January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[cbmclean]

Looking at the GEPS and the GEFS together with the end of the GFS I am noting a significant trend of positive anomalies centered around Hudson Bay, and weaker but still widespread negative anomalies around the Aleutians.  Not horrible.  Generally kind of ridge-ish in the west.  Better than pac puke.  GEFS example below.

[cbmclean]

25 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Seeing better confluence for this time period showing up. We just had the GFS fantasy run, CMC looks better as well. Probably not enough confluence/cold air but trending right direction at least?



.

For one who is trying to learn, would you mind pointing out the features which indicate confluence?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Seeing better confluence for this time period showing up. We just had the GFS fantasy run, CMC looks better as well. Probably not enough confluence/cold air but trending right direction at least?



.

Not sure if this means much coming from me, but what I'm learning is...Not a good idea to looking for any specific "trends" on a specific threat this far out. Way, way too early for discreet threats...For those, the 5 day rule really is better (see last week, lol).

[George BM]

Just me being Curious George but does anyone know what the current GLAAM state is? I'm guessing that it must be higher(more +) than one would normally expect given the Nino-like pattern in a low-end moderate Nina?

[nj2va]

6 hours ago, cbmclean said:

For one who is trying to learn, would you mind pointing out the features which indicate confluence?

That’s not a classic confluence look (as mentioned by Heisy with it ‘trending’ towards  it) but notice the tightly spaced isobar lines over New England/off the New England coast?  That’s typically a sign of confluence. 

In our classic mid Atlantic storms, you’d see those isobars stacked tight together basically running due east off the coast of New England. 

It basically helps to lock in / reinforce cold air.  It’s why our big MA events feature 50/50 lows that lock in the confluence.

Someone smarter than me can probably explain it better ha.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS…for the fantasy land threat(s) at about day 13….but it is the only period to watch the next 2 weeks.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That’s not a classic confluence look (as mentioned by Heisy with it ‘trending’ towards  it) but notice the tightly spaced isobar lines over New England/off the New England coast?  That’s typically a sign of confluence. 

In our classic mid Atlantic storms, you’d see those isobars stacked tight together basically running due east off the coast of New England. 

It basically helps to lock in / reinforce cold air.  It’s why our big MA events feature 50/50 lows that lock in the confluence.

Someone smarter than me can probably explain it better ha.

I will add a little to what you said, which was good!

Confluence(and convergence) in the upper levels increases pressure at the surface. In the case of a NAO block, the presence of a somewhat stationary low near the 50-50 position maintains the confluence (and thus HP at the surface) in a very favorable position to our N/NW over Canada. We can still get transient confluence as a vortex is moving across to our north, but timing is more critical as surface HP will not be locked in place.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS…for the fantasy land threat(s) at about day 13….but it is the only period to watch the next 2 weeks.

I was just looking at this period on both the GEFS and EPS. Way out there so the indications are more subtle, but there appears to be a couple chances as the boundary works southward and we chill down, with a few waves moving along in the flow. First chance, as has been discussed quite a bit, is the 8-9th, and then again around the 12th. The latter may end up being the better set-up for something wintry.

[Terpeast]

All ens models show the PNA flipping from - to + around the 7th, and it looks to have some staying power. Atlantic not quite where we want it to be, though. 

[87storms]

That fantasyland Jan 6+ system on the GFS is a nice storm track, that's for sure.

[CentralVaNATS]

That fantasyland Jan 6+ system on the GFS is a nice storm track, that's for sure.

By the time it gets within 3 days time it will be over MI once again and give Buffalo another 50" off Erie.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

By the time it gets within 3 days time it will be over MI once again and give Buffalo another 50" off Erie.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

 

Mid-Jan to late Feb is our wheelhouse.  It should be no worse than an Apps Runner that snows for 15 minutes on 45 degree ground along the i95 corridor before changing over to pellets.

[AtlanticWx]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

All ens models show the PNA flipping from - to + around the 7th, and it looks to have some staying power. Atlantic not quite where we want it to be, though. 

honestly, we need a good pacific way more than we need a good atlantic

jan 2022 was a prime example of great pacific but shit atlantic 

[Terpeast]

Just now, AtlanticWx said:

honestly, we need a good pacific way more than we need a good atlantic

jan 2022 was a prime example of great pacific but shit atlantic 

That’s why I’m a lot more hopeful for Jan-Feb. I also heard the same for the 2013-15 winters 

[AtlanticWx]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That’s why I’m a lot more hopeful for Jan-Feb. I also heard the same for the 2013-15 winters 

and honestly there are a lot of different pieces of energy rounding the ridge and getting ejected here, something has to score around here

definitely feeling bullish about janaury

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

All ens models show the PNA flipping from - to + around the 7th, and it looks to have some staying power. Atlantic not quite where we want it to be, though. 

Isn't that somewhat similar to what happened last year when the pacific was good but the Atlantic was not? If so are we going to need to worry about late forming miller Bs again or will there be more blocking? 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Isn't that somewhat similar to what happened last year when the pacific was good but the Atlantic was not? If so are we going to need to worry about late forming miller Bs again or will there be more blocking? 

The AO/NAO doesn't look to go hostile as the pattern improves out west. Probably stay around neutral for a time. There are some indications in the longer term of another -NAO episode. As for late developing Miller B type events, they can happen even with a block.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

honestly, we need a good pacific way more than we need a good atlantic

jan 2022 was a prime example of great pacific but shit atlantic 

I always think of it like we almost always require a non hostile pac to snow in any fashion except for the coldest climo weeks when "domestic air" is just cold enough. We almost always require a good Atlantic for a big storm.  Reality lies in between most of the time and it gets real muddy as to what really made it happen when it does accidentally snow once in a while

[BristowWx]

10 hours ago, cbmclean said:

For one who is trying to learn, would you mind pointing out the features which indicate confluence?

Hr 282 and hr 360 on 12z op GFS are great examples of what happens with out a 50/50 low.  We get a result that begins with a "c"

[psuhoffman]

I have to admit I was extremely busy and preoccupied much of last winter and what time I did devote to snow was mostly predicated on my ski trips. But…I seem to have a VERY different perception of last winter than many. I’m seeing a lot of posts where people seek to be rooting for a repeat of last year. Here at least last year was one of the worst snowfall winters of the 18 I’ve spent in the area.  Finished 18” below avg and 12” below median.  I’m definitely NOT rooting for anything that resembles last year. I think this winter will resemble last year, but that’s a negative to me. 

[WesternFringe]

23 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Off the top of my head I think the non Nino years with less than 1” were 1949-50, 54-55, 58-59, 75-76, 80-81, 84-85, 2001-02, 16-17, 19-20 

So one in the 40s, two in the 50s, none in the 60s, one in the 70s, two in the 80s, none in the 90s, one in the 2000s, and two in the teens.  Seems like a pretty consistent pattern.

[North Balti Zen]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have to admit I was extremely busy and preoccupied much of last winter and what time I did devote to snow was mostly predicated on my ski trips. But…I seem to have a VERY different perception of last winter than many. I’m seeing a lot of posts where people seek to be rooting for a repeat of last year. Here at least last year was one of the worst snowfall winters of the 18 I’ve spent in the area.  Finished 18” below avg and 12” below median.  I’m definitely NOT rooting for anything that resembles last year. I think this winter will resemble last year, but that’s a negative to me. 

That is because much of the crew south and around 70 cashed in really nicely in that early January snowfall and our area got completely hosed.

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have to admit I was extremely busy and preoccupied much of last winter and what time I did devote to snow was mostly predicated on my ski trips. But…I seem to have a VERY different perception of last winter than many. I’m seeing a lot of posts where people seek to be rooting for a repeat of last year. Here at least last year was one of the worst snowfall winters of the 18 I’ve spent in the area.  Finished 18” below avg and 12” below median.  I’m definitely NOT rooting for anything that resembles last year. I think this winter will resemble last year, but that’s a negative to me. 

I had 28.5” last year which was a few inches above climo for here (Augusta County).  Perspective is paramount, for sure.

[SnowGoose69]

34 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Hr 282 and hr 360 on 12z op GFS are great examples of what happens with out a 50/50 low.  We get a result that begins with a "c"

The idea of the -PNA though on the Op run is really an outlier to all the ensembles though...I still think something may happen in that period but more likely in SNE

[cbmclean]

36 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Hr 282 and hr 360 on 12z op GFS are great examples of what happens with out a 50/50 low.  We get a result that begins with a "c"

Celebration?

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have to admit I was extremely busy and preoccupied much of last winter and what time I did devote to snow was mostly predicated on my ski trips. But…I seem to have a VERY different perception of last winter than many. I’m seeing a lot of posts where people seek to be rooting for a repeat of last year. Here at least last year was one of the worst snowfall winters of the 18 I’ve spent in the area.  Finished 18” below avg and 12” below median.  I’m definitely NOT rooting for anything that resembles last year. I think this winter will resemble last year, but that’s a negative to me. 

At least here in Frederick, last January is looking like 2009/10 compared to how we've started this season.

[WesternFringe]

This is the link for my DC annual snowfall statistical analysis since 1888.  

Snowfall is barely decreasing when measured from 1880s (-.07” per year) and 1960s (-.03” per year).

Snowfall is up (+0.17” per year) when measured from the 1980s.

Most of the variability is random and statistical noise (96+%).

Doom and gloom, in my opinion, is just human error (recency effect) when interpreting recent winters emotionally.

These were my conclusions from the link above if you don’t want to view the link:

Conclusions:

Annual snowfall In DC has declined on average 0.07" per year since 1888.

Annual snowfall In DC has declined on average 0.03" per year since 1969.

Annual snowfall In DC has increased on average 0.17" per year since 1984.

The vast majority of the variability (94% up to 99.8%, depending on the time period observed) from year to year is statistical noise, or random, and not due to the passage of time.

[TSG]

@psuhoffman

31 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I had 28.5” last year which was a few inches above climo for here (Augusta County).  Perspective is paramount, for sure.

Agreed, we did really well down this way. Reposting my "end of season" summary from late Feb when we were staring down highs in the 70s & 80s. I think we did get one more marginal event in mid March that the N/NW crew did better on.

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A+ January in Charlottesville, we averaged 3.0F below average from Jan 3rd-31st (Jan 1/2 in the 60s) and depending on what measurements you look at it was somewhere in the top 5-10 range for Jan snowfall since 1920.  I measured ~18.5" at my place. Hadn't seen an epic pattern like that since living in DC in 2015. We also got REALLY lucky with the mid-month storm. Never got above freezing here during that event so we maintained the snowpack for about 4 weeks straight. Would've been nice to have another 1-2 storms to track, but I broke my thumb skiing late Jan so the season ended for me then and there... bring on severe season!

Overall winter rating: B, short but sweet for western-central VA

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That mid-month storm had a huge effect on how the entire month felt. With the way the low evolved as it came up the coast, West-Central VA never got blasted with the warm ocean air. We pretty much just dryslotted and stayed in the low 30s before the later temp crash, while areas 100 miles to the north hit 45 under moderate rain and lost most, if not all, of their snowpack.

[WxUSAF]

A shift to a more favorable longwave pattern remains steady around the 7th/8th. Not much else worth looking at IMO before this weekend assuming that doesn’t change. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A shift to a more favorable longwave pattern remains steady around the 7th/8th. Not much else worth looking at IMO before this weekend assuming that doesn’t change. 

Also…by eye, it looks like the AO flips negative even sooner on the GEFS. Around the 4th.