January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

1030mb high in the lakes, weak sauce low passing to our south in mid January, 534dm heights, precip falling at night…and rain. Hoffman making notes.

 

Forget doom scrolling...PSU has a literal doom scroll (complete with a sinister-looking feather pen)

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Forget doom scrolling...PSU has a literal doom scroll (complete with a sinister-looking feather pen)

Four misfortunes and that’s a changing climate  

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

A suppressed OTS look is what we want to see at range. I think it trends closer to the coast over time. 

My bigger concern is the airmass. 

yeah would much rather it look suppressed/OTS now than having it hitting us right now, if we get the canadian high to trend stronger our cold air worries should lessen
500mb look is not bad at all, just the airmass thats the main worry atp, some members have a 50/50 low(on MSLP) but it doesnt show here
also see some similarities with the Jan 2019(EPS attached below) with the energy sliding under the Canadian block, aleutian low and trough over GOA(obv this system is different, not implying this system will be like that storm or anything of that sort)

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

1030mb high in the lakes, weak sauce low passing to our south in mid January, 534dm heights, precip falling at night…and rain. Hoffman making notes.

 

 

You have a high pressure sitting off the se coast bringing in southerly winds at the surface which is where you are getting the BL warmth for rain 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Forget doom scrolling...PSU has a literal doom scroll (complete with a sinister-looking feather pen)

I suspect PSU was secretly tapped by @WxWatcher007 to be the next Reaper after he retired!  Only instead of the fine establishment that was the Panic Room, he brings statistics and dissertations on why we are doomed directly into the medium range thread! 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

A suppressed OTS look is what we want to see at range. I think it trends closer to the coast over time. 

My bigger concern is the airmass. 

Is it good or bad if the discussion is “which  is the bigger problem”?  Asking for a friend. 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

By the end of next week, it will shift westward and be another blizzard for Buffalo…but until then I will watch it….(perhaps keeping an eye on it will make all of the work that has piled up while I have been off for a week bearable to get through as I go back...)

 

Here are some pictures from Niagra Falls NY.  The first picture was exactly 7 days ago.  The second is from today. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Is it good or bad if the discussion is “which  is the bigger problem”?  Asking for a friend. 

I think that’s for every individual to decide for themselves…

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Here are some pictures from Niagra Falls NY.  The first picture was exactly 7 days ago.  The second is from today. 

Wow.  The grass is almost green.  For that far north is shocking.  

[frd]

Really thought the SPV would weaken late month,  but it appears it wants to get stronger again.  Goes against the idea of what happened in December with a - 4.0 AO, happening again later in the season.  Will need to check back in mid month to see what transpires. 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Really thought the SPV would weaken late month,  but it appears it wants to get stronger again.  Goes against the idea of what happened in December with a - 4.0 AO, happening again later in the season.  Will need to check back in mid month to see what transpires. 

 

 

Who posted the chart with the analogs for deep -AOs in December and what happened the rest of the winter? I wanna look at that again.

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Wow.  The grass is almost green.  For that far north is shocking.  

We do warmth well up here too

[poolz1]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Really thought the SPV would weaken late month,  but it appears it wants to get stronger again.  Goes against the idea of what happened in December with a - 4.0 AO, happening again later in the season.  Will need to check back in mid month to see what transpires. 

 

 

I was surprised that he used the ext gefs to make a point about the strength of the SPV.  I mean, a D10 forecast is pretty flimsy when it comes to predicting this stuff let alone 30 days.

I don't know the dude he is replying to but he is making a point about a D10-15 op run.  Which in itself is flimsy...

[cbmclean]

17 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I was surprised that he used the ext gefs to make a point about the strength of the SPV.  I mean, a D10 forecast is pretty flimsy when it comes to predicting this stuff let alone 30 days.

I don't know the dude he is replying to but he is making a point about a D10-15 op run.  Which in itself is flimsy...

So right now, do we care at all what goes on with the SPV?  I was under the impression it only mattered (good or bad) if it was tightly coupled with the TPV.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

1030mb high in the lakes, weak sauce low passing to our south in mid January, 534dm heights, precip falling at night…and rain. Hoffman making notes.

 

I gave up…

But seriously the 12z euro had a similar thing. Perfect SW pass, sub 540, all rain from what “should” have been a 1-3” snow.  Those things add up and I’m noting them way too frequently. 

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

You have a high pressure sitting off the se coast bringing in southerly winds at the surface which is where you are getting the BL warmth for rain 

There is always “higher” pressure to our east as a wave approaches. Calling that a high pressure is a stretch and if a very brief 5mph regional south wind (it’s not like it’s a screaming fetch from the gulf) is too much in January with sub 540 thicknesses and a track to our south please explain to me what the right setup is for what used to be a typical small to moderate snow other than the obvious “we need arctic air” which is and always has been an exceptionally rare event. 

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I suspect PSU was secretly tapped by @WxWatcher007 to be the next Reaper after he retired!  Only instead of the fine establishment that was the Panic Room, he brings statistics and dissertations on why we are doomed directly into the medium range thread! 

Am I really that “pessimistic” or am I just rational and it simply has been and continues to be “that bad”. Keep in mind in my seasonal forecasts I’ve busted high on snowfall like 70% of the time. Not crazy high usually, maybe only a couple inches, but still I over forecast snow way more then under.  Same with my individual storm forecasts. I’ve busted high slightly more than low. So again, am I pessimistic or simply realistic?  
 

BTW I know it’s mostly in jest and most aren’t actually mad at me. We joke. And you all know I want snow. I’ll be thrilled if I’m totally wrong and we get dumped with snow the rest of winter. I’ll gladly admit I was wrong and take that L.  But I’m not gonna blow smoke if I just don’t see it.  I do hope that fact is also appreciated.  Either way love you guys and I hope I’m wrong and we turn this around. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Wow.  The grass is almost green.  For that far north is shocking.  

It's actually not shocking anymore. This seems to be a reoccurring theme even up in these latitudes year after year. Not surprising at all to see green grass in the winter with all the bogus thaws and consecutive days of low temperatures being 10 to 15 degrees above the normal high for the time of year.

[Maestrobjwa]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I gave up…

But seriously the 12z euro had a similar thing. Perfect SW pass, sub 540, all rain from what “should” have been a 1-3” snow.  Those things add up and I’m noting them way too frequently. 

There is always “higher” pressure to our east as a wave approaches. Calling that a high pressure is a stretch and if a very brief 5mph regional south wind (it’s not like it’s a screaming fetch from the gulf) is too much in January with sub 540 thicknesses and a track to our south please explain to me what the right setup is for what used to be a typical small to moderate snow other than the obvious “we need arctic air” which is and always has been an exceptionally rare event. 

Am I really that “pessimistic” or am I just rational and it simply has been and continues to be “that bad”. Keep in mind in my seasonal forecasts I’ve busted high on snowfall like 70% of the time. Not crazy high usually, maybe only a couple inches, but still I over forecast snow way more then under.  Same with my individual storm forecasts. I’ve busted high slightly more than low. So again, am I pessimistic or simply realistic?  
 

BTW I know it’s mostly in jest and most aren’t actually mad at me. We joke. And you all know I want snow. I’ll be thrilled if I’m totally wrong and we get dumped with snow the rest of winter. I’ll gladly admit I was wrong and take that L.  But I’m not gonna blow smoke if I just don’t see it.  I do hope that fact is also appreciated.  Either way love you guys and I hope I’m wrong and we turn this around. 

I always appreciate your posts overall. And I don't think anybody wants ya to blow smoke (unless it's cold powder that makes everybody's streets cave). I just think the repeated reminders of longer term doom (beyond this season) are unpleasant to keep hearing about everyday. You're calling balls and strikes and I get that...so maybe it's just me, lol But I dread your posts these days because it's always bad news about not just this season (which is struggling right now) but future seasons...and the reminders of such. So that's like one depressing thing (current) and future depressing things (even less snow that we used to get). But again, that might just be a me problem. Still appreciate your knowledge and experience though--not saying anything against that at all!

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's actually not shocking anymore. This seems to be a reoccurring theme even up in these latitudes year after year. Not surprising at all to see green grass in the winter with all the bogus thaws and consecutive days of low temperatures being 10 to 15 degrees above the normal high for the time of year.

Man whatever is happening is not good. Each year winter goal posts are narrowing at a rapid clip. Makes you wonder what winter will become in 10-20 years.  

[cbmclean]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

than the obvious “we need arctic air” which is and always has been an exceptionally rare event.

I know you have repeatedly said that MA "should" not need cross-polar flow to get snow, but did you really regularly get "workmanlike" snows with pac puke?  Using the standard airmass type nomenclature (not sure who defines this) I would equate "pac puke" with "maritime polar", "domestic cold" with "continental polar" and cross-polar flow with "continental arctic".  So before was a good bit of MA snow coming with mP airmasses?

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Man whatever is happening is not good. Each year winter goal posts are narrowing at a rapid clip. Makes you wonder what winter will become in 10-20 years.  

The last two years I've vascillated back and forth over what the future of our snow is gonna be. I haven't known whether to just give up on it entirely and just hold on- tightly to the memories we have from 2003, 2010, 2013-14, and even 2016...or think perhaps it could turn around. I can take a bad winter...but I think most of us don't wanna think about the future of our snow. The thought of the thing that brought joy during the winter months may not be there as much. And the prospect of a future where you gotta pack up and travel hours away to get snow above your ankles (or even your shoes for that matter) is...depressing. And couple that with our current snow drought...that is literally the worst thing.

 

Btw Yeah this is a whine post. But it ain't nothin' else going on right now so I oughta be allowed just one this week

[Ralph Wiggum]

37 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's actually not shocking anymore. This seems to be a reoccurring theme even up in these latitudes year after year. Not surprising at all to see green grass in the winter with all the bogus thaws and consecutive days of low temperatures being 10 to 15 degrees above the normal high for the time of year.

The days of Vince Lombardi and frozen tundras are a very distant memory.

 

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I gave up…

But seriously the 12z euro had a similar thing. Perfect SW pass, sub 540, all rain from what “should” have been a 1-3” snow.  Those things add up and I’m noting them way too frequently. 

There is always “higher” pressure to our east as a wave approaches. Calling that a high pressure is a stretch and if a very brief 5mph regional south wind (it’s not like it’s a screaming fetch from the gulf) is too much in January with sub 540 thicknesses and a track to our south please explain to me what the right setup is for what used to be a typical small to moderate snow other than the obvious “we need arctic air” which is and always has been an exceptionally rare event. 

Am I really that “pessimistic” or am I just rational and it simply has been and continues to be “that bad”. Keep in mind in my seasonal forecasts I’ve busted high on snowfall like 70% of the time. Not crazy high usually, maybe only a couple inches, but still I over forecast snow way more then under.  Same with my individual storm forecasts. I’ve busted high slightly more than low. So again, am I pessimistic or simply realistic?  
 

BTW I know it’s mostly in jest and most aren’t actually mad at me. We joke. And you all know I want snow. I’ll be thrilled if I’m totally wrong and we get dumped with snow the rest of winter. I’ll gladly admit I was wrong and take that L.  But I’m not gonna blow smoke if I just don’t see it.  I do hope that fact is also appreciated.  Either way love you guys and I hope I’m wrong and we turn this around. 

Someone posted a map either here or in the NY forum showing the Gulf Stream has increased 7 degrees in temp over the past x years. It was a legit source. I'm assuming those increased new normal sst's are part of the reason. Probably.part of the reason we are seeing more "just offshore" bombs in recent years.  Has to be some sort of correlation one would think.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The days of Vince Lombardi and frozen tundras are a very distant memory.

 

Someone posted a map either here or inches NY forum showing the Gulf Stream has increased 7 degrees in temp over the past x years. It was a legit source. I'm assuming those increased new normal sst's are part of the reason. Probably.part of the reason we are seeing more "just offshore" bombs in recent years.  Has to be some sort of correlation one would think.

So let me get this straight (actually been meaning to ask about this)...Warmer SSTs...make it harder to get 50/50s, and thus less "tucked" solutions? Or am I missing something?

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

 

[TugHillMatt]

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Man whatever is happening is not good. Each year winter goal posts are narrowing at a rapid clip. Makes you wonder what winter will become in 10-20 years.  

 

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The days of Vince Lombardi and frozen tundras are a very distant memory.

 

Someone posted a map either here or inches NY forum showing the Gulf Stream has increased 7 degrees in temp over the past x years. It was a legit source. I'm assuming those increased new normal sst's are part of the reason. Probably.part of the reason we are seeing more "just offshore" bombs in recent years.  Has to be some sort of correlation one would think.

Yeah, I was reading in your sub about the weak low showing up at night and it's still RAIN there. That's been the case up here as well the past several years. Just no cold. Mild, maritime air in the dead of winter with rain even when Lows pass well to the south. It's disgusting. Even in the northern U.S. now, you want to be above 1200 feet in elevation if you want to see some real winter weather outside of the rare cold spells that can possibly produce.

[Ralph Wiggum]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I always appreciate your posts overall. And I don't think anybody wants ya to blow smoke (unless it's cold powder that makes everybody's streets cave). I just think the repeated reminders of longer term doom (beyond this season) are unpleasant to keep hearing about everyday. You're calling balls and strikes and I get that...so maybe it's just me, lol But I dread your posts these days because it's always bad news about not just this season (which is struggling right now) but future seasons...and the reminders of such. So that's like one depressing thing (current) and future depressing things (even less snow that we used to get). But again, that might just be a me problem. Still appreciate your knowledge and experience though--not saying anything against that at all!

I just hope when we all finally cash in PSU tracks and celebrates with us and we don't have to read his posts about how it will inevitably melt in 36 hours and will be 3+ years before we have another shot. I admire his sense of realism, just hope time is taken to savor the reward when the day comes. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

I was surprised that he used the ext gefs to make a point about the strength of the SPV.  I mean, a D10 forecast is pretty flimsy when it comes to predicting this stuff let alone 30 days.

I don't know the dude he is replying to but he is making a point about a D10-15 op run.  Which in itself is flimsy...

Agree.  Depending on the source the ideas in the HL and strat differ.  

For example Judah 

 

And this from Simon opposite view 

 

 

 

 

.........

[tombo82685]

57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I gave up…

But seriously the 12z euro had a similar thing. Perfect SW pass, sub 540, all rain from what “should” have been a 1-3” snow.  Those things add up and I’m noting them way too frequently. 

There is always “higher” pressure to our east as a wave approaches. Calling that a high pressure is a stretch and if a very brief 5mph regional south wind (it’s not like it’s a screaming fetch from the gulf) is too much in January with sub 540 thicknesses and a track to our south please explain to me what the right setup is for what used to be a typical small to moderate snow other than the obvious “we need arctic air” which is and always has been an exceptionally rare event. 

 

I'm just giving a reason as to why it may be showing it as rain. To elaborate on it, the airmass to me prior to the system is pretty crappy. Heck, january afternoon and it's above freezing all the way to the Canadian border.  Aloft it's cold enough but due to a meh airmass, southerly flow at the surface it's just enough to be rain. I bet though, if precip rates were heavier it may be a different story. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

^^^So if we get a SSWE end of January, given the lag we may salvage March? Cool, that's refreshing.

[cbmclean]

Back to square 1 on GEFS and GEPS.  Day 10+ shows western trough and eastern ridge on both, somewhat less bad on the GEPS.

[DarkSharkWX]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

 

yeah warmer SSTs mean more warm ocean influence but also more moisture. so that does mean whenever we do get a big storm, they are getting bigger in snowfall totals because of the increase moisture source(from GOM and atlantic ocean)