January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[cbmclean]

No help can be expected from the MJO.  Per the latest CPC briefing the most likely prognosis is convection will ramp up in the Maritime Continent that we all know and love so well.  I'd love to see a time series of the MJO for the last 5 winters.  Probably hasn't spent more than two weeks in phases 1-2 in that entire span.

[HighStakes]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s hard to say where we go from there. I don’t think analogs are as useful as they used to be.  Additionally almost all the top analogs to the current and coming pattern are Nino years. The one Nina that’s close to this wrt pattern progression and where we are heading now was 2005/6.

 The progression has been pretty close this year. Unfortunately if we follow a similar trajectory we didn’t take any advantage of the early blocking this year like that year and then we suffered a long time in January 2006. We did eventually get back to a good pattern in Feb but it underperformed and only yielded the one storm. As good as it was the h5 from Feb 1 on would make you think we got more than one snowfall. 
 

Imagine we almost wasted this look because the one storm we got was barely cold enough. 

On a side note I remember on eastern everyone saying leading up to the storm the pattern wasn’t great and it was a thread the needle setup. It wasn’t cold and so there was a narrow margin on track but i never understood that. The pattern couldn’t have been better. It just wasn’t that cold because we never recovered from the pacific onslaught that obliterated all cold from our side of the northern hemisphere.  
 

Here’s a thought…would that even work again?  If the exact same pattern repeats would that Feb 2006 storm work out because almost all the snow around DC fell with temps between 32-34 degrees. Or would it be a 34-35 degree rain and we would totally waste the same pattern?  

I think that storm still works because the main show was the deform band that cranked for several hours. I would hope that would still enable temps to crash enough. Now the 1st part of that storm might be a different story. That would probably be rain for areas around the cities. 

[DE2PA]

Set up at 500mb looks decent for 26-27th on GFS. Just dry.

 

*Disclaimer, I have no clue what I’m talking about *

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I think that storm still works because the main show was the deform band that cranked for several hours. I would hope that would still enable temps to crash enough. Now the 1st part of that storm might be a different story. That would probably be rain for areas around the cities. 

Agree but then you’re taking a 9” storm in DC and making it a 5-6” storm.  And what if that had been a 3-5” snow from the WAA and the storm never bombed to get the deform going. Then we lose it completely. We’re still bleeding imo. It’s just impossible to know exactly how bad. But back to my main thesis, I don’t think the overall pattern has been that consistently horrible the last 6 years to warrant the results. It’s not been a good period by any means. But I think the atrocious results are a mix of not so good pattern base state AND…ya know. 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But I think the atrocious results are a mix of not so good pattern base state AND…ya know

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree but then you’re taking a 9” storm in DC and making it a 5-6” storm.  And what if that had been a 3-5” snow from the WAA and the storm never bombed to get the deform going. Then we lose it completely. We’re still bleeding imo. It’s just impossible to know exactly how bad. But back to my main thesis, I don’t think the overall pattern has been that consistently horrible the last 6 years to warrant the results. It’s not been a good period by any means. But I think the atrocious results are a mix of not so good pattern base state AND…ya know. 

Dude I'm starting to dread seeing your posts these days...Informative as always but now prophets of doom! It's info-doom...

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Wait... So Voldemort is causing global <shall not be named>? 

[HighStakes]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree but then you’re taking a 9” storm in DC and making it a 5-6” storm.  And what if that had been a 3-5” snow from the WAA and the storm never bombed to get the deform going. Then we lose it completely. We’re still bleeding imo. It’s just impossible to know exactly how bad. But back to my main thesis, I don’t think the overall pattern has been that consistently horrible the last 6 years to warrant the results. It’s not been a good period by any means. But I think the atrocious results are a mix of not so good pattern base state AND…ya know. 

Yeah, I forgot which year but it was a recent winter in the last 5 years where we had 2 or 3 juicy systems that took a perfect track and we rained with every one. Nothing on the front end or back end. Just couldn't tap any cold and they all failed. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Yeah, I forgot which year but it was a recent winter in the last 5 years where we had 2 or 3 juicy systems that took a perfect track and we rained with every one. Nothing on the front end or back end. Just couldn't tap any cold and they all failed. 

Yeah I remember something about that too. It was literally perfect track rainstorms with zero cold air anywhere. Seem to recall it was a situation with a good setup but previous Pac puke had vacated all the cold air. Something like that. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah I remember something about that too. It was literally perfect track rainstorms with zero cold air anywhere. Seem to recall it was a situation with a good setup but previous Pac puke had vacated all the cold air. Something like that. 

Wasn't that just 2020-21? The year the PV went down to frickin' Texas and left us on the warm side while they snowed? Lol

[Ji]

Yeah I remember something about that too. It was literally perfect track rainstorms with zero cold air anywhere. Seem to recall it was a situation with a good setup but previous Pac puke had vacated all the cold air. Something like that. 

I think it was 2017

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wasn't that just 2020-21? The year the PV went down to frickin' Texas and left us on the warm side while they snowed? Lol

Could be now that you mention it. The year that Texas had bitter cold and those awful power outages but none of the cold air really ever moved east toward us. 

[Ji]

I think it was 2017

Psu lost his mind too

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wasn't that just 2020-21? The year the PV went down to frickin' Texas and left us on the warm side while they snowed? Lol

It was 2018-19.  I remember a BobChill post from early January about how sickening it was to see that track lead to a rain storm.

[Ji]

Could be now that you mention it. The year that Texas had bitter cold and those awful power outages but none of the cold air really ever moved east toward us. 

Feb 2021

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah I remember something about that too. It was literally perfect track rainstorms with zero cold air anywhere. Seem to recall it was a situation with a good setup but previous Pac puke had vacated all the cold air. Something like that. 

I think it was 2017

Could have been then, too. So many of those years they seem to blend together! 

[pazzo83]

I mean this "arctic shot" is likely gonna put DC only in the mid-upper teens.  These cold shots have been moderating, at least for the east coast, quite profoundly over the past few years.

[cbmclean]

Actually its probably happened multiple years lately.

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

It was 2018-19.  I remember a BobChill post from early January about how sickening it was to see that track lead to a rain storm.

I think it was 2018/2019 winter also.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Yeah, I forgot which year but it was a recent winter in the last 5 years where we had 2 or 3 juicy systems that took a perfect track and we rained with every one. Nothing on the front end or back end. Just couldn't tap any cold and they all failed. 

Just to drive home the point. This was a previous atrocious period from the 70s.

Look at where the negative anomaly is centered!  We would absolutely torch in that pattern today with a severely negative PNA and positive AO/NAO. Yet by todays climo (it’s using 1991-2020) all that produced was “avg” h5 heights in the east!  Do you have any doubts that today a repeat of that longwave pattern would have reds that would make Satin blush all over the east!  
 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Just to drive home the point. This was a previous atrocious period from the 70s. Look at where the negative anomaly is centered!  We would absolutely torch in that pattern today with a severely negative PNA and positive AO/NAO. Yet by todays climo (it’s using 1991-2020) all that produced was “avg” h5 heights in the east!  Do you have any doubts that today a repeat of that longwave pattern would have reds that would make Satin blush all over the east!  

Forgot the picture.

[pazzo83]

I know the more urbanized parts of the metro (DC/Arlington/Alexandria) are not representative of most folks here, but the warning signs are there.  I mean it basically doesn't get below 20F without some severe shot of Arctic air (like what is coming this weekend).  Frankly without some reinforcing shot of cold air, it struggles to get into the upper 20s.  For the most part, most of the winter (at least over the past few years), DC stays above freezing, even at night.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah I remember something about that too. It was literally perfect track rainstorms with zero cold air anywhere. Seem to recall it was a situation with a good setup but previous Pac puke had vacated all the cold air. Something like that. 

I think it was 2017

It’s been almost every winter lately. I can remember way too many good track but just no cold anywhere storms over the past 6 years. I’m not even sure which he means. Recently there were 2 in January 2020.  3 in January/February 2021. I did good up here BARELY but those should have been snow everywhere given the track and time of year not just at 1000 feet. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Forgot the picture.

Fixed. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just to drive home the point. This was a previous atrocious period from the 70s. Look at where the negative anomaly is centered!  We would absolutely torch in that pattern today with a severely negative PNA and positive AO/NAO. Yet by todays climo (it’s using 1991-2020) all that produced was “avg” h5 heights in the east!  Do you have any doubts that today a repeat of that longwave pattern would have reds that would make Satin blush all over the east!  

Right. And I think this gets back to the point you made once that many of these older analogous that come up are simply not really applicable anymore in today's climate.

[pazzo83]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s been almost every winter lately. I can remember way too many good track but just no cold anywhere storms over the past 6 years. I’m not even sure which he means. Recently there were 2 in January 2020.  3 in January/February 2021. I did good up here BARELY but those should have been snow everywhere given the track and time of year not just at 1000 feet. 

I agree with you wrt the uncertainty given the short timeframe here with respect to inferring causality.  Obviously the climate is warming, but has there been some profound change in that base state since like 2016/2017 or is there some other temporary phenomenon at play.  If this is still happening as we approach the late 2020s (or it's getting worse), then I think we'll have something more concrete to work with.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I agree with you wrt the uncertainty given the short timeframe here with respect to inferring causality.  Obviously the climate is warming, but has there been some profound change in that base state since like 2016/2017 or is there some other temporary phenomenon at play.  If this is still happening as we approach the late 2020s (or it's getting worse), then I think we'll have something more concrete to work with.

I think we've just been in a persistent -ENSO base state. this should change once we head into a Nino state, which should occur next year, definitely the year after

[Ji]

Just to drive home the point. This was a previous atrocious period from the 70s.

Look at where the negative anomaly is centered!  We would absolutely torch in that pattern today with a severely negative PNA and positive AO/NAO. Yet by todays climo (it’s using 1991-2020) all that produced was “avg” h5 heights in the east!  Do you have any doubts that today a repeat of that longwave pattern would have reds that would make Satin blush all over the east!  
 

Man didn't cause this...

[Ji]

Might be 4-6 weeks before our next threat after Dec 27 fails

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

I agree with you wrt the uncertainty given the short timeframe here with respect to inferring causality.  Obviously the climate is warming, but has there been some profound change in that base state since like 2016/2017 or is there some other temporary phenomenon at play.  If this is still happening as we approach the late 2020s (or it's getting worse), then I think we'll have something more concrete to work with.

I agree with @CAPE that our next modoki Nino is a great test case. We underperformed our last Nino. The excuses have some validity. But if we underperform the next one…it’s starts getting harder to ignore the obvious. If we get a modoki next year and DC gets 40” then maybe it’s been more a temporary cycle. I think it’s part both. Maybe 70/30 bad pattern cycle v climate.  This would have been a bad period in any decade given the pac longwave pattern. But I think it’s been made worse. I’m curious myself to see how “muted” our snowfall is once we get a truly good and long term sustained pattern where we can’t make any excuses if it fails to produce prolific snowfall.