Terpeast Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: There's no sugarcoating the fact that this a complete dud of a winter so far and less than 2 months until March lol. I honestly have no idea how ski resorts stay in business anymore. If it wasn't for the fact that I actually like warmer weather, then I would 100% relocate to a snowier city. This is the wrong place to live if you need snow every winter, period. With that said, there's still time to correct things since hitting the average only really takes a couple of moderate production patterns. We seem to be stuck in a purgatory of a pattern that isn’t quite a complete torch, but not quite an arctic one, and the west is getting all the snow. We need a major forcing event to interrupt the pattern, like a SSW that falls into our favor or a high amplitude MJO event in a favorable phase. And when we start hoping for those kinds of pattern disruptors, we know this winter is in trouble. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: We seem to be stuck in a purgatory of a pattern that isn’t quite a complete torch, but not quite an arctic one, and the west is getting all the snow. We need a major forcing event to interrupt the pattern, like a SSW that falls into our favor or a high amplitude MJO event in a favorable phase. And when we start hoping for those kinds of pattern disruptors, we know this winter is in trouble. Was just thinking how this seems to be a west coast winter. My mom lives in Vegas (along with cousins in CA and CO) so if things don't change I might take a Feb or March trip out there and hit up a road trip. I definitely bantered here, but man this winter needs to start poppin' soon before the spring training posts take over lol. Hopefully, that trailing wave this weekend works out, or one of them thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 WB 12Z GEFS…middle of next week (under 10 days)…is at least a bone to watch… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 WB day 14 GEFS….is this a strat. warm that if correct could shake up the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB day 14 GEFS….is this a strat. warm that if correct could shake up the pattern? More a strat stretch. Nothing much to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 There’s no sign of a SSW anytime this month and even if there was one around Feb 1, it would be late Feb before any possible impacts occur. Plus Niña SSWs favor Europe for impacts. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There’s no sign of a SSW anytime this month and even if there was one around Feb 1, it would be late Feb before any possible impacts occur. Plus Niña SSWs favor Europe for impacts. Yeah, I'm no expert on SSWs so I trust your analysis... and that leaves the MJO. And it's tough to get into phase 8 during a slowly fading but stubborn Nina like this one. The latest model runs seem to be recognizing this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 19 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I'm no expert on SSWs so I trust your analysis... and that leaves the MJO. And it's tough to get into phase 8 during a slowly fading but stubborn Nina like this one. The latest model runs seem to be recognizing this. Believe…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Surface pressure and H5 looking pretty good on the GEFS for the window around the 13-15th. But the airmass… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Surface pressure and H5 looking pretty good on the GEFS for the window around the 13-15th. But the airmass… Yeah hard to say if it's gonna be cold enough in time. I had some optimism for that window, but ehhh....that might go in psu's log book unless we get some cold air from somewhere! (I mean can we get a little bit? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 WB 12Z EPS Under Day 10…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 I'm genuinely at the point where I'm questioning if BWI will challenge 1949/50 which recorded the lowest winter snow total of 0.7 inches. Not only have we not seen accumulation of any kind, but I haven't even seen pure snow flakes yet. By pure I mean snow flurries or showers that aren't sloppy and mixed with rain lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 WB EPS at Day 12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EPS at Day 12. That indicates fish storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That indicates fish storm. it's a pretty potent coastal signal at this range. nothing else is on the horizon, so I think this is worth keeping an eye on 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Few acceptable hits on the WB 12Z EPS clown maps for the second half of the period…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's a pretty potent coastal signal at this range. nothing else is on the horizon, so I think this is worth keeping an eye on I didn’t say it wasn’t worth watching. But the current h5 mean favors an OTS solution imo. Trough/Ridge alignment out west is too far east. And the trough is amplifying at our longitude when we want to see that happen around TN. Remember we need a much earlier and further west development here than NYC. We’ve missed just about every single coastal storm that’s crushed NYC the last 6 years because they’ve tracked to east or developed too late. For DC to get a big snow we need a low that’s already mature tucked in just off VA beach tracking NNE. This (at least on that mean) looks similar to all the recent misses. It’s close enough to watch. But it’s not a great look right there for us. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I didn’t say it wasn’t worth watching. But the current h5 mean favors an OTS solution imo. Trough/Ridge alignment out west is too far east. And the trough is amplifying at our longitude when we want to see that happen around TN. Remember we need a much earlier and further west development here than NYC. We’ve missed just about every single coastal storm that’s crushed NYC the last 6 years because they’ve tracked to east or developed too late. For DC to get a big snow we need a low that’s already mature tucked in just off VA beach tracking NNE. This (at least on that mean) looks similar to all the recent misses. It’s close enough to watch. But it’s not a great look right there for us. I'm sure it's a good look for @CAPEthough But yeah you right...that would be a more typical nina-like miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm sure it's a good look for @CAPE though In this set up with the advertised lack of available cold, probably not. This is a case where a modest wave or being on the western edge of an offshore low probably wouldn't work out that well for the coastal plain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 By the end of next week, it will shift westward and be another blizzard for Buffalo…but until then I will watch it….(perhaps keeping an eye on it will make all of the work that has piled up while I have been off for a week bearable to get through as I go back...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 And of course, the WB 12Z EURO control has it…. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 41 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I'm genuinely at the point where I'm questioning if BWI will challenge 1949/50 which recorded the lowest winter snow total of 0.7 inches. Dude, it's January 2nd 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: And of course, the WB 12Z EURO control has it…. Brings my seasonal snow total from the Euro Control to roughly 36 inches. I have measured zip on the ground to date. Also, even with some PV attacks via heat flux it means very little. Cold air source is a big concern and the super warm SST signature off New England remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Surface pressure and H5 looking pretty good on the GEFS for the window around the 13-15th. But the airmass… airmass is shit but we still do have cold air aloft and the MSLP anomaly shows a decent canadian high, as long as that trends stronger w due time in which most cases it does, it could be a storm to track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: airmass is shit but we still do have cold air aloft and the MSLP anomaly shows a decent canadian high, as long as that trends stronger w due time in which most cases it does, it could be a storm to track It’s not perfect, but for now it seems like the best window for frozen precip that we can see. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: It’s not perfect, but for now it seems like the best window for frozen precip that we can see. Yes, open that window, I'm in 1 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 A suppressed OTS look is what we want to see at range. I think it trends closer to the coast over time. My bigger concern is the airmass. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes, open that window, I'm in So, that's unconventional. Usually people in here jump out windows (or off cliffs) when things look bleak!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: So, that's unconventional. Usually people in here jump out windows (or off cliffs) when things look bleak!! Still are 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1030mb high in the lakes, weak sauce low passing to our south in mid January, 534dm heights, precip falling at night…and rain. Hoffman making notes. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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