 

[512high]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z gfs is Kevin’s dream storm for Jan 6-8. That storm has had a wintry signal for the past 3-4 days. 

Please don't say ice....... just looking for a old fashion snowstorm

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z gfs is Kevin’s dream storm for Jan 6-8. That storm has had a wintry signal for the past 3-4 days. 

It’ll never happen

[CoastalWx]

Euro guidance still ugly in that time frame. Look past the first week and if something sneaks up, it’s a bonus. 

[SJonesWX]

18 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Noticed that sun angle creeping up already this AM around 6, and now this afternoon!

yeah I am sure you could really tell the difference between the 21st and 26th:

Dec 21: 1.71 degrees

Dec 26: 2.10 degrees

That extra 0.39 degrees I am sure makes a big difference

Source

for reference, the sun angle on June 26 is 35.24 degrees

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

From GYX:  what the hell does this mean?  

Valley within close spatial and temporal proximity.  At this time it
is unclear how these shortwaves will interact and whether or not an
organized low pressure system will develop or if the areas of low
pressure stay separate creating an extended period of unsettled
conditions for the weekend.  The most recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble
runs bring the main batch of widespread rain Sunday while the CMC
solutions indicate an earlier and less organized arrival of rain
Saturday.  The area these shortwaves trace back to currently sits
south of the Aleutian`s in the North Pacific with poor sampling.
interactions between these shortwaves will be better resolved once
this area moves closer to shore.  The extended period closes out
with the cold season signature potential low pressure system midweek.

 

Sounds like a stammering, still buzzed from Christmas cheer dissertation lol. They must be drooling over the 6Z GFS per that last sentence

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

From GYX:  what the hell does this mean?  

Valley within close spatial and temporal proximity.  At this time it
is unclear how these shortwaves will interact and whether or not an
organized low pressure system will develop or if the areas of low
pressure stay separate creating an extended period of unsettled
conditions for the weekend.  The most recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble
runs bring the main batch of widespread rain Sunday while the CMC
solutions indicate an earlier and less organized arrival of rain
Saturday.  The area these shortwaves trace back to currently sits
south of the Aleutian`s in the North Pacific with poor sampling.
interactions between these shortwaves will be better resolved once
this area moves closer to shore.  The extended period closes out
with the cold season signature potential low pressure system midweek.

 

You know what that reminds me of, that first sentence fragment there ?  

It's like when you've activated the vocal detection for chat/txting too quickly on the heels of finishing a conversation you're having with some other vector.  That blurb about "..Valley ...spatial temporal..." jazz sounds like a small piece of a larger discussion happening, like it were over the shoulder, then turning the face toward mic. Then didn't realize that got picked up.  I've done that... I've sent texts and got googly eyes back, and I look at it and I'm wondering where it came from, and then I remember.  

But, that's a fine story - don't know if it applies to NWS back office shenanigans.