Ji Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 PS: ya better hope I get at least 1.5” in the next 10 days because the results for DC in years I don’t have at least 2” heading into January are even uglier!!! Like shut the blinds ugly. Dosent matter. All we need is one storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Very good point! I think I separate this into 2 categories for me. Hunting for individual snowfall events and seasonal. If we get a 3-6” snow in February in that moment I’ll enjoy it and have a great time and be happy. But if the season ends with 8” at DCA and 25” here, it’s a fail! Especially considering the current situation. We’re in our worst snow drought ever! I’m not “hunting” for just another “well at least it wasn’t 2020” winter. I’m hunting for a season that breaks us out of this malaise. A legit good snowfall season. Or to quantify it…at the end of the last 3 winters we could say “we’re in the least snowy 4 year, 5 year, 6 year stretch in history”. I’m looking for a season to end that malarkey. And I think DC needs about 18” this winter for us not to say “it’s been the worst 7 year stretch ever” when it’s over. My data is to show its very unlikely that happens and we’re probably ending get another year still in our worst snow drought in recorded history. This snow drought is worse than the 1970s? I mean, eyeballing those numbers for BWI...looks almost as bad, lol Eta: The BWI numbers between 70-71' and 76-77' are as follows: 13.0, 14.0, 1.2, 17.1, 12.2, 11.5, 11.1 Total: 80.1 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Marked improvement in the advertised h5 pattern towards the end of the 0z GEFS, especially out west. Hopefully the reshuffle/mild period lasts only about a week. Definite retrograding of the AK vortex. Lets hope this look continues to move forward in time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Definite retrograding of the AK vortex. Lets hope this look continues to move forward in time. Anyone with access to the long range EPS, is it showing similar hope, or is it to depressing to even mention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Very good point! I think I separate this into 2 categories for me. Hunting for individual snowfall events and seasonal. If we get a 3-6” snow in February in that moment I’ll enjoy it and have a great time and be happy. But if the season ends with 8” at DCA and 25” here, it’s a fail! Especially considering the current situation. We’re in our worst snow drought ever! I’m not “hunting” for just another “well at least it wasn’t 2020” winter. I’m hunting for a season that breaks us out of this malaise. A legit good snowfall season. Or to quantify it…at the end of the last 3 winters we could say “we’re in the least snowy 4 year, 5 year, 6 year stretch in history”. I’m looking for a season to end that malarkey. And I think DC needs about 18” this winter for us not to say “it’s been the worst 7 year stretch ever” when it’s over. My data is to show its very unlikely that happens and we’re probably ending yet another year still in our worst snow drought in recorded history. Yeah, I think we're looking for different things with different expectations. Mine are pretty low to begin with for this season, so if we get a couple of 2-4ers/3-6ers, I see it as a "this winter met expectations" sort of thing. For a big winter to break us out of the bad streak, like the kind of winter you want, I think we look to next year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 51 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Interesting you mention this. I take it you mean that this Arctic blast isn't something that will be ushering in a week or so of good cold but that it kind of retreats pretty quickly (like shortly after this Christmas weekend). Why I said it's interesting is because it's not just here, but even those areas out in the midwest that will be even colder than us, they look to warm up soon after as well at about the same time as us. This airmass is legit. No doubt there but it only offers one chance behind the front and it's a weak NS wave with minimal upside as of now. After that it all whooshes right out. Loop the gfs 850 temp/wind panels. Confluence and/or blocking can give us long duration cold because highs slide more W-E north of us. Surface and mid level flow consistently has a northerly component. Keeps windows open much longer. Which provides more chances... which we always need lots of.... This blocking period did not provide that at all. Early season climo lanes won pretty easily. In Jan, I prefer flatter flow in the east. I don't care for tall pna ridges and deep eastern troughs. Let highs slide by W-E north of us and lows do the same south of us. Not a big storm recipe but an easy one lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Mentioned 2 weeks ago we didnt want a polar vortex blast overwhelming the pattern....that we wanted it to slowly settle in the central US and bleed east, not plowing thru. Well, here we are. Cool to see the temp drops but this catalyst is now going to reset the pattern and after it pulls back into the HL blinds are closing for a period. There's light at the end of the tunnel but we have to patiently trudge thru the PAC Puke to get there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Anyone with access to the long range EPS, is it showing similar hope, or is it to depressing to even mention? It's heading in the same direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I think we're looking for different things with different expectations. Mine are pretty low to begin with for this season, so if we get a couple of 2-4ers/3-6ers, I see it as a "this winter met expectations" sort of thing. For a big winter to break us out of the bad streak, like the kind of winter you want, I think we look to next year. I agree wrt expectations. I didnt expect this to be a good year. But on the other hand I am always open to being pleasantly surprised. We wouldnt have necessarily expected a good year heading into 1996 or 2014 and even 2006 wasn’t bad at all by Nina standards. But the data is saying the hope for one of those pleasant surprises is fading away. They all had tipped their cap by now. What we’re left with is what we expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Mentioned 2 weeks ago we didnt want a polar vortex blast overwhelming the pattern....that we wanted it to slowly settle in the central US and bleed east, not plowing thru. Well, here we are. Cool to see the temp drops but this catalyst is now going to reset the pattern and after it pulls back into the HL blinds are closing for a period. There's light at the end of the tunnel but we have to patiently trudge thru the PAC Puke to get there. As I’m fixing some outside lights this morning…I wouldn’t say it’s been “cool” to see the temp drops. Agree with the rest though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: I agree wrt expectations. I didnt expect this to be a good year. But on the other hand I am always open to being pleasantly surprised. We wouldnt have necessarily expected a good year heading into 1996 or 2014 and even 2006 wasn’t bad at all by Nina standards. But the data is saying the hope for one of those pleasant surprises is fading away. They all had tipped their cap by now. What we’re left with is what we expected. Hey my expectations for this year were low too (I did leave the door cracked open in case the hunga tunga eruption benefited us). My focus has been on next winter to see if that still works. Let's just get this dang triple nina outta here and start with a new deck. Meanwhile the break from tracking won't be such a bad thing for me anyway, lol (although I'd certainly love a surprise!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Thought this was a relevant nugget 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, this is also the first December with an AO reading of -4 or lower to link up with the SE Ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 If it makes anyone feel better the 27th thing is looking better than it ever has! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: If it makes anyone feel better the 27th thing is looking better than it ever has! Alright--get that 1/2" to PSU's house and we won't completely suck this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Trend on the GFS. More alignment. But staying at arm's length from each other. Don't they know it's cuffing season?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: This snow drought is worse than the 1970s? I mean, eyeballing those numbers for BWI...looks almost as bad, lol Eta: The BWI numbers between 70-71' and 76-77' are as follows: 13.0, 14.0, 1.2, 17.1, 12.2, 11.5, 11.1 Total: 80.1 inches There were some real cold winters that lacked precip in that mix. The 60s were crazy snowy too so the 70s comparison may seem similar on the lot but under the hood looked quite different. We don't have many dry winters around here anymore either. Especially compared to some of the 70s winters. Our problem is elsewhere lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thought this was a relevant nugget Interesting that the strong troughs in the east in the bottom pic are not reflected by a strong ridge in the west. How is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thought this was a relevant nugget Also interesting that the WAR doesn't show up on this year. It just appeared when it counted I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 28 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Interesting that the strong troughs in the east in the bottom pic are not reflected by a strong ridge in the west. How is that possible? That is the typical -NAO dipole look. When there are anomalous +heights over the NA, the heights adjacent to it are anomalously low. The oddity is the ridging that has been occurring underneath lately despite that. It is what you would generally expect if the NAO were significantly positive(lower h5 heights over GL). eta: a super -PNA can certainly overwhelm a weaker/east based -NAO, but typically if the NAO is legit negative, SE ridge is suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: This snow drought is worse than the 1970s? I mean, eyeballing those numbers for BWI...looks almost as bad, lol Eta: The BWI numbers between 70-71' and 76-77' are as follows: 13.0, 14.0, 1.2, 17.1, 12.2, 11.5, 11.1 Total: 80.1 inches That was the second worst 6 year period in history. 1972-1977 was 67.1" compared to 63.8" the last 6 years. The worst 7 year period was 71-77 and BWI needs 16.3" this year to avoid that. After this year it starts getting really bad if we don't get a big snow year next year because the worst 7 year periods in history were all bookended by some pretty big snowfall years. I have in the past compared this period to that one in the 70's and said the slight worse numbers this time are probably simply due to worse climo. I actually think the H5 pattern on the whole was worse in that period in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is the typical -NAO dipole look. When there are anomalous +heights over the NA, the heights adjacent to it are anomalously low. The oddity is the ridging that has been occurring underneath lately despite that. It is what you would generally expect if the NAO were significantly positive(lower h5 heights over GL). THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS... we've wasted several blocking periods over the last 5 years because there was still mid latitude ridging despite high latitude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS... we've wasted several blocking periods over the last 5 years because there was still mid latitude ridging despite high latitude blocking. Go on and say it. If that's the case we are absolutely cooked (literally). Would that even get any better in a niño? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS... we've wasted several blocking periods over the last 5 years because there was still mid latitude ridging despite high latitude blocking. If North Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico SSTs are to blame for our blocking periods not working out then that would make perfect sense. Our 2 arguably most productive blocking periods during this stretch were Feb 2021 and March 2018, late enough in the season that the Atlantic and the Gulf at least had some chance to cool down. These blocking episodes in December or into January don't work the same as they used to, and that definitely fragments the winter season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is the typical -NAO dipole look. When there are anomalous +heights over the NA, the heights adjacent to it are anomalously low. The oddity is the ridging that has been occurring underneath lately despite that. It is what you would generally expect if the NAO were significantly positive(lower h5 heights over GL). eta: a super -PNA can certainly overwhelm a weaker/east based -NAO, but typically if the NAO is legit negative, SE ridge is suppressed. I was more referring to the lack of positive anomalies in the western CONUS. Surprised to see that with troughing to the east and the west. ETA: I am referring to the bottom composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Euro and gfs both suggest a dusting-1” early Tuesday. Maybe that can juice up a little? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro and gfs both suggest a dusting-1” early Tuesday. Maybe that can juice up a little? By psu numbers that might save the winter 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I was more referring to the lack of positive anomalies in the western CONUS. Surprised to see that with troughing to the east and the west. That is a multiple year monthly composite mean at h5 for December. There would have to be some amount of ridging in the Western US (during Dec) for at least parts of some of those years. When presented as a multi-year composite, the height anomalies there are less prominent and get 'washed out'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and gfs both suggest a dusting-1” early Tuesday. Maybe that can juice up a little? Still looks like a tough one with that ridge progressing east and that vort lobe tracking right overtop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still looks like a tough one with that ridge progressing east and that vort lobe tracking right overtop. I’m grasping for anything to get on the board lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’m grasping for anything to get on the board lol It's definitely possible for a little something. I would think the further west the better, with it tending to dry up as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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