Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

49 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

We shall see. He had 4 - 10 way west Of Hagerstown.

That would be one of the worst seasonal snowfalls on record for KHGR.

If we get to the end of January and still no snow then he might have a chance to crow.

Looking like we easily get to Mid January without anything.

I don’t think they put much effort into those maps once outside the DC metro area and immediate surrounding area. 

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm done looking up top for good looks. I mean wtf is this and we still torch? Probably not right but cmon already. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_54.png

This has been more common than actually getting a “typical”  blocking response the last few years.  It seems blocking the first half of the season has lost its mid latitude impact recently. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Clueless said:

It’s wasn’t pretty. At least it’s happy hour. 

Something has to be wrong beyond our comprehension.  Or at least mine. Pretty much mine.  Even the tiny bit of precip that moves through is rain with 534 line nearby and peak climo.  This winter so far is challenging everything I think is correct at h5 to give us a chance.  I just don’t get it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Something has to be wrong beyond our comprehension.  Or at least mine. Pretty much mine.  Even the tiny bit of precip that moves through is rain with 534 line nearby and peak climo.  This winter so far is challenging everything I think is correct at h5 to give us a chance.  I just don’t get it. 

You don’t get it…or you don’t want to “get it”? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No meltdowns for me this year. Snow has treated me like the redskins. I used to cry and be upset all week when they lost. After much abuse...I just became numb. If they win...great. if not...then no big deal. There are other things in life besides cheering for something you have no control of

  • Like 7
  • Confused 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

No meltdowns for me this year. Snow has treated me like the redskins. I used to cry and be upset all week when they lost. After much abuse...I just became numb. If they win...great. if not...then no big deal. There are other things in life besides cheering for something you have no control of

Wow, you’ve changed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Something has to be wrong beyond our comprehension.  Or at least mine. Pretty much mine.  Even the tiny bit of precip that moves through is rain with 534 line nearby and peak climo.  This winter so far is challenging everything I think is correct at h5 to give us a chance.  I just don’t get it. 

You’re looking at ptype in the Op at D+10 right? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

No meltdowns for me this year. Snow has treated me like the redskins. I used to cry and be upset all week when they lost. After much abuse...I just became numb. If they win...great. if not...then no big deal. There are other things in life besides cheering for something you have no control of

Liar

  • Like 1
  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Both maybe.  You laid it out pretty well.  I do read all your posts.  Base state and all.  Maybe the second one…in quotes. 

Before some jump down my throat I will clearly state again that this is definitely a bad unlucky cyclical period (at least we better pray it is).  But I really do believe that. Better times are ahead. The issue is how much better.  
 

I’ve seen several troubling things over the last 5 years.  Like when a sub 1000mb low took a perfect track in late January without it even being a particularly hostile airmass and produced nothing but 38 degree rain. Or when several high latitude blocks linked with mid latitude ridging.  DC getting single digit snow in a season I had 50”. That’s unprecedented. Usually in the past if my area does that well DC is closer to 20”.   Struggling to even get below freezing at night for very long stretches.  I’ve noted that the southern mid Atlantic has decoupled with locations they used to have more correlation wrt snowfall. The bad years have been awful but years that should have been good weren’t that good. Frankly the last really “snowy” cycle was the early 2000s but it failed to produce the same level of above normal anomalies in DC as further north or higher in elevation except for 2003 and 2010. 
 

Each time I say hmm and log them away. The log is getting longer then I am comfortable with.  But it will snow again, very likely this season at least some. And eventually we will get another 2003/2010/2014 type season. Don’t take my frustration to mean I don’t think it can snow anymore. But I do think years in between the unicorn snowy seasons are becoming increasingly a struggle. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB extended GEFS- 7 day temp. departures at Days 10, 20, and 30.  Really takes until about the 20th for areas along the east coast to go normal/ slightly below normal.

9A808A2E-37B1-4706-A628-FB35B4DA51BE.png

78FE9AFB-BB2F-4C6C-9208-064E5E283B96.png

AF201DA2-FE64-41E3-88D5-DCAC4B71B769.png

Not that I take these LR maps literally, but my -1 January call for DC is likely blown even before the month starts.

And I have Feb at +3.

I’d love to be wrong, but it’s not looking great.

I’m starting to sound like psuhoffman, but we only need one decent storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not that I take these LR maps literally, but my -1 January call for DC is likely blown even before the month starts.

And I have Feb at +3.

I’d love to be wrong, but it’s not looking great.

I’m starting to sound like psuhoffman, but we only need one decent storm. 

Agreed, one decent storm would be great…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ji said:

No meltdowns for me this year. Snow has treated me like the redskins. I used to cry and be upset all week when they lost. After much abuse...I just became numb. If they win...great. if not...then no big deal. There are other things in life besides cheering for something you have no control of

Wentz to the rescue.  But seriously, the Commanders actually have some talent to build upon.  The Wizards, on the other hand, make me want Baltimore to get an expansion team.

Re snow...gambler's fallacy says we're due.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...