January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

People jumping off bridges, sucking tailpipes etc 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Do you know of a place that will accept bets on "warm"?

[Typhoon Tip]

I realize it's extended circumstance ...and I'd certainly not wish to award myself a 'bun', but that event that could host ice/mix has been very persistent among the operational GFS out there between Jan5-8th. Noticing more than 1/2 of the GEF's individual members flagging some sort of trough eject up underneath and tendency for polar/+PP N of Maine ( regardless of whatever that means outside one's window).  Meanwhile.... we maintain a modest +PNA hemisphere ( even though the PNAP aspect is apparently absent )... It just means it could break differently if that weight is leaning on the pattern... 

It will moderate this week, no question.  'How much so'. 

Folks need to remember how gossamer warmth and the patterns that support can be at this time of year. They are intrinsically fragile.  And it's interesting, with chance for excessiveness in 'swing' potential. 60s could replace with 37 and grits with the ambient boundary suppression under poorly modeled if unseen modestly confluent flow over SE Canada ... 

I see the D4-6 warm up pulse as in jeopardy down to the Mass/NH border for BD...  BUT, okay 'if' that avoids. We'll bake, relative to seasonality/climo.  The 2-meter T in the guidance are whack and clearly not seeing the mixing potential where ever the evolving dome is allowed proxy over the surface - at the end of the week/weekend.  Bust potential?  rather high.  Synoptic recognition combined with +11C at 850 mb outside of any said correction hooking around the Whites' cordillera would be in the mid to upper 60s. 

[brooklynwx99]

last winter had a historic blizzard lmao

one seems to find a way to happen every year aside from the complete shutouts (2011-12, 2019-20), so no need to can an entire winter this early

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

last winter had a historic blizzard lmao

one seems to find a way to happen every year aside from the complete shutouts (2011-12, 2019-20), so no need to can an entire winter this early

I prefer my annual snow to come in one large dump like last year.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I prefer my annual snow to come in one large dump like last year.

Agree!   Last year I managed somewhat above normal snow from 4 events.   Meanwhile my walking was not severely curtailed by ice and snow otg/walking paths.

[Torch Tiger]

Noticed that sun angle creeping up already this AM around 6, and now this afternoon!

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Noticed that sun angle creeping up already this AM around 6, and now this afternoon!

When I saw that Tip had posted here and not created a separate thread, I was wondering if it would be about added solar warmth to his car. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

So 2-3wks.

Shades remain open, the next 2 weeks are expected to be mild due to the circular polar vortex (only the first week torches) but it can still snow in bad patterns in New England. We track 

[moneypitmike]

58 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Agree!   Last year I managed somewhat above normal snow from 4 events.   Meanwhile my walking was not severely curtailed by ice and snow otg/walking paths.

I had just come in from a walk and thought 'on the plus side not worries about clipping on ice this year'.

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

colder after the torch. Now there’s a bold proclamation!

[moneypitmike]

Great forecast to continue boat shopping.

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The writing is on the wall unfortunately. No reason to look at long range thru rose colored glasses.  Just setting selves up for more heartbreak 

 

 

 

 

[Heisy]

This is the first wave to take on the ridge, stronger on today’s euro. As tip mentioned there is a wave after this that right now probably favors interior, but def some interest on ensembles for your region. Imo root for this first wave to trend stronger for any follow up around 7-9th


.

[weathafella]

26 minutes ago, George001 said:

Shades remain open, the next 2 weeks are expected to be mild due to the circular polar vortex (only the first week torches) but it can still snow in bad patterns in New England. We track 

That’s not why it’s mild George.   Parts of the country will be aob.  

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is the first wave to take on the ridge, stronger on today’s euro. As tip mentioned there is a wave after this that right now probably favors interior, but def some interest on ensembles for your region. Imo root for this first wave to trend stronger for any follow up around 7-9th


.

Nothing says January like 591 heights in the west Atlantic….

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nothing says January like 591 heights in the west Atlantic….

It's important... 

[ORH_wxman]

I could see 1/5-6 being more interesting for NNE and perhaps down into interior SNE if we get a bit more compression up north as Tip mentioned. 
 

Longwave pattern though becomes more favorable a few days beyond that. 
 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I could see 1/5-6 being more interesting for NNE and perhaps down into interior SNE if we get a bit more compression up north as Tip mentioned. 
 

Longwave pattern though becomes more favorable a few days beyond that. 
 

Yup.  That's the next legit shot in New England.

[78Blizzard]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Uh oh

https://www.wired.com/story/climate-environment-hurricane/

El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared

After reading this in the second sentence of the article I stopped reading:

"According to NASA, 2022 was one of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth."

Given the short history of recorded temperatures on earth, this was meant to scare people about the global warming craze.  Considering the source, "Wired", I'm not surprised.

 

[WinterWolf]

37 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

After reading this in the second sentence of the article I stopped reading:

"According to NASA, 2022 was one of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth."

Given the short history of recorded temperatures on earth, this was meant to scare people about the global warming craze.  Considering the source, "Wired", I'm not surprised.

 

Smart move…shit like that is absolute buffoonery!  Yet there are folks who believe that garbage. 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Smart move…shit like that is absolute buffoonery!  Yet there are folks who believe that garbage. 

Yeah, the Interior Department is giving money to Native American tribes to help them relocate away from areas that are vulnerable to climate change, potentially creating a model for other communities around the country.

I want some money for my area that the awful climate change has kept snowstorms away from lately.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

53 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

After reading this in the second sentence of the article I stopped reading:

"According to NASA, 2022 was one of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth."

Given the short history of recorded temperatures on earth, this was meant to scare people about the global warming craze.  Considering the source, "Wired", I'm not surprised.

 

“Recorded” means since official measurements were taken. Though we know by proxy that it hasn’t been this warm for a long time….certainly the past 1100-1200 years and possibly not since the early Holocene. I don’t have an issue with the temperature claims. 
 

Biggest problem with those articles is the attribution dialogue. They get so many things wrong too often (such as the incorrect relationship they stated between hurricanes and El Niño) that it renders the article mostly worthless. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yup.  That's the next legit shot in New England.

Yeah and we’re prob waiting longer in SNE. At least the pattern change is moving forward on the ensembles. We’re not yet seeing it get pushed back which is about all you can ask for at the moment. Hopefully that doesn’t change but it’s always a possibility. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and we’re prob waiting longer in SNE. At least the pattern change is moving forward on the ensembles. We’re not yet seeing it get pushed back which is about all you can ask for at the moment. Hopefully that doesn’t change but it’s always a possibility. 

Looks like GEFS and GEPS pushed back a bit.  EPS looked fine but GEFS led the charge in pacific last pattern change. 

[mahk_webstah]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

“Recorded” means since official measurements were taken. Though we know by proxy that it hasn’t been this warm for a long time….certainly the past 1100-1200 years and possibly not since the early Holocene. I don’t have an issue with the temperature claims. 
 

Biggest problem with those articles is the attribution dialogue. They get so many things wrong too often (such as the incorrect relationship they stated between hurricanes and El Niño) that it renders the article mostly worthless. 

Thanks for the reasoned response.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like GEFS and GEPS pushed back a bit.  EPS looked fine but GEFS led the charge in pacific last pattern change. 

I feel like the GEFS actually change the pattern earlier than the EPS but it just never gets as favorable as the EPS. 
 

Like here’s D11…EPS looks worse than GEFS here:

 

 

But by the time we get to D13-14, the EPS looks a lot better in the PAC but I’d don’t really hate either look:

[qg_omega]

I see no chances for anything before MLK weekend, NNE included

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like the GEFS actually change the pattern earlier than the EPS but it just never gets as favorable as the EPS. 
 

Like here’s D11…EPS looks worse than GEFS here:

 

 

But by the time we get to D13-14, the EPS looks a lot better in the PAC but I’d don’t really hate either look:

Ya true, definitely would prefer the EPS to verify verbatim.

[ineedsnow]

Maybe we can get a good icestorm out of that