January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[eurojosh]

41 minutes ago, frd said:

Unless I am very tired, it appears the GFS may eventually trend to it.  

Also, HM said he feels there is room for things to come together next week.  Thats good enough for me at the present time.  

From HM > " This timeline makes more sense, on a larger scale sense, than the 12/23 threat since that comes with the Siberian express. Not impossible to get favorable trends with this next week. "  >

It'd certainly be more in line with our climo to get winter precip on the back end of a departing HP than on the front end of it - and we sweat the ptype as the warmup follows.

[brooklynwx99]

the wave midweek next week is worth keeping an eye on

we've seen the look out west trend a lot more meridional as well as the blocking over Greenland trend into the Davis Strait, which leads to a farther W, more elongated TPV

obviously thread the needle, but there's nothing else on the horizon and this at least has a shot. we've seen setups much crappier than this produce before

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

obviously thread the needle, but there's nothing else on the horizon and this at least has a shot.

 

Speaking of thread, you should start one. It can't hurt and as you said, nothing else to discuss. I feel good mojo when a red tagger starts one. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Speaking of thread, you should start one. It can't hurt and as you said, nothing else to discuss. I feel good mojo when a red tagger starts one. 

hahaha let's give it a few days. I do feel pretty decent about this one, though. this is the kind of thing that pops up in the medium range

[WxUSAF]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hahaha let's give it a few days. I do feel pretty decent about this one, though. this is the kind of thing that pops up in the medium range

Euro with a weak scraper. Gives cape cod some light snow. Closer to the GGEM than gfs certainly. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO…miss but needs to be watched for middle of next week…

[yoda]

Looks like a few members of 12z EPS are intrigued for next week 

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Ant is invested in the period - always a decent sign.

[WxUSAF]

HM trying to steal @CAPE’s storm…smdh 

[Ji]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

HM trying to steal @CAPE’s storm…smdh 

cape is a resilient  sob...never wanted to let go of it

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

HM trying to steal @CAPE’s storm…smdh 

Isn’t HM talking about the SNE?  

[yoda]

18z NAM has DCA at 10 degrees at 06z Saturday 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

HM trying to steal @CAPE’s storm…smdh 

Not quite as bullish as I was several days ago. Has the look of cold moderating/retreating, and will need some upstream cooperation in order for the wave to not get shunted offshore. The Canadian has had the best evolution and strongest signal on the ens mean, but today it looked weaker/offshore. Still time.

[BristowWx]

47 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z NAM has DCA at 10 degrees at 06z Saturday 

That will seem awesome even with a tiny bit of snow on the shaded areas…a tiny bit…that can’t be impossible 

[CAPE]

This is why I am not really enthused for a winter storm chance around the 28th. As the EPO ridge breaks down, the Aleutian trough morphs into a monstrous TPV and shifts over AK, and the cold pattern rapidly breaks down as Pacific puke takes hold and heights build over the central and eastern US. We will see how long it lasts but right now New Years into the beginning of Jan looks quite mild.

 

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is why I am not really enthused for a winter storm chance around the 28th. As the EPO ridge breaks down, the Aleutian trough morphs into a monstrous TPV and shifts over AK, and the cold pattern rapidly breaks down as Pacific puke takes hold and heights build over the central and eastern US. We will see how long it lasts but right now New Years into the beginning of Jan looks quite mild.

 

Almost the whole planet is warmer than normal

[CAPE]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Almost the whole planet is warmer than normal

Pattern shift. Instead of reds in the HL and blues in the mid lats, it's inverted. If the extended guidance is to be believed, this is a brief reshuffle and then back to a more favorable look by mid Jan.

[aldie 22]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is why I am not really enthused for a winter storm chance around the 28th. As the EPO ridge breaks down, the Aleutian trough morphs into a monstrous TPV and shifts over AK, and the cold pattern rapidly breaks down as Pacific puke takes hold and heights build over the central and eastern US. We will see how long it lasts but right now New Years into the beginning of Jan looks quite mild.

 

Thanks Ralph 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Thanks Ralph 

You can always just ignore it and hope the epic pattern will continue. 

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You can always just ignore it and hope the epic pattern will continue. 

I could but I get lonely sometimes 

[CAPE]

It's good to see the tendency for +Heights continuing over Greenland on the means. Mostly just need to get the Pacific resorted.

[North Balti Zen]

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You can always just ignore it and hope the epic pattern will continue. 

I mean…the epic pattern that hasn’t even yielded a flurry? Ah well. 

[Wonderdog]

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

That will seem awesome even with a tiny bit of snow on the shaded areas…a tiny bit…that can’t be impossible 

Brother,  when was the last time you saw snow on the ground  on Christmas? And I bet that when you went outside,  it was colder than a witch's twitch. You're misremembering the awesomeness. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Brother,  when was the last time you saw snow on the ground  on Christmas? And I bet that when you went outside,  it was colder than a witch's twitch. You're misremembering the awesomeness. 

2009.  Snow was melting fast.  I think it was raining.  If we could get a quarter inch of snow with the arctic air it would be real nice.  Make that happen.  You are a Wonderdog for Christ sake! 

[Terpeast]

I was checking daily temps and precip data for IAD and DCA for the 85-86 winter, which was - and still is - my top analog for this winter. 

It was very back loaded, and it didn’t really get going until the end of February, when it got most of its snow. It was quite cold wall to wall, but had so little to show for it Dec-Jan.

I can only imagine what this forum would have been like in a winter like this. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, yoda said:

18z NAM has DCA at 10 degrees at 06z Saturday 

So kinda like this...lol

 

 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

2009.  Snow was melting fast.  I think it was raining.  If we could get a quarter inch of snow with the arctic air it would be real nice.  Make that happen.  You are a Wonderdog for Christ sake! 

That snow was about two weeks old, if I remember correctly. That doesn’t count as a white Christmas. But for you, I'll see what I can do. We are in an epic pattern after all so we got that going for us.

[RDM]

25 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

That snow was about two weeks old, if I remember correctly. That doesn’t count as a white Christmas. But for you, I'll see what I can do. We are in an epic pattern after all so we got that going for us.

The snow on Christmas in 2009 was right at a week old.  We got nailed on 18 Dec - my birthday (or maybe the 19th - was a long duration event) by the first of the 3 big storms that winter season, with the other two being the back to back storms in Feb.  Was THE best welcome home present ever.  We'd only moved into our home a couple weeks before having just returned from nearly 3 years in Bangkok, which don't get much snow!  

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

This is why I am not really enthused for a winter storm chance around the 28th. As the EPO ridge breaks down, the Aleutian trough morphs into a monstrous TPV and shifts over AK, and the cold pattern rapidly breaks down as Pacific puke takes hold and heights build over the central and eastern US. We will see how long it lasts but right now New Years into the beginning of Jan looks quite mild.

Oof. That is a real "shut the blinds, winter is over" kind of pattern. Really, really hope that is wrong.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Oof. That is a real "shut the blinds, winter is over" kind of pattern. Really, really hope that is wrong.

It’s hard to say where we go from there. I don’t think analogs are as useful as they used to be.  Additionally almost all the top analogs to the current and coming pattern are Nino years. The one Nina that’s close to this wrt pattern progression and where we are heading now was 2005/6.

 The progression has been pretty close this year. Unfortunately if we follow a similar trajectory we didn’t take any advantage of the early blocking this year like that year and then we suffered a long time in January 2006. We did eventually get back to a good pattern in Feb but it underperformed and only yielded the one storm. As good as it was the h5 from Feb 1 on would make you think we got more than one snowfall. 
 

Imagine we almost wasted this look because the one storm we got was barely cold enough. 

On a side note I remember on eastern everyone saying leading up to the storm the pattern wasn’t great and it was a thread the needle setup. It wasn’t cold and so there was a narrow margin on track but i never understood that. The pattern couldn’t have been better. It just wasn’t that cold because we never recovered from the pacific onslaught that obliterated all cold from our side of the northern hemisphere.  
 

Here’s a thought…would that even work again?  If the exact same pattern repeats would that Feb 2006 storm work out because almost all the snow around DC fell with temps between 32-34 degrees. Or would it be a 34-35 degree rain and we would totally waste the same pattern?