January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I know you have repeatedly said that MA "should" not need cross-polar flow to get snow, but did you really regularly get "workmanlike" snows with pac puke?  Using the standard airmass type nomenclature (not sure who defines this) I would equate "pac puke" with "maritime polar", "domestic cold" with "continental polar" and cross-polar flow with "continental arctic".  So before was a good bit of MA snow coming with mP airmasses?

I think even in the olden days we didn’t get a lot of snow with maritime polar air masses. That’s my intuition though, without stats to back it up. I’d guess that a lot of the vanishing marginal events @psuhoffman has been mentioning are with modified continental polar airmasses. That’s probably our most common type of airmass in winter (and much of the year). Now we seem to need fresher continental polar air masses or even modified continental arctic. Simply because that modification makes the continental polar airmass too warm for snow. 

[Kevin Reilly]

44 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So let me get this straight (actually been meaning to ask about this)...Warmer SSTs...make it harder to get 50/50s, and thus less "tucked" solutions? Or am I missing something?

I would think that warmer SST's in the oceans would cause a warmer air mass overall and also a much more progressive pattern not locking in cold to produce your "normal" wintertime snowfall. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Am I really that “pessimistic” or am I just rational and it simply has been and continues to be “that bad”. Keep in mind in my seasonal forecasts I’ve busted high on snowfall like 70% of the time. Not crazy high usually, maybe only a couple inches, but still I over forecast snow way more then under.  Same with my individual storm forecasts. I’ve busted high slightly more than low. So again, am I pessimistic or simply realistic?  

 

BTW I know it’s mostly in jest and most aren’t actually mad at me. We joke. And you all know I want snow. I’ll be thrilled if I’m totally wrong and we get dumped with snow the rest of winter. I’ll gladly admit I was wrong and take that L.  But I’m not gonna blow smoke if I just don’t see it.  I do hope that fact is also appreciated.  Either way love you guys and I hope I’m wrong and we turn this around. 

C'mon, you surely know I was joking and ribbing you a bit for fun! Sometimes a bit of humor helps. But it has seemed like this year you've been a lot more pessimistic. I certainly don't think you're trying to be alarmist and in no way suggesting that you put lipstick on a pig and say how great things look. In fact I agree with a lot of your concerns about trends the past couple of decades. 

I've always respected your input and analysis in here, one of the posters who contributes a lot of good information. And in an impartial, fact-based manner. I won't go requesting "alternative facts!" 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

C'mon, you surely know I was joking and ribbing you a bit for fun! Sometimes a bit of humor helps. But it has seemed like this year you've been a lot more pessimistic. I certainly don't think you're trying to be alarmist and in no way suggesting that you put lipstick on a pig and say how great things look. In fact I agree with a lot of your concerns about trends the past couple of decades. 

I've always respected your input and analysis in here, one of the posters who contributes a lot of good information. And in an impartial, fact-based manner. I won't go requesting "alternative facts!" 

I knew your post wasn't really critical, I tried to indicate that in the last part.  I am more pessimistic this year though.  That is irrespective of my concerns with climate change.  Even if this winter was 30 years ago I said back starting in late summer and through fall that just about every indicator I could find that has some correlation IMO with winter was wrong.  This was likely to be a bad winter in any era, but add in our recent trends and...well yea I was never optimistic this was going to anything other than what it is turning out to be.  I allowed the positive vibes in November and some pretty epic looking long range guidance to influence my final winter snowfall forecast.  I still went below normal because I had a feeling I just couldn't shake but I went closer to median v the truly awful results I was kinda fearing.  I probably should have stuck to my initial gut feeling.  Still time though, and luck can work both ways...all it takes is one really lucky event for the DC area to avoid a horrible fate. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I just hope when we all finally cash in PSU tracks and celebrates with us and we don't have to read his posts about how it will inevitably melt in 36 hours and will be 3+ years before we have another shot. I admire his sense of realism, just hope time is taken to savor the reward when the day comes. 

When have I ever been that way when it actually snows???

[North Balti Zen]

Psuhoff isn’t Ji, guys.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I know you have repeatedly said that MA "should" not need cross-polar flow to get snow, but did you really regularly get "workmanlike" snows with pac puke?  Using the standard airmass type nomenclature (not sure who defines this) I would equate "pac puke" with "maritime polar", "domestic cold" with "continental polar" and cross-polar flow with "continental arctic".  So before was a good bit of MA snow coming with mP airmasses?

 

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think even in the olden days we didn’t get a lot of snow with maritime polar air masses. That’s my intuition though, without stats to back it up. I’d guess that a lot of the vanishing marginal events @psuhoffman has been mentioning are with modified continental polar airmasses. That’s probably our most common type of airmass in winter (and much of the year). Now we seem to need fresher continental polar air masses or even modified continental arctic. Simply because that modification makes the continental polar airmass too warm for snow. 

There is a spectrum to this.  But when we are talking about any airmass that isn't initiating from cross polar flow out of Siberia we are talking about some degree of pacific maritime influence.   But there is a big difference between air that originated in the North Pacific then crossed the Yukon and air that was injected directly into the CONUS from the central/south Pacific.  Maritime air that originated in the central or south pacific was never going to work in any era.  But recently we have seen the failure of airmasses that originated off the north Pacific then mixed with continental air over NW Canada before tracking into the eastern US. 

 

This week might not be the best example of that.  The airmass is pretty bad, it does have some air injected from Canada but also some air straight off the Pac.  But the thicknesses are low and the warming is happening in the boundary layer most dramatically so that is an argument that this might have worked 30 years ago.  But there were better examples recently where we had air that IMO had enough continental influence that it should have been workable and wasn't even that close.  IMO it's not any one single event, its that we've had so many marginal setups over the last 5 years and they just about all failed.  Should all of them worked out, no.  But some should imo.  But I want to stop beating this dead horse.  I've said my peace.  Everyone knows the deal.  People can take whatever opinion they want on this, nothing said now is going to change it.  The data is there, we've debated it, everyone has made their case.  I don't want to continue to beat this drum.  We can have another discussion about this once the season is over and people are less invested in snow in the moment. 

[DE2PA]

GFS/EURO/CMC all showing some digital snow 8/9th.

 

EURO with a Nor’easter/Typhoon 210hr+ range

 

We are alive.. barely 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

When have I ever been that way when it actually snows???

I was teasing you, I hope you realize that.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS…still watching mid January.

[mappy]

Ava mentioned possible rain/snow for Saturday. I see the GFS shows this, though surface is a smidge warm for stickage

[frd]

 

Yuck to rain  !    An East Coast Front loaded winter without snow fits a La Nina in the new base state.  

 

 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

“Base state” is the new buzz word around here.

[clskinsfan]

Glad for the west coast as they obviously need the rain badly. But I am close to putting a big huge fork in this winter. Three years of Nina's is taking its toll on me. And now we have a Nina with Nino like flow. Which means PAC puke and trash air masses. Had amazing blocking early and ended up with a single week long arctic outbreak out of it. This hobby frustrates to no end. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

New thread

[Steve25]

20 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dude, it's January 2nd

We will have to circle back to this