January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

Looking at the individual members on the 6z GEFS, there is quite a mixture. Most are rain or not much of anything, but some imply a second wave or rain ending as snow. There are timing differences too with a few having precip on the 8th. Overall there are a few more members than previous runs that imply frozen for a chunk of the MA in the 6-8th window.

[Ralph Wiggum]

37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Stronger signal on the 6z GEFS for a winter storm on the 6-7th, but mostly for PA northeastward into central/northern NE.

Who wouldn't take this fantasy look in early January? If we didn't know it was going to push mid 60s a few days prior we would be more inclined to believe it:

Like I said to you yesterday, this window doesn't have alot going for it especially lacking antecedent cold air in place. But I could see a rain ending as snow type deal. The threat window towards mid month starting around the 12th has much more going for it attm but we r wayyyy out there in la la land with that one. And you know how Nina progs flip on a dime even within a week. Still can't get a solid feel on the current 7-8 day window. 

[BristowWx]

37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking at the individual members on the 6z GEFS, there is quite a mixture. Most are rain or not much of anything, but some imply a second wave or rain ending as snow. There are timing differences too with a few having precip on the 8th. Overall there are a few more members than previous runs that imply frozen for a chunk of the MA in the 6-8th window.

It is nice to see the op run showing better chances instead of cutters.  it would be nice to just get on the board and actually see it snow for once.  Even cartoppers seem hard to come by

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Who wouldn't take this fantasy look in early January? If we didn't know it was going to push mid 60s a few days prior we would be more inclined to believe it:

Like I said to you yesterday, this window doesn't have alot going for it especially lacking antecedent cold air in place. But I could see a rain ending as snow type deal. The threat window towards mid month starting around the 12th has much more going for it attm but we r wayyyy out there in la la land with that one. And you know how Nina progs flip on a dime even within a week. Still can't get a solid feel on the current 7-8 day window. 

Need the Canadians and Europeans to get onboard. GFS vs the world hasn't worked out lately. They both have a wave but with somewhat different evolutions, and the ridge behind is more amped/breaks over. In a fast flow it just gets swept off the coast with no chance for surface development.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need the Canadians and Europeans to get onboard. GFS vs the world hasn't worked out lately. They both have a wave but with somewhat different evolutions, and the ridge behind is more amped/breaks over. In a fast flow it just gets swept off the coast with no chance for surface development.

I'm with you. I think this Jan 6-8 thing is happening during our transition. And most of the time these don't work. I'm more interested in the lw looks a week later headed to mid month. Pretty sure we are on the same page wrt both of those things I mentioned. Did @WxUSAF take a vacation?

[Chris78]

The vort pass on the GFS is a thing of beauty. 

Too bad it's America vs the world

Didn't work out to well last time lol.

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm with you. I think this Jan 6-8 thing is happening during our transition. And most of the time these don't work. I'm more interested in the lw looks a week later headed to mid month. Pretty sure we are on the same page wrt both of those things I mentioned. Did @WxUSAF take a vacation?

I’m here and I am on vacation actually lol. Just not going to spend too much time parsing D9+. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The vort pass on the GFS is a thing of beauty. 

Too bad it's America vs the world

Didn't work out to well last time lol.

I have a hunch this amping of sw's pressing East across the TN Valley is going to be a bias of the new GFS we are going to have to get used to. This would be 3 in a row it did this with at day 7-9. Just something I've noticed. May or may not be a thing.

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm with you. I think this Jan 6-8 thing is happening during our transition. And most of the time these don't work. I'm more interested in the lw looks a week later headed to mid month. Pretty sure we are on the same page wrt both of those things I mentioned. Did @WxUSAF take a vacation?

The ‘Simpsons’ storm if this thing works out.  You’ve been hitting on this potential threat.  Like you and CAPE have pointed out, a lot going against this and hard to get on board if Europeans and Canadians aren’t a fan.  But fun to enjoy that digital blue for a few more hours at least. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m here and I am on vacation actually lol. Just not going to spend too much time parsing D9+. 

Good to hear from you. Enjoy your vacation. Just hadn't seen many folks touching post Jan 8 aside from @CAPE and myself. You are usually driving the bus. 

[aldie 22]

Dejapu all over again 

[snowfan]

20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Dejapu all over again 

Subtle

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Who wouldn't take this fantasy look in early January? If we didn't know it was going to push mid 60s a few days prior we would be more inclined to believe it:

We often get good storms within a couple of days of really warm temperatures.  Most recently that happened last January, but it is pretty common around here.  I'm always hearing people say, "its too warm to snow", or "it won't stick" when we are predicting a coastal storm 2 days after it hits 60 or 70. I could be wrong, but I seem to recall it was pretty warm just a couple days before Jan '16 too.  

[North Balti Zen]

56 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Dejapu all over again 

Nah. I've decided this has a chance. why, you might ask? (and even if you didn't I will explain) Because during epic pattern it was the ensembles that kept everyone on the string but the op was like, "eff you" and never really came through. Now I am being told the op is on board and the ensembles are not really interested. So, ergo, ipso factor, carry the 1, divide by 0, this chance is real. Science. 

[Weather Will]

What is encouraging is that the end of the torch period is now under 10 days….specifics TBD.

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

It is nice to see the op run showing better chances instead of cutters.  it would be nice to just get on the board and actually see it snow for once.  Even cartoppers seem hard to come by

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS at Day 6 and 6Z Euro ensemble mean at Day 6, ( not much different) extrapolate at will…

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

We often get good storms within a couple of days of really warm temperatures.  Most recently that happened last January, but it is pretty common around here.  I'm always hearing people say, "its too warm to snow", or "it won't stick" when we are predicting a coastal storm 2 days after it hits 60 or 70. I could be wrong, but I seem to recall it was pretty warm just a couple days before Jan '16 too.  

It does happen. Last Jan was an example, but the main difference is the cold coming in was legit and sharp. Even though temps were 60 leading in, it started off as snow and much of it fell with temps in the low to mid 20s. The way this pattern seems to be evolving on the means, it looks like more of a gradual transition to somewhat colder. That doesn't mean we can't get a similar result.

[snowmagnet]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It does happen. Last Jan was an example, but the main difference is the cold coming in was legit and sharp. Even though temps were 60 leading in, it started off as snow and much of it fell with temps in the low to mid 20s. The way this pattern seems to be evolving on the means, it looks like more of a gradual transition to somewhat colder. That doesn't mean we can't get a similar result.

At least there is something to track.  I think that's what everyone here needs most of all.  I'm hopeful that we will luck out with something by mid-January! 

 

[AlexD1990]

3 hours ago, DE2PA said:

60 degrees to 16” in ~48hrs. What could go wrong?

Worked last year..

[Its a Breeze]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

We often get good storms within a couple of days of really warm temperatures.  Most recently that happened last January, but it is pretty common around here.  I'm always hearing people say, "its too warm to snow", or "it won't stick" when we are predicting a coastal storm 2 days after it hits 60 or 70. I could be wrong, but I seem to recall it was pretty warm just a couple days before Jan '16 too.  

Often? How about always. I never understand why people still say that stuff ("it's too warm", "it won't stick", etc.) Do you not remember the last time, and the time before that, and the time before that, and the time before that?

A 'cold snow' is about as rare as a white Christmas around here.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

Often? How about always. I never understand why people still say that stuff ("it's too warm", "it won't stick", etc.) Do you not remember the last time, and the time before that, and the time before that, and the time before that?

A 'cold snow' is about as rare as a white Christmas around here.

you just need better rates when its coming off a warm spell and you waste a bit more than if it snows after a cold spell like if it snowed on Boxing day this year.  so there is some validity to it...not a big deal...but just my own observations at my house prove to me that sticking and caving of surfaces comes down to more than what the temp was a few days prior.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, DE2PA said:

60 degrees to 16” in ~48hrs. What could go wrong?

[87storms]

22 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

Often? How about always. I never understand why people still say that stuff ("it's too warm", "it won't stick", etc.) Do you not remember the last time, and the time before that, and the time before that, and the time before that?

A 'cold snow' is about as rare as a white Christmas around here.

I don't know about always lol.  Snow can stick after mild temps (I've definitely been proven wrong on that one), but this isn't just a day or two long warmup.  We're looking at a weeklong stretch of weather that we sometimes don't see in March (like last March, which was chilly overall if I recall correctly).  With that said, I think rates are the biggest issue here during fringe temps.  We don't want light snow after a week of temps in the 50s, but steady/moderate with temps falling into the upper 20s would work, especially at night.

[Its a Breeze]

18 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I don't know about always lol.  Snow can stick after mild temps (I've definitely been proven wrong on that one), but this isn't just a day or two long warmup.  We're looking at a weeklong stretch of weather that we sometimes don't see in March (like last March, which was chilly overall if I recall correctly).  With that said, I think rates are the biggest issue here during fringe temps.  We don't want light snow after a week of temps in the 50s, but steady/moderate with temps falling into the upper 20s would work, especially at night.

As others have mentioned, last January is a perfect example. It was in the 50s and 60s all week prior to the storm, including the low 60s the day before. I ended up with 13.5"

And yeah not always, but it is far more common for it to be mildish before a snow here, than a nice solid cold air mass already in place.

 

Edit to add: Completely agree rates are key. And yes we always waste a bunch, but...that's just to be expected.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

We often get good storms within a couple of days of really warm temperatures.  Most recently that happened last January, but it is pretty common around here.  I'm always hearing people say, "its too warm to snow", or "it won't stick" when we are predicting a coastal storm 2 days after it hits 60 or 70. I could be wrong, but I seem to recall it was pretty warm just a couple days before Jan '16 too.  

It was fairly cold leading into 2016, we had a very minor cold snow a couple days before.  But your point is true.  DC often has had very warm temps just a couple days either side a significant snow.  Upper 50s and 60s for sure. 70s also but they usually were reserved for late Feb and March storms but perhaps that will become more common in January too. 

[brooklynwx99]

this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high

weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

[CAPE]

To be clear, relative warmth a day or 2 ahead of a storm isn't the same as having a storm underway and waiting for cold to arrive before the precip shuts off. We see that a lot and it is a high probability fail. Plenty of places are typically mild leading up to a snowstorm. Look at Denver. The storm early last January was all snow, so the cold was in place first. The issue with the possible storm for the 6-7th(other than it only exists on the GFS) is the cold coming in behind the mild mid-week storm doesn't look very cold on guidance, so then we have one of our other classic fail modes- energetic low will generate its own cold air!

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was fairly cold leading into 2016, we had a very minor cold snow a couple days before.  But your point is true.  DC often has had very warm temps just a couple days either side a significant snow.  Upper 50s and 60s for sure. 70s also but they usually were reserved for late Feb and March storms but perhaps that will become more common in January too. 

I've done a research paper with data going back to 2002 for the Doylestown area specifically in SE PA and there is validity and factual support for this. I would only assume the same holds true for other general areas relatively nearby. My data here shows when we reach 60F we have flakes flying within 5 days. Not all are accumulating....about 75%. Of that 75% about 90% of those are 2" or greater. The date range of studies was Dec 27-Feb 10. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high

weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

It is, but the GFS/GEFS has been doing this for many runs. The timing and position of that vortex needs to be perfect.