40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This has support with the strengthening PV, mjo torch phases and pac jet ext Even with a strong PV, I do not buy that the pig is going to camp out over AK long term...maybe blocking doesn't return in January, but that doesn't mean SNE is cooked. TBH, I have been saying all December just give me a very cold Canada, and run a train of SWs into it...I will take my chances with that IMBY. Blocking is likely to return...maybe its later than January... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Frustrating start not withstanding, I do not see a reason to cancel winter. People are scared to death of 1989-1990 scenario, in which blocking never returned...okay, so worst case I finish just below average again like I have the past four seasons. Still not a rat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even with a strong PV, I do not buy that the pig is going to camp out over AK long term...maybe blocking doesn't return in January, but that doesn't mean SNE is cooked. TBH, I have been saying all December just give me a very cold Canada, and run a train of SWs into it...I will take my chances with that IMBY. Blocking is likely to return...maybe its later than January... Not that I disagree, but it will be a few weeks until we see a cold Canada after Xmas Everything is completely flipped on where you would want it to start January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: Not that I disagree, but it will be a few weeks until we see a cold Canada after Xmas Yea, I can see panicking about early January...that is reasonable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 hours ago, masonwoods said: There is always some idiot who grabs a 24hr period 10+ days out to make a point about a whole month's avg temp variance. Well here's the d7-11 and d12-16 5d avg GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: Well here's the d7-11 and d12-16 5d avg GEFS. That adds value! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Ugly and concerning Yeah I think Jan 1-10 is likely skunked but we'll probably flip again. This has been a very variable fall/winter already with a colder October to very mild November to likely BN Dec now back to AN. I'm prob done with the tracking, the models and the forums after Dec 27. Will come back Jan 15 to hopefully better news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Actually, the end of the GEFS/EPS show the beginning of the reload. The pig is flushed and the SE ridge is getting beaten down. We START to re-seed Canada with cold and one can extrapolate better times. Let's see what happens and if that look holds or improves going forward. The period beyond the awfulness will determine full on ratter vs volatile but sometimes fun winter. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Have to hand it to Q, he took a lot of heat but nailed this pattern and the coming record warm first half of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Actually, the end of the GEFS/EPS show the beginning of the reload. The pig is flushed and the SE ridge is getting beaten down. We START to re-seed Canada with cold and one can extrapolate better times. Let's see what happens and if that look holds or improves going forward. The period beyond the awfulness will determine full on ratter vs volatile but sometimes fun winter. End of EPS didn't look terrible, but it will prob take some time to get true cold into the source region again. That said, we can snow with good synoptics even in a stale airmass in early January....and a ridge centered over Utah/Idaho/Alberta always carries some potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Have to hand it to Q, he took a lot of heat but nailed this pattern and the coming record warm first half of January. Gee, I didn’t realize January was half over….. Whats wrong with you? And we’ll hand that clown nothing…all he does is troll. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Actually, the end of the GEFS/EPS show the beginning of the reload. The pig is flushed and the SE ridge is getting beaten down. We START to re-seed Canada with cold and one can extrapolate better times. Let's see what happens and if that look holds or improves going forward. The period beyond the awfulness will determine full on ratter vs volatile but sometimes fun winter. Yeah the low retros and heights rise. It does have agreement with the tropical stuff too. Piggy doesn't look like a long standing feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I"m so glad there's a January thread so we an continue our misery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 20 hours ago, MJO812 said: 308 hours 308 hours looked great with this current pattern and look. No snow. We should all stop posting the ensembles past 200 hours. If you had to bet on "warmth" or "cold" in the long term where are you placing your money? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: If you had to bet on "warmth" or "cold" in the long term where are you placing your money? Warmth but that's not what I'm talking about . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Warmth but that's not what I'm talking about . I understand but people have been all in on the so called great pattern on the models...any dissenting points of view were dismissed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I understand but people have been all in on the so called great pattern on the models...any dissenting points of view were dismissed. Was a good pattern, however as ORH wxman pointed out we were unlucky. He is a professional and value his opinion. So it was not a bad pattern, just one that didn't produce. At the opposite end is Feb 2018. We had EXTREME warmth yet had a 4.5 inch snow event. Was that a good snow pattern? Hit 60 plus multiple days Luck and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 We see the nose of a rat poking out… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We see the nose of a rat poking out… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We see the nose of a rat poking out… More like... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Was a good pattern, however as ORH wxman pointed out we were unlucky. He is a professional and value his opinion. So it was not a bad pattern, just one that didn't produce. At the opposite end is Feb 2018. We had EXTREME warmth yet had a 4.5 inch snow event. Was that a good snow pattern? Hit 60 plus multiple days Luck and timing. I’ve been skiing in Northern Vermont and it’s been great, I originally thought the pattern just sucked but seeing just how much snow they have up in NNE that changed my perspective. The pattern wasn’t a shutout garbage pattern, we really did just get unlucky with the dominant storm track being inland rather than slightly offshore. Last winter I’d argue was the opposite, the pattern sucked and we actually got lucky with that blizzard in late Jan. Last winter was below average everywhere in the northeast except for eastern Mass, which was above average to well above on the south shore (jackpot zone for the blizzard). It sucks that the storm track locked in west like that, but I have hope that it will shift SE and we get our chance. That cutter and the one week torch might be just what we need to reset the pattern and hopefully we get some luck on our side with the next pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, George001 said: I’ve been skiing in Northern Vermont and it’s been great, I originally thought the pattern just sucked but seeing just how much snow they have up in NNE that changed my perspective. The pattern wasn’t a shutout garbage pattern, we really did just get unlucky with the dominant storm track being inland rather than slightly offshore. Last winter I’d argue was the opposite, the pattern sucked and we actually got lucky with that blizzard in late Jan. Last winter was below average everywhere in the northeast except for eastern Mass, which was above average to well above on the south shore (jackpot zone for the blizzard). It sucks that the storm track locked in west like that, but I have hope that it will shift SE and we get our chance. That cutter and the one week torch might be just what we need to reset the pattern and hopefully we get some luck on our side with the next pattern. I've already obtained video.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I've already obtained video.. Unfortunately that’s exactly how it went down. I love skiing but I am not very good at it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 26 minutes ago, George001 said: Unfortunately that’s exactly how it went down. I love skiing but I am not very good at it haha Some people refer to me as the modern day Nostradamus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Winters of yore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 On 12/21/2022 at 1:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Frustrating start not withstanding, I do not see a reason to cancel winter. People are scared to death of 1989-1990 scenario, in which blocking never returned...okay, so worst case I finish just below average again like I have the past four seasons. Still not a rat. Wasn't too scary in this area. I lived in Gardiner, Maine then, and we had 5 warning criteria snowstorms in Jan-Feb and the 2 months totaled 51.5". Jan was indeed mild, warmest by far of our 13 Januarys there while Feb was only 0.7° AN. The Farmington co-op had 55" in those 2 months, with a 16" storm in late Jan and a max pack of 36" in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Just now, tamarack said: Wasn't too scary in this area. I lived in Gardiner, Maine then, and we had 5 warning criteria snowstorms in Jan-Feb and the 2 months totaled 51.5". Jan was indeed mild, warmest by far of our 13 Januarys there while Feb was only 0.7° AN. The Farmington co-op had 55" in those 2 months, with a 16" storm in late Jan and a max pack of 36" in early Feb. 89-90 would fit right in with my current strings of winter....lame and unremarkable, but not awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 89-90 would fit right in with my current strings of winter....lame and unremarkable, but not awful. Since retention is a significant part of my winter opinions, having 89-90 rank 3rd of 13 adds to its memory. (#1 was 93-94, #2 86-87. 95-96 was snowiest, more than 30" above 2nd place, but the thaws pushed its SDDs to 5th. Also, getting only grazed, 3.7", by the Jan KU subtracts from that winter's satisfaction.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 5 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I understand but people have been all in on the so called great pattern on the models...any dissenting points of view were dismissed. But the pattern was/is good…we just couldn’t cash in. That’s the point. I don’t know what’s so hard to understand about that. The dissenting opinions from people were in opposition to folks saying the pattern did not change, and wasn’t heading towards something conducive for winter weather. And nothing was further from the truth. So that’s where folks like you and the pope and Qg got push back. Bottom line fact: pattern changed and became colder and was/is good for winter enthusiasts….we just got/getting shut out due to nuances that can never be seen at length. But the pattern changed, and there is no denying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Well, the longer we go without anything the better chance we have of having a huge Snow storm. At least I'm looking on the bright side lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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