stormtracker Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It's times like these that I take comfort looking back on the fact that you're rarely right in these situations You know you and I think alike, but this time I think it really is over. Ya hate to see it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 WB 12Z GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Little closer. If I get 3 inches from the initial system and 20s on Christmas, it’s a win for me…. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 By the time Friday gets here, that storm may be a Des Moines blizzard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: By the time Friday gets here, that storm may be a Des Moines blizzard. Yep lol. Our best shot Is to hope for that front runner piece to come in hot and heavy. Looks like more and more separation between that and the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: If I get 3 inches from the initial system and 20s on Christmas, it’s a win for me…. Ok 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Time to consider a Saturday run to Davis. That’s a good look for upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I wouldn't fully give up on this system yet, there is front-end thump potential as well as some potential for some backend snow. If this threat doesn't work out, we also have the 27th to look to 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I see many are in the bargaining and denial phases…don’t worry acceptance is liberating. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Pretty much sums up watching the models the past couple weeks. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 46 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Little closer. Close to 2 inches(that's what she said) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Over the past 6 years numerous times we’ve wasted what should have been a good longwave pattern. Every time as it ended there were a smattering of “good let’s try something different”. And I can’t reminder a single time that worked out. If a good pattern doesn’t work I doubt a bad one will. Usually we just end up in a total no hope close the blinds don’t even look at each run until further notice so pattern. I am not excited by a pattern change. But hopefully it doesn’t last too long. Maybe by mid January we can cycle back to a better pattern and hopefully get more luck. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Over the past 6 years numerous times we’ve wasted what should have been a good longwave pattern. Every time as it ended there were a smattering of “good let’s try something different”. And I can’t reminder a single time that worked out. If a good pattern doesn’t work I doubt a bad one will. Usually we just end up in a total no hope close the blinds don’t even look at each run until further notice so pattern. I am not excited by a pattern change. But hopefully it doesn’t last too long. Maybe by mid January we can cycle back to a better pattern and hopefully get more luck. That's what I'm thinking too. Pattern reset and backloaded ftw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 we could get a decent pattern sometime soon again after the mild Pacific air floods CONUS when the jet retracts, giving us a decent pattern with a +PNA and EC trough before it becomes shit again wondering when thatll happen tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 After reading through this thread, I think I found the perfect Christmas gift for some here. 1 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: we could get a decent pattern sometime soon again after the mild Pacific air floods CONUS when the jet retracts, giving us a decent pattern with a +PNA and EC trough before it becomes shit again wondering when thatll happen tho My worry is by the time cold re builds its already late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: WAR on the move and the Atlantic ocean SSTs still rather warm. I could say that HM thinks any PV strengthening is temporary, and that we will get a reload latter, but after this fiasco I am going to chill out and wait for better days. When psu and the Euro gives me the green light then I will Woof. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Time to consider a Saturday run to Davis. That’s a good look for upslope. That’s potentially a blizzard upslope look to it. Mountains are going to score big on Saturday into Sunday if that look verifies. Of course I get there Monday morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Windy Friday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, frd said: WAR on the move and the Atlantic ocean SSTs still rather warm. I could say that HM thinks any PV strengthening is temporary, and that we will get a reload latter, but after this fiasco I am going to chill out and wait for better days. When psu and the Euro gives me the green light then I will Woof. LOL I don’t think we’re done for the season. This doesn’t have the hallmarks (yet) of a total dreg year like 2019/20. And if we were to get a similar pattern to the one we just wasted in late January/February it’s more likely something comes of it. Just depressing we seem to have wasted what’s been mostly a decent to good longwave configuration the first 1/3 of the snow season. Yea November and December aren’t good snow climo but in most good seasons we did manage to snow by now. It’s not impossible. Or at least it wasn’t impossible lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: That’s potentially a blizzard upslope look to it. Mountains are going to score big on Saturday into Sunday if that look verifies. Of course I get there Monday morning I’m heading to Canaan tomorrow, coming back Friday and then back again the day after Christmas. So this will definitely verify lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Windy Friday! Well, that's a wind jackpot east of the apps over my house. I'm happy again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 It's hard to rationalize this as a good pattern when we're dealing with cutters. Obviously, there's some other variables at play (warmer waters shifting the storm track west, etc.)...or we're just dealing with standard La Nina things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, 87storms said: It's hard to rationalize this as a good pattern when we're dealing with cutters. Obviously, there's some other variables at play (warmer waters shifting the storm track west, etc.)...or we're just dealing with standard La Nina things. Agreed. I don’t think this is a good pattern to begin with. By that I mean what’s actually out there in reality, not what has been depicted on model maps 7+ days out. There’s a difference, and the “good” pattern the models told us was coming did not fully come to fruition. Yes we got the -nao, but we did not get the +pna (which is even more important in Dec than Jan-Feb) Having all these cutters is about what we would expect from a La Nina. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Wife has convinced me to go meadow mountain to camp for Christmas. High on Sunday is progged for 7F with wind chills of -20F and nonstop upsloping snow. I've trained her well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Euro makes me want to punch a baby. Ugh it’s ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Euro makes me want to punch a baby. Ugh it’s ugly. Has chances after the warm cutter though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: My worry is by the time cold re builds its already late January. Yep....at least 10 days to reestablish cold up North and another 5 days+ to move South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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