HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 1 minute ago, alex said: Amazing that we manage to rain with a low going over the Cape lol At least it doesn’t look disastrous for NNE with regards to snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At least there’s some clear light at end of tunnel. Gonna be a torch 10 days though between 12/29 and 1/7ish. Patters being patterns, I'd toss that light (and tunnel) as far as I could throw it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: At least it doesn’t look disastrous for NNE with regards to snowpack. Yeah - at least the manmade snowpack. The natural will be so thin by then that its preservation is essentially meaningless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 By the sounds of a bunch of you, you sound like whiny defeated children. Winter has a ways to go. There will some winter and some surprises. A lot of you seem to want to have winter for the entire season of winter which never happens, especially in southern New England. Let's focus on what might happen and if this winter turns out to be a bust, it's a bust. There's always another year. Now just wait for the fun comments from my post. Look at me something good to laugh about 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 30 minutes ago, alex said: Amazing that we manage to rain with a low going over the Cape lol 30s in Quebec is not the antecedent air mass we’re looking for. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At least there’s some clear light at end of tunnel. Gonna be a torch 10 days though between 12/29 and 1/7ish. Thaw looks to end up being about a week earlier than I had thought back in early November, as it's the first week of of January instead of the second. Considering that most of us struck out on the first big pattern, I would rather the timeline speed up so as to salvage more peak climo. I had expected a mild February, but keep in mind that I did NOT anticipate a SSW....so if that works out, then all bets are off for Feb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thaw looks to end up being about a week earlier than I had thought back in early November, as it's the first week of of January instead of the second. Considering that most of us struck out on the first big pattern, I would rather the timeline speed up so as to salvage more peak climo. I had expected a mild February, but keep in mind that I did NOT anticipate a SSW....so if that works out, then all bets are off for Feb. I think the thaw sped up due to the body blow that the block took from that big low last week...probably would have lasted longer had that not been forced to amplify so far west and barrel into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thaw looks to end up being about a week earlier than I had thought back in early November, as it's the first week of of January instead of the second. Considering that most of us struck out on the first big pattern, I would rather the timeline speed up so as to salvage more peak climo. I had expected a mild February, but keep in mind that I did NOT anticipate a SSW....so if that works out, then all bets are off for Feb. SSW is prob the best path to salvaging a big winter if it’s going to happen. Typically Feb/Mar climo isn’t so kind in Ninas but as we saw in ‘00-01, ‘17-18 or ‘55-56, big blocking in latter stages of La Niña winters can do very big damage. It would help if we could rock for a couple weeks in January too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the pattern will flip around the 10th as the ULL off the WC retrogrades westward towards the Aleutians when the Pacific jet retracts this is well agreed upon by ensembles and it makes sense, so this is a break more than anything else. the hints of Scandinavian ridging also point towards renewed blocking once into the last couple weeks of the month. the -EPO/+PNA would also scour out any residual Pacific air relatively quickly, so there wouldn't be a week or two of delay, especially under peak climo Careful about using those 10+ day ensembles. Any "signal" that you see out in that range should be treated with skepticism. It's fine to interpret what current model guidance is showing. But it should be well understood that those features have a good likelihood of verifying significantly differently than currently modeled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 57 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Do you smell what the “rat” is cooking? The writing is on the wall unfortunately. No reason to look at long range thru rose colored glasses. Just setting selves up for more heartbreak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thaw looks to end up being about a week earlier than I had thought back in early November, as it's the first week of of January instead of the second. Considering that most of us struck out on the first big pattern, I would rather the timeline speed up so as to salvage more peak climo. I had expected a mild February, but keep in mind that I did NOT anticipate a SSW....so if that works out, then all bets are off for Feb. That's if it's a favorable SSW. Not all SSWs bring cold/snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's if it's a favorable SSW. Not all SSWs bring cold/snow. And sometimes it ends up on the other side of the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 17 hours ago, weathafella said: Chicago is not where you want to be. MSP perhaps MSP first for sure, but I believe ORD gets a significant event in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Uh oh https://www.wired.com/story/climate-environment-hurricane/ El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 5 more overnight..over a foot since fri and probably another 3-6 by weds..but the party comes to an end even up here by Friday. Hoping we can do 30s and showers next weekend and get back to snow with the 1/6 mess.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's if it's a favorable SSW. Not all SSWs bring cold/snow. Yes, but a SSW can cause causation variation from normal la nina late season climo...hence "all bets off". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, but a SSW can cause causation variation from normal la nina late season climo...hence "all bets off". Yes we will want to do anything to disturb the “base climo” of La Niña in the 2nd half of winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Uh oh https://www.wired.com/story/climate-environment-hurricane/ El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared “La Niña tends to limit hurricane development in the Atlantic” Uh, no it doesn’t… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: “La Niña tends to limit hurricane development in the Atlantic” Uh, no it doesn’t… Yeah that article is not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that article is not correct. Yeah I was scratching my head reading that and wondering if I was confused, lol… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 47 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: MSP first for sure, but I believe ORD gets a significant event in the next two weeks. They will need to significantly outdo guidance if that were to happen. The eastern/SE ridge is too robust to not include Chicago imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 We torch 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Back to 2-3wk progs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Back to 2-3wk progs. Playing out just like last winter unfortunately. Every 10 + days looked good. That story ended with deaths 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Still looks on track to me after first week. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still looks on track to me after first week. Ya… I think you’re right. And as we go forward through this week we should get a better idea of how legit the change back to winter time looks to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Playing out just like last winter unfortunately. Every 10 + days looked good. That story ended with deaths Deaths? James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Back to 2-3wk progs. 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still looks on track to me after first week. So 2-3wks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Deaths? James? People jumping off bridges, sucking tailpipes etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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