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January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco


nj2va
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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Can we ACTUALLY get lucky at HR162 according to the GFS? Light snow developing across western zones. Not getting sucked into this one but merely keeping an eye. 

Looks like a clipper. But someone told me they’d gone extinct in recent years.

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No one look at the Cmc at 204 lol 

Walt drag, my favorite Met, always says you always want the CMC on your side if a storm threat is real. I don’t have it out that far, but H5 did look decent. In general (based off GFS) We need slightly better spacing/separation in SE Canada, stronger S/W will help too. The PAC flow is racing E so it’s going to try to stop anything from developing, but not a horrible look. My fantasy team just got knocked out of finals because of Rodgers TD so I’ll take something to track right now to make my life meaningful haha


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Progressive flow and the position/orientation of the upstream ridge are key factors influencing the ability of the shortwave to gain latitude before heading off the coast. CMC gets it done by having the ridge axis further west at the point the shortwave drops down. Another factor is the position and strength of the northern stream vortex over eastern Canada- it's stronger and digs further south on the Euro/EPS with a more amplified ridge.

 

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"The Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based primarily on operational dynamical guidance including the GEFSv12, CFSv2, ECMWF, JMA, and experimental guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction systems, with additional considerations for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) states, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal climate trends, and the evolution of the pattern from the Week-2 forecast ."

 

From last Friday's CPC forecast.  While pattern chasing should be be looking at the JMA or MME too? 
 

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2 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

"The Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based primarily on operational dynamical guidance including the GEFSv12, CFSv2, ECMWF, JMA, and experimental guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction systems, with additional considerations for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) states, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal climate trends, and the evolution of the pattern from the Week-2 forecast ."

 

From last Friday's CPC forecast.  While pattern chasing should be be looking at the JMA or MME too? 
 

Look at whatever shows what you want.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM has the coastal next week…

Unless I am very tired, it appears the GFS may eventually trend to it.  

Also, HM said he feels there is room for things to come together next week.  Thats good enough for me at the present time.  

From HM > " This timeline makes more sense, on a larger scale sense, than the 12/23 threat since that comes with the Siberian express. Not impossible to get favorable trends with this next week. "  >

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