January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[AtlanticWx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Is that for all three terminals, or just DCA?

dca

[DarkSharkWX]

5 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

Using snowfall for analogs doesn't really have weight imo, previous snowfall doesn't change the current pattern so even if you had 10" of snow in December, I don't see the weight it would have on the future patterns. Using teleconnections for analogs makes sense though

Yeah, pretty sure DCA had no measurable snow before Jan in 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2021-22, and then things started to ramp up after the start of the New Year

[dallen7908]

54 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

74% of our snow comes after January 15th which is a rough eyeball for our "pattern change"

Has using snowfall in previous months as an analog for the rest of the winter worked before? Genuine question, not trying to come at anyone for their methods but I don't think it's fair to label this winter as a shut out when we still aren't at our climatologically favored period.

On what date should we expect to have received 50% of our annual snowfall.  I've always gone with January 22 but am curious when the actual date is ... based on the date above like it seems likely it is even later than the 22nd. 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Yeah, pretty sure DCA had no measurable snow before Jan in 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2021-22, and then things started to ramp up after the start of the New Year

That ramp up can work out sometimes but the goal posts start to narrow and the kicker stubbed his toe.  nothing we can do about it. 

[DarkSharkWX]

19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is that for all three terminals, or just DCA?

For IAD, ~85% of all snow falls past Jan 1st(3.1" falls in November and December, 17.9" falls in January, February, March, April)
For BWI, ~87% of all snow falls past Jan 1st(2.6" falls in November and December, 16.7 falls in January, February, March)

edit: oh mb you meant after Jan 15; ~72% for IAD and ~74% for BWI

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

For you friend. 

And we know it's a lock to verify too.  Perfect skill score when it comes to predicting the ridge.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

ICON would be somewhat drool worthy if we thread the needle properly. Big 1041hp anchored over SE Canada. Move the S a bit and move the slp east.....meh, lock it in. Wth could possibly go wrong? I mean, we usually would love this look usually in early Jan. Where's that antecedent cold when u need it?

[AlexD1990]

This(potential) storm would be in keeping with the trend of the last 3 years of plans for my birthday being affected by snow(Jan 9th), so it should be a lock

[Ralph Wiggum]

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON would be somewhat drool worthy if we thread the needle properly. Big 1041hp anchored over SE Canada. Move the S a bit and move the slp east.....meh, lock it in. Wth could possibly go wrong? I mean, we usually would love this look usually in early Jan. Where's that antecedent cold when u need it?

That's your WAR at work. Inland track with too much flow from the SE.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That's your WAR at work. Inland track with too much flow from the SE.

Damn WAR.  What is it good for?  Absolutely nothing. 

[stormtracker]

Is the GFS broken?

[Ralph Wiggum]

You know I'm bored when I'm dissecting the ICON at range

I mean cmon, if we get that lobe N of Lake Ontario to phase in. We can do this 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's your WAR at work. Inland track with too much flow from the SE.

Shhhh, we can will this. We excel in these situations. That WAR will keep it from sliding and keep that kicker from shoving it out to sea. We got this!

[George BM]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Is the GFS broken?

Seems to be coming in slowly. Out to HR84 atm.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn WAR.  What is it good for?  Absolutely nothing. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's your WAR at work. Inland track with too much flow from the SE.

Tbh, this transitional period is right on schedule. Small thread the needle window as PAC transitions. Still optimistic we get to a good place by mid month.

Eta: at least we are seeing  beyond the closed blinds

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Is the GFS broken?

You new to this? Been broken for years.

[snowfan]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Wasn't much of anything wintry in 2014-15 prior to mid Feb iirc. Classic back loaded winter.

Emphasis on classic because that’s our climo and is what we do the majority of the time. Roughly 15% of BWIs 10”+ snow months occur prior to January. In other words, no need to full on panic yet

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You new to this? Been broken for years.

It's having trouble rendering the huge ass storm coming on the 7th-8th

[Ralph Wiggum]

CMC is similar but missing that antcedent cold. Could see a rain to snow type deal. All conjuncture tho at this point. Should watch it

[Ralph Wiggum]

Liking how guidance is moving the WAR and feeding a ridge up top of us. Let's thread this needle boys!

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Could see a rain to snow type deal.

Those always workout for us! At least it shows a possible way to win, if you try to thread the needle enough times eventually it will happen. 

[aldie 22]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn WAR.  What is it good for?  Absolutely nothing. 

Remember when you weren't considered old?

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Those always workout for us! At least it shows a possible way to win, if you try to thread the needle enough times eventually it will happen. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Remember when you weren't considered old?

Back when the earth was young and it snowed in DC?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Liking how guidance is moving the WAR and feeding a ridge up top of us. Let's thread this needle boys!

6z GFS was absolutely a thread the needle deal, with that vorticity lobe rotating down over the southern tip of Hudson Bay at exactly the right time to enhance HP in a good spot. There is zero blocking and the antithesis of a 50-50 low, so any HP to the north will be on the move.

[Ralph Wiggum]

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z GFS was absolutely a thread the needle deal, with that vorticity lobe rotating down over the southern tip of Hudson Bay at exactly the right time to enhance HP in a good spot. There is zero blocking and the antithesis of a 50-50 low, so any HP to the north will be on the move.

This is kind of how we got the storm last January, no? A thread the needle type of situation with little Antecedent cold air? It was in the 60s the day before. Seems to me a lot of our recent events have arisen from similar such situations...

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Remember when you weren't considered old?

No