January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But the pattern was/is good…we just couldn’t cash in. That’s the point. I don’t know what’s so hard to understand about that. 
 

The dissenting opinions from people were in opposition to folks saying the pattern did not change, and wasn’t heading towards something conducive for winter weather. And nothing was further from the truth. So that’s where folks like you and the pope and Qg got push back.  
 

Bottom line fact: pattern changed and became colder and was/is good for winter enthusiasts….we just got/getting shut out due to nuances that can never be seen at length.  But the pattern changed, and there is no denying that. 

It should be clarified that when people like me, Coastal, etc say the pattern is good, it means the longwave pattern. Shortwaves also make up a pattern, but the problem is shortwaves cannot be forecasted more than a few days in advance. So if the shortwaves end up kind of unfavorable, one can claim "the pattern wasn't good".....but that's not how we are using the term "pattern"....we're specifically talking about the longwave pattern and it is clear to me that not everyone in here understands that. Especially the ones that simply use "total snowfall results" as the arbiter of what is a good or bad pattern. We've actually cleaned up before in shit patterns....it's just a lot harder to do (see January 2006....ORH had something like 25" of snow over a 3 week period from 4 different events during a dumpster fire pattern.)

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It should be clarified that when people like me, Coastal, etc say the pattern is good, it means the longwave pattern. Shortwaves also make up a pattern, but the problem is shortwaves cannot be forecasted more than a few days in advance. So if the shortwaves end up kind of unfavorable, one can claim "the pattern wasn't good".....but that's not how we are using the term "pattern"....we're specifically talking about the longwave pattern and it is clear to me that not everyone in here understands that. Especially the ones that simply use "total snowfall results" as the arbiter of what is a good or bad pattern. We've actually cleaned up before in shit patterns....it's just a lot harder to do (see January 2006....ORH had something like 25" of snow over a 3 week period from 4 different events during a dumpster fire pattern.)

Probably should frame this lol. I think we've said tis many times, but worth repeating again. 

[tamarack]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It should be clarified that when people like me, Coastal, etc say the pattern is good, it means the longwave pattern. Shortwaves also make up a pattern, but the problem is shortwaves cannot be forecasted more than a few days in advance. So if the shortwaves end up kind of unfavorable, one can claim "the pattern wasn't good".....but that's not how we are using the term "pattern"....we're specifically talking about the longwave pattern and it is clear to me that not everyone in here understands that. Especially the ones that simply use "total snowfall results" as the arbiter of what is a good or bad pattern. We've actually cleaned up before in shit patterns....it's just a lot harder to do (see January 2006....ORH had something like 25" of snow over a 3 week period from 4 different events during a dumpster fire pattern.)

That Jan 2006 pattern certainly verified as awful in my area.  That "winter" failed to have even a 6" snowfall - had not seen a winter w/o at least one 6"+ since 1967-68 in NNJ.

It's all about location, as I certainly have no issue with the "great pattern" results, even if half of our snow disappears in the next 30 hours.

[brooklynwx99]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It should be clarified that when people like me, Coastal, etc say the pattern is good, it means the longwave pattern. Shortwaves also make up a pattern, but the problem is shortwaves cannot be forecasted more than a few days in advance. So if the shortwaves end up kind of unfavorable, one can claim "the pattern wasn't good".....but that's not how we are using the term "pattern"....we're specifically talking about the longwave pattern and it is clear to me that not everyone in here understands that. Especially the ones that simply use "total snowfall results" as the arbiter of what is a good or bad pattern. We've actually cleaned up before in shit patterns....it's just a lot harder to do (see January 2006....ORH had something like 25" of snow over a 3 week period from 4 different events during a dumpster fire pattern.)

a good analogy is like if you're playing Texas Hold'em... the longwave pattern is the cards in your hands, and the shortwaves are the other players' cards / cards on the table

this pattern is like being dealt pocket Kings. really good hand, and it increases the odds that you'll win the pot. your odds are much higher than like 2/7, which would be like an awful pattern

however, if the cards on the table are 2, 6, 7, Q, A, the Kings don't look that good anymore and someone can beat you. this is equivalent to a random TPV lobe or Pacific shortwave deamplifying the flow. and sometimes, with a bad pattern (the 2 / 7), sometimes you get a well timed HP in SE Canada and you "win the hand"

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Winters of yore.

 

Think you need to head West if that's how you think your weather should play out.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It should be clarified that when people like me, Coastal, etc say the pattern is good, it means the longwave pattern. Shortwaves also make up a pattern, but the problem is shortwaves cannot be forecasted more than a few days in advance. So if the shortwaves end up kind of unfavorable, one can claim "the pattern wasn't good".....but that's not how we are using the term "pattern"....we're specifically talking about the longwave pattern and it is clear to me that not everyone in here understands that. Especially the ones that simply use "total snowfall results" as the arbiter of what is a good or bad pattern. We've actually cleaned up before in shit patterns....it's just a lot harder to do (see January 2006....ORH had something like 25" of snow over a 3 week period from 4 different events during a dumpster fire pattern.)

Absolutely!

I do believe what I described to the doubters like Qg and 1717 and Pope was pretty much this.  Just didn’t think I needed to spell it out to such experienced posters, as you just did. But I guess it’s always good to break things into small bites for the masses. 

[leo2000]

3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Winters of yore.

 

Sadly winters like that don't exist anymore they are very rare now thanks to CC. If and when they happen. 

[Angus]

3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Winters of yore.

 

Driven through there many times. That whole area up and down hwy131 can get crazy lake effect snow. The town is a big summer tourist destination and in winter there are a bunch of small vertical but large ski areas - Boyne is HQed there - think owner of Big Sky, SLoaf, SR, Loon, et cetera. East and a bit south of there is Gaylord - maybe 5-7 years ago I was there in late January, in a coffee shop early in the morning and there were a bunch of mothers in there commiserating that their kids had literally had 4 days of school since the new year due to snow... Crazy amounts of snow was on the ground. The town of Mancelona in that general vicinity has a snow stake 10' high near the train depot.

Flew out of the airport there once, craziest thing ever - heaviest snow rates I'd ever seems. Pilot came on the intercom said "we have a half hour window" everyone hustled on board, they plowed the runway and we we were off on max thrust. 

[weathafella]

10 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, the longer we go without anything the better chance we have of having a huge Snow storm. At least I'm looking on the bright side lol

We are probably due for several years with maybe a 12 incher every 3-4 years.  We've had them at ridiculous frequency vs the old days.

[weathafella]

9 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely!

I do believe what I described to the doubters like Qg and 1717 and Pope was pretty much this.  Just didn’t think I needed to spell it out to such experienced posters, as you just did. But I guess it’s always good to break things into small bites for the masses. 

JD, it's a bottom line world.   qq actually called for something that happened a few weeks ago and also the above normal temperatures.  Credit that call.  As far as the pope goes, the only actual call he made on the pattern was in the 2nd half of November and he failed.   He assumes verification without a glacier in coastal NH by November's end........

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

JD, it's a bottom line world.   qq actually called for something that happened a few weeks ago and also the above normal temperatures.  Credit that call.  As far as the pope goes, the only actual call he made on the pattern was in the 2nd half of November and he failed.   He assumes verification without a glacier in coastal NH by November's end........

Ahhh I don’t know Jerr??  If you want to give him credit, that’s up to you. I’m not gonna.  Imo he is/was saying the pattern didn’t change, when it did and has. Yes we didn’t cash in, but as you and I know, and also Will explained, it isn’t or wasn’t because the pattern did not change, it’s because of very fine and undetectable nuances, that cannot be forecast but a few days out.   So in that regard I can’t give a guy like that the credit.
 

He ends up saying fail, and trolls, but it didn’t fail because he was right. So that’s why he gets no credit from me. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Every winter forecast that called for it to be a cold and/or snowy winter is well on its way to busting badly.

[SJonesWX]

47 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Every winter forecast that called for it to be a cold and/or snowy winter is well on its way to busting badly.

lol it’s literally the 3rd day of winter. 

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Every winter forecast that called for it to be a cold and/or snowy winter is well on its way to busting badly.

Where were we at 12/23/2014?

[George001]

5 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Every winter forecast that called for it to be a cold and/or snowy winter is well on its way to busting badly.

Too early. 2014-2015 was mild in December and the first half of January. Lets see what the rest of December and early Jan does first.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Where were we at 12/23/2014?

counting on a repeat of 2015 is only going to lead to disappointment. 

[CoastalWx]

Blowtorch to start 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

counting on a repeat of 2015 is only going to lead to disappointment. 

Who’s counting on a once a century stretch?  But hopefully you get the point that it’s too early still to call this winter one way or another.  And disappointment?  Seriously other than 5 minutes, who would be disappointed besides you?

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Who’s counting on a once a century stretch?  But hopefully you get the point that it’s too early still to call this winter one way or another.  And disappointment?  Seriously other than 5 minutes, who would be disappointed besides you?

The one issue with hoping for a backloaded winter is that those are a lot more common in El Niño. 
 

Though if we can get going by 1/7-1/10, it doesn’t necessarily have to be backloaded…

[Go Kart Mozart]

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Who’s counting on a once a century stretch?  But hopefully you get the point that it’s too early still to call this winter one way or another.  And disappointment?  Seriously other than 5 minutes, who would be disappointed besides you?

I am glad you said this.  The most hackneyed phrase on this board is "2015 isn't walking through the door".  No, but the lesson is don't give up just yet.  It's like a football analyst saying a young QB has some Joe Montana-like qualities...everyone will point the finger at the analyst...you claimed he was the next Joe Montana!  No.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I am glad you said this.  The most hackneyed phrase on this board is "2015 isn't walking through the door".  No, but the lesson is don't give up just yet.  It's like a football analyst saying a young QB has some Joe Montana-like qualities...everyone will point the finger at the analyst...you claimed he was the next Joe Montana!  No.

2012-2013 is another example…interior had some snow events in December but the coast was totally hosed until February. There were tons of melts in January 2013 when the pattern turned favorable after mid-month and we didn’t get a good system and then a huge cutter….that was a good one. Then Feb/Mar 2013 happened. 
 

Most of these winters though that rebounded strongly we’re not La Niñas. You could maybe say 2010-2011 was slow to start for CT….the Boxing Day dryslot from hell wasn’t exactly a prolific snow event (a lot of areas struggled to barely get warning snow…a few isolated spots didn’t even get that)…but then after the huge NYE/NEw Years day torch period, it was off to the races for an epic 4 weeks. 

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2012-2013 is another example…interior had some snow events in December but the coast was totally hosed until February. There were tons of melts in January 2013 when the pattern turned favorable after mid-month and we didn’t get a good system and then a huge cutter….that was a good one. Then Feb/Mar 2013 happened. 
 

Most of these winters though that rebounded strongly we’re not La Niñas. You could maybe say 2010-2011 was slow to start for CT….the Boxing Day dryslot from hell wasn’t exactly a prolific snow event (a lot of areas struggled to barely get warning snow…a few isolated spots didn’t even get that)…but then after the huge NYE/NEw Years day torch period, it was off to the races for an epic 4 weeks. 

Yup

SW CT did good on boxing day (16 inches). Eastern CT definitely dry slotted.

We did have a 3.5 incher on the SW coast December 12. 

I hope blocking returns with a vengeance!

[weathafella]

The most backloaded nina I can think of of those which I’ve live through is 1955-56.

[ma blizzard]

27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The most backloaded nina I can think of of those which I’ve live through is 1955-56.

We can only dream .. 

[ORH_wxman]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The most backloaded nina I can think of of those which I’ve live through is 1955-56.

Yes that is def an anomaly but it was a potent Niña. Mostly got skunked until mid January 1956. But the real stuff didn’t really happen until Feb/Mar. Mar ‘56 is locally around my area one of the most epic months you’ll see. Over 50” that month after a prolific Feb. Snow depths over 40”. Mar ‘56 had no torches either. 
 

 

[brooklynwx99]

we are going to torch through the first week of January

however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal

blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development

so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

The most backloaded nina I can think of of those which I’ve live through is 1955-56.

per my data I plotted, that was the all time top of the list winter for this area, and second was 95-96, as I stated before, there was a lull in winter snow from 32 until about 53-54 and peaked the next season, but until early 70s they were all up there, went down a bit until early oughts, and has been pretty steady since, although three of the last 4 seasons have been rats, last year was another under 45" year here. First three years after we moved to Winsted from wtby, were epic about 100", then fell off some, 16-17 and 17-18 were ok

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we are going to torch through the first week of January

however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal

blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development

so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point

Complete agreement. Been saying all fall...any pig of AK this season is transient and big time Pacifc improvements in January with a return if blocking. I titled my outlook "Mid Winter Mayhem" for a reason.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

The most backloaded nina I can think of of those which I’ve live through is 1955-56.

2017-2018 was fairly backloaded.

[CoastalWx]

Another AN month most likely.