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January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco


nj2va
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45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yesterday I noted across guidance there were several mid latitude waves in the next 2 weeks with no appreciable frozen precip associated with them anywhere. Maybe some rain/snow mix on the NW periphery.  Another thing logged into the journal.  I’ve noted this before a lot lately.
 

It seems we need arctic air to get frozen precip south of 40* lately. Problem is that was always rare. Getting snow at 32* in a blah airmass from a good track was always the more common way we snowed. 

I think eventually we'll get used to the state of things. We may need to just let go of how things used to be (difficult but possible since eventually expectations will be lowered, lol) And like you said, none of this suggests we can't still get bigger snows It's just that the totals in between may become more mediocre. That part is kinda sad at times, but in the New Year I'm tryin' not to get too sad/depressed about weather. Not sure it's worth the energy (I say that but it ain't gonna be easy to let go of some stuff...We've certainly had some fun times!) But again...I think we can still get big snows! :lol:

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Pretty surprising to have this substantial of a signal out at D14 for a coastal, as depicted by the GEFS. In the short term, I think our issue with the 6-10th threats simply hinges on how long it will take to flush out the PAC puke, and I can remember a similar thing happening 2 years ago (Jan 1-15th 2021), where it took weeks for things to become less marginal in the East after a longstanding Alaskan low. Hopefully the further we distance ourselves from the recent influx of Pacific air, the more favorable things will become (before the inevitable Feb -PNA fest)

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-3762400.thumb.png.0b43edb2060e2d2860dc8c8b06f8af36.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500_anom-3762400.thumb.png.1d5f09f45fb004306cbe67b92cf0eff3.png

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? 

Hope that isn't the case. Punting all of December and February and the first half of January leaves us with two weeks of prime climo and hail mary's in March.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Hope that isn't the case. Punting all of December and February and the first half of January leaves us with two weeks of prime climo and hail mary's in March.

I wouldn't say December was punted.  More like we kept fumbling.  The Arctic blast was like a 98 yard run down to the 1 yard line that yielded no points.

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16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Pretty surprising to have this substantial of a signal out at D14 for a coastal, as depicted by the GEFS. In the short term, I think our issue with the 6-10th threats simply hinges on how long it will take to flush out the PAC puke, and I can remember a similar thing happening 2 years ago (Jan 1-15th 2021), where it took weeks for things to become less marginal in the East after a longstanding Alaskan low. Hopefully the further we distance ourselves from the recent influx of Pacific air, the more favorable things will become (before the inevitable Feb -PNA fest)

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-3762400.thumb.png.0b43edb2060e2d2860dc8c8b06f8af36.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500_anom-3762400.thumb.png.1d5f09f45fb004306cbe67b92cf0eff3.png

Some signal for a 50/50 low as wellimage.png.a6b1d1a24942fe3f5d9afd5eb61237db.png

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? 

Well that's classic Nina climo for one reason.  Not sure why Eric Webber was seeming so sure unless part of his campaign to drive NE snow weenies crazy.

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5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well that's classic Nina climo for one reason.  Not sure why Eric Webber was seeming so sure unless part of his campaign to drive NE snow weenies crazy.

He isn't the only one. Seems like alot of folks are banking on the classic Nina progression. I mean Nina history says we will have to work for our chances in Feb. That's always a thing. Just looking for stats that might support this Feb being an anomaly rather than Nina SER norm.

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14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If I’m right about this winter, the second half of January is our best shot at a decent snowfall. 

We whiff this time and Feb goes +3 with the -pna/SE ridge coming back, best we can hope for is a late Feb early March gift. 

You may be right brother.  I am sort of leaning(more like hoping for,lol) toward a non typical Nina Feb. . I'm banking that on the MJO. Those SST's should warm enough by then to allow for greater amplitude into the cold phases. Of course, we will start having wave length changes late Month of which will affect one way or the other. The Atlantic is really a thorn still, as we need that 50-50 and those SST's affecting that area may not become favorable.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? 

Weakening NIna with ENSO neutral favored moving forward into Feb, plus we have seen the atmosphere exhibit Nino tendencies to this point. Mostly overly simplistic 'thinking' from certain twitter weather geeks imo.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Weakening NIna with neutral favored moving forward into Feb, plus we have seen the atmosphere exhibit Nino tendencies to this point. Mostly overly simplistic 'thinking' from certain twitter weather geeks imo.

Yeah this does not feel like your typical nina. I mean...the last 4 we had before this one...weren't they all colder on the front end? (Some cold/dry, others like last year cold with some snow around). This one seems a bit unusual...

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EPS also has an intriguing look out at Day 14. Takeaway is that all 3 of the major ensembles look to mix things up as we enter the D10-15 period. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_1day-3870400.thumb.png.2559f99c229356f60c5646c96ea71f56.png

EPS also moderates temperatures quite well, so after an anomalously warm start to the month, the ensemble mean has the following 10 days closer to +1-3F which isn't all too warm during peak cold climo. The temp distribution with +10-15F across much of Canada definitely reminds me of Jan 2021. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_10day-3870400.thumb.png.e5a066b05ea533e4a3bea809db27f594.png

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? 

Yes, the models that fail at predicting snowfall at 7-10 days away 90%+ of the time make it knowable and 100% certain we will get no snow in February. :raining:

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12 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Yes, the models that fail at predicting snowfall at 7-10 days away 90%+ of the time make it knowable and 100% certain we will get no snow in February. :raining:

Not what I said at all. Nothing about models. Ppl are using Nina analogs to assume February will be punted. I think it's a narrow way to think which is why I wanted to hear from others on this board.

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