AlexD1990 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS somehow manages to get a little something going along the coast despite multiple pieces of vorticity intertwining within a positively tilted trough while an amplified ridge is bearing down right on top. Watch that be the only way we get snow this year LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS somehow manages to get a little something going along the coast despite multiple pieces of vorticity intertwining within a positively tilted trough while an amplified ridge is bearing down right on top. Git 'er done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 I like the look of the 1/11 storm. Ridge out west looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 This says there is a Jan 2016 repeat + another MECS on top of that. Lol. We take! And would you look at that, it all spawns from a simpler setup than we had in December too. Never fails. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 56 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: Watch that be the only way we get snow this year LOL A late developing somewhat offshore low is a good way for your area to get snow, as long as the airmass is decently cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure if you've put me on ignore or not (I am getting better, btw), but I was gonna say...Is it wrong to suppose that it looks a little more split-flowy (i.e more nino-ish) past next weekend? Or something that doesn't look nina-like, lol The pattern continues to look more Nino than Nina. But unfortunately not all ninos are good. Remember we like modoki ninos. Some east based ones can be ok. But the more east centered the Nino the more chance the north pacific low ends up too Far East and floods N America with mild air. Unfortunately that’s the kind of Nino pattern we’re in. The top analogs right now do include 4 ninos. But they are the 4 worst ninos lol. 1983, 1992, 1995 and 1998. 83 was saved by one big storm but was a torch otherwise. The rest were simply torches straight through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern continues to look more Nino than Nina. But unfortunately not all ninos are good. Remember we like modoki ninos. Some east based ones can be ok. But the more east centered the Nino the more chance the north pacific low ends up too Far East and floods N America with mild air. Unfortunately that’s the kind of Nino pattern we’re in. The top analogs right now do include 4 ninos. But they are the 4 worst ninos lol. 1983, 1992, 1995 and 1998. 83 was saved by one big storm but was a torch otherwise. The rest were simply torches straight through. Yeah, that was what I was saying in my recent comment this morning. I was hoping to see this week’s torch come to a quick end with a nice pna ridge and plenty of cold air in Canada to set things up for the next wave that decides to come by. What I’m seeing in the latest ensemble runs is +5 to +10 air across the eastern 2/3 of Canada, and my first thought was “how is this going to lead to snow here?” As much as I want to see it, I just don’t. Not yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 If nothing burgers were the same as the Gino's Hero burger of yesteryear surely a great number of us would have died from heart attacks by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern continues to look more Nino than Nina. But unfortunately not all ninos are good. Remember we like modoki ninos. Some east based ones can be ok. But the more east centered the Nino the more chance the north pacific low ends up too Far East and floods N America with mild air. Unfortunately that’s the kind of Nino pattern we’re in. The top analogs right now do include 4 ninos. But they are the 4 worst ninos lol. 1983, 1992, 1995 and 1998. 83 was saved by one big storm but was a torch otherwise. The rest were simply torches straight through. Do positive analogs even exist anymore? Like frickin' bad news bears nina and nino...not one positive comparison! Incredible, lol Now...83 and 98 were super niños, right? So of course we don't have that...unless the pattern does indeed resemble a niño? Now of course 1992 ya had the Pinatubo effect (now ironically we're almost a year removed from the Hunga Tunga eruption--the effects of which are yet to be determined?) Overall yes it does make sense we want more modoki to not flood too much mild air East (thanks for the clarification there). So then...how does the niño-like look we got now mix with the nina? I'm not sure we have the final outcome on that...but is the torch for Jan really lookin' that bad, tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Do positive analogs even exist anymore? Like frickin' bad news bears nina and nino...not one positive comparison! Incredible, lol Now...83 and 98 were super niños, right? So of course we don't have that...unless the pattern does indeed resemble a niño? Now of course 1992 ya had the Pinatubo effect (now ironically we're almost a year removed from the Hunga Tunga eruption--the effects of which are yet to be determined?) Overall yes it does make sense we want more modoki to not flood too much mild air East (thanks for the clarification there). So then...how does the niño-like look we got now mix with the nina? I'm not sure we have the final outcome on that. We don't even know if we're actually gonna torch for an extended time...do we? Nowhere near a super nino, more like an east based one. Check the pac SST map, you’ll see relatively warmer temps in nino 1.2 vs 3.4. Don’t think we’re saying extended torch, we don’t know. But I’m less confident compared to a couple days ago after seeing the models get warmer each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Been afk for a while. Just wanted to say, I endorse this look on the 12z GEFS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Been afk for a while. Just wanted to say, I endorse this look on the 12z GEFS Afk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Bro, 16 weenies?!?! That's gotta be close to a record 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Bro, 16 weenies?!?! That's gotta be close to a record Pretty sure one of George001's post got like 40-50 lmao 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Afk? Away from (the) keyboard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Away from (the) keyboard Ah dang it for the life of me I couldn't figure out the "k", haha Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Been afk for a while. Just wanted to say, I endorse this look on the 12z GEFS I assume more ensembles/models will start to adjust to this look more in the LR with the MJO going into phases 8/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/december-largely-evolves-as-forecast.html Sit tight guys....its coming. Yesterday's update... 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Euro gives some flakeage Jan 5th and 6th to parts. Norlun style. No way this fails. If we can't Norlun, we can't nothin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sit tight guys....its coming. Invoking the Jan 96 analog, eh? I knew I liked you for a reason. Make it happen captain. LFG!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sit tight guys....its coming. Yesterday's update... Kudos to you on the December call that seemed destined for a bust 3 weeks ago. Hope you’re equally prescient for January! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sit tight guys....its coming. Yesterday's update... Thanks for the write-up! (I'll try to look past you saying Miller B since the rest was so good ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 ground would be made up quickly if this comes to fruition. this is basically a nino look with the split flow and below average heights in the SE US 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 12z EPS is trying for the late week thing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 EPS is now like the GEFS in the LR now. this is a really nice look 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 EPS looks good as well likely reacting to MJO going in favorable phases 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is now like the GEFS in the LR now. this is a really nice look Suggestive of a coastal storm around the 15th from a shortwave that sheds off the retrograding trough and tracks eastward as the PNA ridge pops. Implies some sort of a Miller B evolution per surface pressure and precip panels. Pretty strong signal at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: Suggestive of a coastal storm around the 15th from a shortwave that sheds off the retrograding trough as the PNA ridge pops. Implies some sort of a Miller B evolution per surface pressure and precip panels. Pretty strong signal at this range. *tries to bite tongue about Miller Bs being awful for yard* So I'm wondering...do Miller As really only exist in niños? (I'd like to see a chart of just how many of our coastal were As or a hybrid vs Bs) I mean they seem to only happen a few times a decade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern continues to look more Nino than Nina. But unfortunately not all ninos are good. Remember we like modoki ninos. Some east based ones can be ok. But the more east centered the Nino the more chance the north pacific low ends up too Far East and floods N America with mild air. Unfortunately that’s the kind of Nino pattern we’re in. The top analogs right now do include 4 ninos. But they are the 4 worst ninos lol. 1983, 1992, 1995 and 1998. 83 was saved by one big storm but was a torch otherwise. The rest were simply torches straight through. Yep February 11th, 1983, that was a fun storm 22" 40-50 mph winds 5–8-foot snow drifts and thunder and lightning! I think the very next day the big melt off began though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Whoa holllllldup...I'm reading an article that said the first of the 2010 twin blizzards was a Miller B? Huh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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