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January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco


nj2va
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1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said:

Really exciting lmao, I'm hoping I'm able to get to Deep Creek earlier around 1 PM rather than 7 PM to avoid all the snow and to be able to experience it.

CMC is similar with the upslope setup.  Even though I’ll miss it by two days (back here on the 26th) I’m hoping for a banger to give the ski areas a good week of business.  

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If you had a friend you had to advise about cross country travel late next week, what would you say?

To me, it’s relatively straightforward in just saying there’s going to be a storm with very low pressure resembling the pressure of a strong hurricane. The path will dictate everything else. 

The amount of detail that still has to be worked out is huge, but can we not just appreciate the pressure bombs these outputs keep on releasing?

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Looking at the 500 layer, it looks like there’s a healthy vort swinging through on Christmas Day
14629F83-D3CB-4599-BDFF-D01BEA7F34CC.thumb.png.082fffcac8ca5cba49973055e3e55044.png
 
But there’s nothing reflected on the surface. Is this just a complete lack of moisture, or is this something to keep an eye on that could sneak up on us?
You try finding moisture after that first swing blade blast pulls through

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

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Cant deny the trend for more of the tpv being pealed off and creating some confluence.  No indication that it makes a ton of difference so far, especially for eastern areas. But, if things keep trending for another 24hr it may create a scenario of more frozen.

GFS - CMC818821630_ScreenShot2022-12-17at11_48_47PM.png.05a3a7c946635885677ef46b42e10cd2.png

 

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Just now, Snowmadness said:

Still learning here and not experienced like many but over the past three GFS runs the trough has been shifting eastward

d0478d81-8054-40ed-8d44-46f2afbcfc1e.thumb.gif.5d24b328a0e48d12e25a53f81d2771c9.gif
But conversely, the TPV (minus anomalies in Canada) is getting its fingers deeper and deeper into the cookie jar with each run, and the low in the north Atlantic is moving away. Trace clockwise circles around the red and counter-clockwise around the blue... our storm is right in the middle of two features that want to send it on a 0-degree heading.

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7 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

How was the jebwalk after that particular storm...compared to past storms? Was it a top-10, top-5, top-3, or #1 Jebwalk event?

That, was definitely Top 3. It was unbelievable. I was digging deep powder snow for days, and happily walking in it as well, and doing some rather silly wallowing in drifts at night when I didnt think anyone could see me. I was also engaging in walking in other peoples' snow late at night. It's truly fun and utterly satisfying, to in effect steal other peoples' drifts by selfishly wallowing in other peoples' deep drifts at 330am because I get so damned obsessed with wallowing in deep drifted snow. Its very fun, when it's STOLEN snow, that I selfishly wallowed in under cover of darkness and under cover of it being in the middle of the night, when people are sleeping the sleep of the just, while I get my fill of their drifts. Then they wake up the next morning wondering, Who was the selfish bastard who desecrated my drifts?

Yeah.

It was The Jebman. Guilty as charged.

I did that a LOT in the Great Blizzard of 2016, GB 16.

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