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January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco


nj2va
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7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast you’re right that the pna ridge a bit too far west and associated WAR is a problem. But the answer isn’t “let’s lose everything else we also need for a snowstorm” like the NAO/AO and Aleutian low. There was more right than wrong with the longwave pattern.  Blowing it all up seems unlikely to result in getting us closer to right. I’d prefer to root for the subtle changes we need in the pna and western Atlantic and not lose the good stuff.  
 

ETA: the problem with “let’s reshuffle the deck” is there are lots of combinations and like 90% of them don’t work. It’s unlikely any reshuffle results in a better look when you had a decent longwave configuration and just needed a slight adjustment.  

The reality is that the pattern will reshuffle some and we will end up with whatever we get lol. Hoping for 'tweaks' of the current pattern is probably just as unlikely to yield better outcomes. Are we suddenly going to get a persistent vortex near the Canadian Maritimes under the NAO ridge instead of heights building there and developing a full lat ridge whenever a trough approaches? That would be a nice adjustment of the current pattern but not sure that's realistic either. Whatever transpires, one thing we will have in our favor going forward is better climo. Lets just hope the Pacific doesn't go to crap in conjunction with the AO going super positive.

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7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

November 1995. It was THAT long ago. 

See my post in the other thread. Significant snow not so much but many examples of quick hitters behind fronts. More so N and W but still cities on south saw a change and accumulation. I listed a few dates but there are actually several others I didn't mention.

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37 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'd pay for that to happen to all of us right now

Best small event in 20 yard years. Remember it like yesterday. I seared some fillet mignons on my grill in 12 degree temps and 35mph winds while getting blasted by blowing snow. If that ain't livin' I don't know what is

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest GEFSx gets us to this look moving into the second week of Jan. Based off the 0z GEFS run from yesterday that goes out to Jan 3. Should this progression transpire, mid to late Jan should be colder than normal, coinciding with near peak climo for cold/snow.

1673740800-ddfYLsbfVCI.png

That would be putting stress on PV, with the Scandinavian ridging/high and low near the Aleutians. Good pattern for PV disruptions.

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