IronTy Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sit tight guys....its coming. Yesterday's update... The SER? From your lips to god's ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whoa holllllldup...I'm reading an article that said the first of the 2010 twin blizzards was a Miller B? Huh... Second Feb 2010 was a classic Miller B with a northern stream shortwave that exploded off the coast. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 44 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whoa holllllldup...I'm reading an article that said the first of the 2010 twin blizzards was a Miller B? Huh... 2 storm systems phased together and then a near-stationary UL ridge over maritime provinces of canada prevented it from going NE and instead it moved east. this also made the storm stall off the coast before eventually moving OTS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 58 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yep February 11th, 1983, that was a fun storm 22" 40-50 mph winds 5–8-foot snow drifts and thunder and lightning! I think the very next day the big melt off began though. I ended up with 26-28 inches. Hour after hour of sustained 2-3 inch per hour rates. If memory serves correct most of the snow fell in a 12 hour period between 5:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 51 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whoa holllllldup...I'm reading an article that said the first of the 2010 twin blizzards was a Miller B? Huh... lol you seem to have a lot of misconceptions about this. I kinda hate the labels myself, but based on the definitions that are used, we get plenty of snow from miller B/hybrid events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol you seem to have a lot of misconceptions about this. I kinda hate the labels myself, but based on the definitions that are used, we get plenty of snow from miller B/hybrid events. Yeah you right I do...I think it's just recency bias. During this brutal stretch all the Miller B attempts have flopped...so perhaps my perspective is indeed a bit skewed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Kudos to you on the December call that seemed destined for a bust 3 weeks ago. Hope you’re equally prescient for January! Ironically enough...there was a bit more blocking during December than I had expected, yet we ended up witha little less snow relative to my expectation near the coast. Strange month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Big change on 12z Euro ensemble charts regarding EPO. After days of positive to neutral it finally brings it in solid negative territory. All other indices appears to be lining up as well. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is now like the GEFS in the LR now. this is a really nice look I ignored the EPS in my blog yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Second Feb 2010 was a classic Miller B with a northern stream shortwave that exploded off the coast. Most storms fall somewhere along a Miller A/B hybrid continuum. All I meant in my blog is that I don't think they will close off in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 GFS trying a little something at 120-144. Nothing huge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS trying a little something at 120-144. Nothing huge Jaws?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 In all seriousness, GFS is really working on hammering out something consistently now for our upcoming weekend. The tracking continues.. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, DE2PA said: Jaws?! Not even close. But hey, in this winter so far, it's....something. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, DE2PA said: Jaws?! Gotta be careful on the PBP (especially for those of us with less experience, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 pros and cons of the event near the 7th: pros: we're working with one shortwave here and idk if this is confirmation bias but this winter the common theme has been for shortwaves to trend more and more amped as we get closer. more amped + more neg tilt would let this trailing wave drag more cold air in while also being stronger and more robust meaning snow for many of us cons: the antecedent airmass is pretty marginal and the cold air the cutter before drags in is kinda shit because of how marginal everything is. as long as our storm gets stronger though we should (?) be fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Infuriating that the model rains on us with this map in early January..this is the stuff that psu mentions in this warm cycle we are in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 WB 18Z GEFS not impressed with late week…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 47 minutes ago, Ji said: Infuriating that the model rains on us with this map in early January..this is the stuff that psu mentions in this warm cycle we are in Lmao there is barely any precip. Where there is in the mountains with some upslope it's snow as depicted, but due to the fast flow/positively tilted/damping wave, it just dries up east of there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lmao there is barely any precip. Where there is in the mountains with some upslope it's snow as depicted, but due to the fast flow/positively tilted/damping wave, it just dries up east of there. WB 17 GEFS Friday precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 17 GEFS Friday precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 17 GEFS Friday precip. Next to nothing. The available cold is marginal late next week, so a progressive, weak wave might produce a light sprinkle or mangled flake in the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Infuriating that the model rains on us with this map in early January..this is the stuff that psu mentions in this warm cycle we are in First I don't trust precip type maps especially at this range still. Also, I think those colder temps bleed in and most precip falls prior thus why the algorithm is showing it as cold rain/wet flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS not impressed with late week…. P30 would be accurate in a normal year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 I guess we have progressed from PAC firehose to describe the jet extension into the West Coast to "atmospheric river"? Atmospheric River 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 43 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 17 GEFS Friday precip. @psuhoffman Jackpot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro gives some flakeage Jan 5th and 6th to parts. Norlun style. No way this fails. If we can't Norlun, we can't nothin My daughters name is Nora Lynn 2 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS still advertises an improving pattern and progressively colder air as we approach mid month. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 00z GFS still flirting with next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Gfs is still certainly trying for some pitty flakes next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now