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January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco


nj2va
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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

There's no sugarcoating the fact that this a complete dud of a winter so far and less than 2 months until March lol.  I honestly have no idea how ski resorts stay in business anymore.  If it wasn't for the fact that I actually like warmer weather, then I would 100% relocate to a snowier city.  This is the wrong place to live if you need snow every winter, period.

With that said, there's still time to correct things since hitting the average only really takes a couple of moderate production patterns.

We seem to be stuck in a purgatory of a pattern that isn’t quite a complete torch, but not quite an arctic one, and the west is getting all the snow. 

We need a major forcing event to interrupt the pattern, like a SSW that falls into our favor or a high amplitude MJO event in a favorable phase. 

And when we start hoping for those kinds of pattern disruptors, we know this winter is in trouble. 

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

We seem to be stuck in a purgatory of a pattern that isn’t quite a complete torch, but not quite an arctic one, and the west is getting all the snow. 

We need a major forcing event to interrupt the pattern, like a SSW that falls into our favor or a high amplitude MJO event in a favorable phase. 

And when we start hoping for those kinds of pattern disruptors, we know this winter is in trouble. 

Was just thinking how this seems to be a west coast winter.  My mom lives in Vegas (along with cousins in CA and CO) so if things don't change I might take a Feb or March trip out there and hit up a road trip.

I definitely bantered here, but man this winter needs to start poppin' soon before the spring training posts take over lol.  Hopefully, that trailing wave this weekend works out, or one of them thereafter.

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22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s no sign of a SSW anytime this month and even if there was one around Feb 1, it would be late Feb before any possible impacts occur. Plus Niña SSWs favor Europe for impacts.

Yeah, I'm no expert on SSWs so I trust your analysis... and that leaves the MJO. And it's tough to get into phase 8 during a slowly fading but stubborn Nina like this one. The latest model runs seem to be recognizing this.

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Surface pressure and H5 looking pretty good on the GEFS for the window around the 13-15th.  But the airmass…:yikes:

Yeah hard to say if it's gonna be cold enough in time. I had some optimism for that window, but ehhh....that might go in psu's log book unless we get some cold air from somewhere! (I mean can we get a little bit? Lol)

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I'm genuinely at the point where I'm questioning if BWI will challenge 1949/50 which recorded the lowest winter snow total of 0.7 inches. Not only have we not seen accumulation of any kind, but I haven't even seen pure snow flakes yet. By pure I mean snow flurries or showers that aren't sloppy and mixed with rain lol. 

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13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's a pretty potent coastal signal at this range. nothing else is on the horizon, so I think this is worth keeping an eye on

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-3654400.thumb.png.b9e8955a48e7f5a333f1a88496ddaef2.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-3719200.thumb.png.7ed0e2709ee08be65175c1fd22ca8578.png

I didn’t say it wasn’t worth watching. But the current h5 mean favors an OTS solution imo.  Trough/Ridge alignment out west is too far east.  And the trough is amplifying at our longitude when we want to see that happen around TN. Remember we need a much earlier and further west development here than NYC. We’ve missed just about every single coastal storm that’s crushed NYC the last 6 years because they’ve tracked to east or developed too late.  For DC to get a big snow we need a low that’s already mature tucked in just off VA beach tracking NNE. This (at least on that mean) looks similar to all the recent misses. It’s close enough to watch. But it’s not a great look right there for us. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t say it wasn’t worth watching. But the current h5 mean favors an OTS solution imo.  Trough/Ridge alignment out west is too far east.  And the trough is amplifying at our longitude when we want to see that happen around TN. Remember we need a much earlier and further west development here than NYC. We’ve missed just about every single coastal storm that’s crushed NYC the last 6 years because they’ve tracked to east or developed too late.  For DC to get a big snow we need a low that’s already mature tucked in just off VA beach tracking NNE. This (at least on that mean) looks similar to all the recent misses. It’s close enough to watch. But it’s not a great look right there for us. 

I'm sure it's a good look for @CAPEthough :lol:

But yeah you right...that would be a more typical nina-like miss

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm sure it's a good look for @CAPE though :lol:

In this set up with the advertised lack of available cold, probably not. This is a case where a modest wave or being on the western edge of an offshore low probably wouldn't work out that well for the coastal plain.

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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

And of course, the WB 12Z EURO control has it….

92A800BF-F9FC-496D-A332-A5BDFC939359.png

DB29AA1A-ABB8-423F-B8BD-7EAF574D916A.png

 

Brings my seasonal snow total from the Euro Control to roughly 36 inches. I have measured zip on the ground to date.    

Also, even with some PV attacks via heat flux it means very little.  Cold air source is a big concern and the super warm SST signature off New England remains. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Surface pressure and H5 looking pretty good on the GEFS for the window around the 13-15th.  But the airmass…:yikes:

airmass is shit but we still do have cold air aloft and the MSLP anomaly shows a decent canadian high, as long as that trends stronger w due time in which most cases it does, it could be a storm to track

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4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

airmass is shit but we still do have cold air aloft and the MSLP anomaly shows a decent canadian high, as long as that trends stronger w due time in which most cases it does, it could be a storm to track

It’s not perfect, but for now it seems like the best window for frozen precip that we can see. 

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