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January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco


nj2va
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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's what I'm thinking too. Pattern reset and backloaded ftw.

The next phrase is, "Winter is over see ya next year" Coming into the winter season here were my two worries:

#1 La Nina

#2 Tremendous Ocean warmth Pacific, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic 

#3 Southeast Ridge 

So, all of the above these factors are wrecking our winters in regard to sustained cold and snow in the Middle Atlantic. I am sure all these factors above are all obvious to everyone. If you want to roll in global warming and warm ocean temps not locking in 50/50 lows that can be included. 

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10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

18z NAM with some Shen Valley love with the first wave. Nothing special but an inch or two is still possible. 

GFS does the same.

We know that December snow climo around here stinks, but the GFS and Euro are suggesting that Boston may get to New Year's with 1.0" on the year, and NYC with a T.  So, it isn't like we are alone in missing out.

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Just for future reference the Gfs was more correct with the happenings over Canada. But it ended go kinda a 60/40 compromise and we needed the GFS to be 100% correct to have a shot at keeping this from cutting. But still impressive imo that it was closer given all other guidance was totally against it at one point. 

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

GFS does the same.

We know that December snow climo around here stinks, but the GFS and Euro are suggesting that Boston may get to New Year's with 1.0" on the year, and NYC with a T.  So, it isn't like we are alone in missing out.

Dec snow climo isn’t isn’t that bad the NW 1/3 of this forum either. 

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3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Agreed. I don’t think this is a good pattern to begin with. By that I mean what’s actually out there in reality, not what has been depicted on model maps 7+ days out. There’s a difference, and the “good” pattern the models told us was coming did not fully come to fruition. 

Yes we got the -nao, but we did not get the +pna (which is even more important in Dec than Jan-Feb)

Having all these cutters is about what we would expect from a La Nina. 

Meanwhile, my buddy in Deadwood, SD just got a record 5 feet in a couple days.  If snow is the measure, there are winners and losers in all patterns.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

No real relax/reshuffle/warm up on the CMC ens. Just reload. More of the same general (Epic:rolleyes: ) pattern. Go Canada!

 

1672704000-AcbHasoOwYI.png

 

 

I much prefer this since I am one of those weenies who hates winter warmth.  But to my novice eye I see no 50/50 and the PNA ridge too far west.  So as far as frozen, we are likely in the same fail boat.  Am I catching on?

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10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I much prefer this since I am one of those weenies who hates winter warmth.  But to my novice eye I see no 50/50 and the PNA ridge too far west.  So as far as frozen, we are likely in the same fail boat.  Am I catching on?

Yes. You’re a quick study. 

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