BristowWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 It did look good. Most everyone was on board with that idea except Doug K. We can’t really fault DT although he does tend to hype early and often. If we go snowless in Dec few here called that 2-3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Let’s do it. That's GB 16. I was livin' in Woodbridge VA then, and I got 27 inches of white paradise right in my backyard. Spent four days of pure BLISS diggin' all that snow! Then my neighbors came up saying they wanted me to shovel their walks, using Jebman Standards lol. Jebman Standards involve digging 8 feet around all cars on the property, removing all the snow from the full width of the sidewalks and driveways, and piling it up as high as possible. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 23 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Let’s do it. The best part of that run is that BOS got completely screwed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, Jebman said: That's GB 16. I was livin' in Woodbridge VA then, and I got 27 inches of white paradise right in my backyard. Spent four days of pure BLISS diggin' all that snow! Then my neighbors came up saying they wanted me to shovel their walks, using Jebman Standards lol. Jebman Standards involve digging 8 feet around all cars on the property, removing all the snow from the full width of the sidewalks and driveways, and piling it up as high as possible. How was the jebwalk after that particular storm...compared to past storms? Was it a top-10, top-5, top-3, or #1 Jebwalk event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Ah I see we've resorted to posting up "back in my day" snowmaps. The situation must really be that dire. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: There are other issues like the warm ocean temps, that I fell are playing a part in this. Also like CAPE just said, this being a Nina year presents its own set of issues as well. Oh, definitely agree with that as well. I've been retired a long time now and don't have as much experience with advanced tools in the field they have now but, will say the Greenland block -NAO hook-up is more prominent in recent years. The cause is not completely understood, mainly speculation. I just thought Cape pointed out something that actually makes sense. Why are the 50-50 lows not developing or holding like it seems they should ? Could be SST'S in that area ,QBO etc.. who knows for sure. But, we do know, there's cause and effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Oh, definitely agree with that as well. I've been retired a long time now and don't have as much experience with advanced tools in the field they have now but, will say the Greenland block -NAO hook-up is more prominent in recent years. The cause is not completely understood, mainly speculation. I just thought Cape pointed out something that actually makes sense. Why are the 50-50 lows not developing or holding like it seems they should ? Could be SST'S in that area ,QBO etc.. who knows for sure. But, we do know, there's cause and effect. The answer I believe is more complex and includes multiple different aspects. I do believe, so far this season, SST's are playing more of a part in the issues up north with trying to get an established block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Can the storm trend so far west it ends back up over the coast? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: The answer I believe is more complex and includes multiple different aspects. I do believe, so far this season, SST's are playing more of a part in the issues up north with trying to get an established block. My belief it is mainly the SST'S in the 50-50 area irt the problem regarding it. I wholeheartedly agree alot of complexities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 hours ago, DE2PA said: Would almost rather sacrifice the cold for Christmas to have it during a better climo period. We never sacrifice cold here...never. Sacrilege. Only bunnies man.....we only sacrifice the bunnies. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: My belief it is mainly the SST'S in the 50-50 area irt the problem regarding it. I wholeheartedly agree alot of complexities. Admittedly I thought those warm SSTs in that area would help create more storminess and maintain 50-50 lows there better, but it may actually be causing more ridging forcing the 50-50 lows out quicker. Also the west coast ridge being too far west doesn’t help either. I don’t think we’ve ever really locked in a +pna all this time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We never sacrifice cold here...never. Sacrilege. Only bunnies man.....we only sacrifice the bunnies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 It’s that time again. Let’s see what happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 6 hours ago, HighStakes said: Just a few days ago the EPO was forecasted to be around neutral to slightly positive but now it's forecasted to go strongly positive. Tough to get any arctic air in the U.S. despite the other indices being favorable. Good news is that it look short lived as EPO should head down after right the new year. Since when do we need cross poler Siberian air to get snow? h5 from some of our notable snowstorms. A -epo is actually pretty rare during a big snowstorm here because a ridge over AK often puts the trough too far west and a storm would cut unless there was a VERY negative NAO. The more typical progression to snow here was a -epo a week or so before the storm that helped inject cold into North America. Then the epo ridge progresses to the pna space with a trough near AK and the cold source cuts off. But the storm that would then come would take advantage of the left over domestic cold. The cold didn’t get immediately routed and annihilated by warm pac puke in like 7 seconds like it seems to now! If we need a direct flow from Siberia to get snow we’re in deep deep bleep because that’s actually NOT a good pattern for big snowstorms historically. 90% of our big snows did not happen during cross polar flow but used domestic air masses that were just cold enough. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We never sacrifice cold here...never. Sacrilege. Only bunnies man.....we only sacrifice the bunnies. @Bob Chill sacrifices cute bunnies and @stormtracker kicks puppies when things go awry, as I recall! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since when do we need cross poler Siberian air to get snow? h5 from some of our notable snowstorms. A -epo is actually pretty rare during a big snowstorm here because a ridge over AK often puts the trough too far west and a storm would cut unless there was a VERY negative NAO. The more typical progression to snow here was a -epo a week or so before the storm that helped inject cold into North America. Then the epo ridge progresses to the pna space with a trough near AK and the cold source cuts off. But the storm that would then come would take advantage of the left over domestic cold. The cold didn’t get immediately routed and annihilated by warm pac puke in like 7 seconds like it seems to now! If we need a direct flow from Siberia to get snow we’re in deep deep bleep because that’s actually NOT a good pattern for big snowstorms historically. 90% of our big snows did not happen during cross polar flow but used domestic air masses that were just cold enough. Thank you, very interesting! How do you remember all this stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since when do we need cross poler Siberian air to get snow? Since a few years ago apparently. And it seems likely to remain that way going forward does it not? So now we either hunt perfection, or else leave the hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Ooof models run today were uuugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 GFS brings back an initial burst of snow to start for the 81/west crew. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: GFS brings back an initial burst of snow to start for the 81/west crew. #ganggang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 26 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: @Bob Chill sacrifices cute bunnies and @stormtracker kicks puppies when things go awry, as I recall! Well, a bad week for cute bunnies and puppies anyway you slice it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 CMC with the head fake 1036 hp just n of VT appears out of nowhere. Just when I think I'm out.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, a bad week for cute bunnies and puppies anyway you slice it. Mmmmm, sliced bunnies and puppies... Tasty! Oh wait, that's pretty f'ed up, sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC with the head fake 1036 hp just n of VT appears out of nowhere. Just when I think I'm out.... Doing everything they can to pull us back in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, mappy said: Ooof models run today were uuugly They most certainly were. But you know what? Just got the Christmas tree this afternoon so regardless it feels more like the Holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC with the head fake Just now, Terpeast said: Doing everything they can to pull us back in Don't look into the trap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Hi 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC with the head fake 1036 hp just n of VT appears out of nowhere. Just when I think I'm out.... Oh for crying out loud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 That’s a sick upslope signal on the GFS for the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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