Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: So you think the unusual nino look will NOT last much or it likely WILL? (Trying to make sue I understood ya correctly) Shouldn't last. It's too far away from Nina climo. My guess is it's some sort of byproduct or aftereffect of the big blocking event. Atmosphere is in flux. Aleutian low won't park and the pac won't stay configured like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Shouldn't last. It's too far away from Nina climo. My guess is it's some sort of byproduct or aftereffect of the big blocking event. Atmosphere is in flux. Aleutian low won't park and the pac won't stay configured like that. the most likely scenario is that we get another favorable period as the Pacific jet retracts and the ULL over AK retrogrades to the Aleutians, would happen around Jan 10th or so. this is a relatively common way to get a nice +PNA/-EPO ridge spike you can start to see that process happen on the EPS here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 9 hours ago, MN Transplant said: While I generally agree with the overall sentiment you are conveying, there is a real chance that DCA may see a record low max on Christmas Eve (current record, 23). This is a very solid cold air shot one month before our peak climo cold. yeah the timing is just about perfect for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 10 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Was thinking this the other day and some Twitter Mets have been posting about it now, but the “relax” period around new years is basically a canonical super El Niño pattern. Pretty odd in the midst of a 3rd year La Niña. As that big AK/NPac trough rotates back west toward the Aleutians and Kamchatka, the PNA and EPO ridge will go back up and we’ll chill back down. Very Nino-like evolution. No pattern has been locking in for very long (clearly…), so I imagine we’ll have opportunities by/after Jan 7-10. does this suggest the Niña is breaking down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 there is a tremendous amount of subsurface warmth near the Dateline, which leads me to believe that we have a good shot at a weak to moderate central based Nino next year... there's also never been four Ninas in a row. I think next year (and certainly 2024-25) is when we finally flip the switch to +ENSO. warm neutral at an absolute minimum next year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The transition to a better longwave pattern does show up towards day 15 on the current ens runs as the AK vortex retrogrades. Latest GEFSx continues with the progression: by the second week in Jan we have a negative EPO/WPO, neutral PNA, and neutral/slightly neg AO/NAO. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: The transition to a better longwave pattern does show up towards day 15 on the current ens runs as the AK vortex retrogrades. Latest GEFSx continues with the progression: by the second week in Jan we have a negative EPO/WPO, neutral PNA, and neutral/slightly neg AO/NAO. Much better look, especially for January. Now let’s hope this isn’t underestimating the WAR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is a tremendous amount of subsurface warmth near the Dateline, which leads me to believe that we have a good shot at a weak to moderate central based Nino next year... there's also never been four Ninas in a row. I think next year (and certainly 2024-25) is when we finally flip the switch to +ENSO. warm neutral at an absolute minimum next year FINALLY! Phew...this nina had a dang extra life! Glad to see it's on it's way out. Now to see if Niños still work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 36 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Much better look, especially for January. Now let’s hope this isn’t underestimating the WAR. Consult @Ralph Wiggum for info. He is the WAR Whisperer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 43 minutes ago, CAPE said: The transition to a better longwave pattern does show up towards day 15 on the current ens runs as the AK vortex retrogrades. Latest GEFSx continues with the progression: by the second week in Jan we have a negative EPO/WPO, neutral PNA, and neutral/slightly neg AO/NAO. Hopefully the EPO can help replenish the cold air scoured out by the Pac Puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Hopefully the EPO can help replenish the cold air scoured out by the Pac Puke. It will but it is going to take time....and of course patience. Pretty confident the early season HL ridging will return....at least that's what history tells us should happen. And with prime climo on our doorstep and peaking in a few weeks, we may time things up for a decent backloaded sort of winter. It certainly is far from over. We also go thru this on the reg....epic patterns produce far less than people expect. It still require timing and of course luck. And with that said, nobody expected the good looks up top to be wall-to-wall from Dec-March. Sometimes the reload period takes longer than people want. Not sure anyone knows how long the coming hostile PAC will last or whether it is going to be transient. A little tracking break is healthy during the holiday season. Enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The transition to a better longwave pattern does show up towards day 15 on the current ens runs as the AK vortex retrogrades. Latest GEFSx continues with the progression: by the second week in Jan we have a negative EPO/WPO, neutral PNA, and neutral/slightly neg AO/NAO. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that PAC look resembles more of a Nino-ish regime with the Aleutian low and weak central pac flat ridge? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I remember the Potomac being frozen over pretty good that January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 hours ago, WeatherShak said: I remember the Potomac being frozen over pretty good that January. Sure hope it happens like this because at least the first 10 days of January are a literal dumpster fire as it looks now. It’s time to start cutting the grass kind of warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but that PAC look resembles more of a Nino-ish regime with the Aleutian low and weak central pac flat ridge? Definitely more Nino like to see an Aleutian low. A persistent ridge in that area is characteristic of a Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 9 hours ago, pazzo83 said: does this suggest the Niña is breaking down? I don’t think so. More that the Niña is not as coupled to the atmospheric pattern right now. That coupling or lack of can be a persistent feature or it can be transient. This Niña is dying but not dead yet, so I’d expect it to exert some influence still but can’t say when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 There's a surface look you don't see all the time in the Caribbean towards Bermuda in January. Tropical westerlies with a big surface low under that huge WAR. Cold core I'm sure but heck, maybe we can get our first Invest during prime winter climo this year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 On 12/20/2022 at 9:24 PM, Terpeast said: I was checking daily temps and precip data for IAD and DCA for the 85-86 winter, which was - and still is - my top analog for this winter. It was very back loaded, and it didn’t really get going until the end of February, when it got most of its snow. It was quite cold wall to wall, but had so little to show for it Dec-Jan. I can only imagine what this forum would have been like in a winter like this. That was the year when all the TV mets promised a white Christmas. December 24 was 58 degrees, but it was supposed to start raining in the evening and then switch to snow, piling up 2 to 4 inches. But whatever primitive Neanderthal forecast models they were using back then were less accurate than flipping a coin. The cold air never arrived and we got zero snow. Bitter disappointment!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 6 hours ago, BristowWx said: Sure hope it happens like this because at least the first 10 days of January are a literal dumpster fire as it looks now. It’s time to start cutting the grass kind of warm. If that verifies then my time here on this forum will be short lived. Going to be taking a dirt nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 icon keeping faint hopes alive early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: icon keeping faint hopes alive early next week When is the next big rain storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Is there a record for latest first flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Whatever the record is, pretty sure it happened in '98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: Whatever the record is, pretty sure it happened in '98 Is there a record for no first flakes at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Euro has absolutely nothing to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Can't check ensembles. Anyone know if anymore hints of AK vortex retrograding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 It’s really a tough pill to swallow flushing the first two weeks of January. By mid Jan we’re eyeballing like 4-6 weeks as time on the clock to realistically score. Disclaimer: I do not like March snow as I’m fully in spring mode by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: It’s really a tough pill to swallow flushing the first two weeks of January. By mid Jan we’re eyeballing like 4-6 weeks as time on the clock to realistically score. Disclaimer: I do not like March snow as I’m fully in spring mode by then. It stinks but it could be worse. If we can get the pattern flip we want by mid-January, I'll happily roll the dice in prime-climo from mid-January through hopefully mid-March. It's disappointing this "epic" pattern was a total bust and we won't manage a White Christmas, but it seems like some of the smartest posters we have here like where we are heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Is there a record for no first flakes at all? Close, but not since records have been kept. I was wrong with '98. The latest was actually in 1906 - May 6th. '97-'98 did tie with '72-'73 with the least amount of snow for a season - "0.1. Basically 2 flakes fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 41 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: Whatever the record is, pretty sure it happened in '98 Most got some snow in Dec 97. Not much but some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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