January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[DarkSharkWX]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends what the expectations are whether it’s worth it. The worst season I’ve had here in 18 years was 14”. Most seasons at least break 20. Median is about 35” and mean is 40. My snow climo is closer to coastal southern New England or NW NJ.  That’s enough for some. 

What year was your lowest?

[jayyy]

WB 18Z GEFS P26 for this Friday’s storm.
P2 for the January 11 storm.
P13 for the January 15 storm….
What could possibly go wrong????
 
 

I’ll take p16 on storm 3 too.


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[jayyy]

Your best shot is most likely Niagra Falls / Buffalo area all you need is a good wind flow over a warm lake and presto you have 70+" an event November to December just bring a good survival kit.

It can snow from late October through April, which is the wild part about that area. I was a freshman at UB the year of the ‘October storm’. I also witnessed it snow around 18” during finals week (the last week of April) one year; a day after it was nearly 60 degrees. The temp swings up that way are pretty wild.


Never saw an event quite like “snownovember” (2014) or last week’s storm during my time up there, but saw plenty of 2-3 footers from LES and some fantastic synoptic snows as well. Most people don’t realize that they do synoptic snowfall well up there too. LES is the larger early season punch as the lakes are much warmer in November - mid January, but once you get into late season (feb into late march when the lake is mostly frozen) they also still cash in on powerful Low Pressure systems as spring and winter air masses collide over the plains and Great Lakes.

They perform well during App runners, and clippers also serve them quite well. They even fail well, because there’s typically a backdoor cold front and an LES chance behind any storm that runs to their WNW so long as the lake isn’t frozen over. Can’t tell you how many times I witnessed rain to heavy snow events during the 5 years I lived in the Buffalo area.

I love it here in the higher elevations of carroll county near the Fredrick cty line - but man, do I miss some of those epic winters up in the Great Lakes too.


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[cbmclean]

Seems like 00z GFS was same as 18z in that after the big cutter I counted three short waves going Off The Shore.

[cbmclean]

0z CMC give a bit of blue over you guys hours 198 -210.  

[cbmclean]

00z GEPS looks ugly at 384.  -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, hints of a Pacific Doom Blob.

[BristowWx]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

00z GEPS looks ugly at 384.  -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, hints of a Pacific Doom Blob.

We might have to wait longer than we thought.

[nw baltimore wx]

It looked like the 6z gfs was trying to do something next weekend, but fizzled.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It looked like the 6z gfs was trying to do something next weekend, but fizzled.

I think that wave is more interesting than this Friday chance. Fresh HP over the top with a wave running to our south. Euro gave us a little mixed precipitation with it overnight. GGEM redevelops it offshore and gives us some snow.

[Terpeast]

Looks like some potential for some upslope in the next week or two. 

Thinking of taking my wife and kid out to WV for some sledding, maybe near Davis WV. 

May try to make it a day trip without staying at a hotel. Any specific locations where we can park and take our sleds to?

We don’t need a huge hill, just a nice little one we can do for a couple hours, and then drive back home. 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like some potential for some upslope in the next week or two. 

Thinking of taking my wife and kid out to WV for some sledding, maybe near Davis WV. 

May try to make it a day trip without staying at a hotel. Any specific locations where we can park and take our sleds to?

We don’t need a huge hill, just a nice little one we can do for a couple hours, and then drive back home. 

An option is Blackwater Falls State Park which offers a sledding hill with ‘magic carpet’ to pull you back up.  It’s $25 for a two hour session and if you go on a weekend, recommend you get tickets ahead of time.  

https://wvstateparks.com/things-to-do/blackwater-falls-sled-run/

[Terpeast]

43 minutes ago, nj2va said:

An option is Blackwater Falls State Park which offers a sledding hill with ‘magic carpet’ to pull you back up.  It’s $25 for a two hour session and if you go on a weekend, recommend you get tickets ahead of time.  

https://wvstateparks.com/things-to-do/blackwater-falls-sled-run/

Nice! Definitely can swing that. I think psu mentioned this recently, too but I forgot the name. 

How far ahead of time? A couple days? Weeks?

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Nice! Definitely can swing that. I think psu mentioned this recently, too but I forgot the name. 

How far ahead of time? A couple days? Weeks?

Weeks. I’ll be out there the weekend of the 28th and the only tickets left for Saturday the 28th were for the 7pm session. I’ve done it 3 times and it’s a blast. It is not your normal sled run…..it’s longggggg and fun. It looks like there are only some 7pm slots left on saturdays in January so you may want to look at February. An alternative would be tubing at Canaan ski area. I’d still buy in advance though.

[87storms]

9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

00z GEPS looks ugly at 384.  -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, hints of a Pacific Doom Blob.

It's ok, this is all preparation for the 30 year anniversary of the March Superstorm.

[Weather Will]

Looking at the WB 6Z CFS extended there looks to be two windows of opportunity with colder air.  The first period is the 7 day period peaking about the 13th.  It then warms up again, and we get another colder shot move in around the 26th lasting until the end of the run in mid February with the peak of the cold centered around the 7 day period ending February 6.

[psuhoffman]

16 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Probably another foot per year. Works for me. Also will be nice when I won't temp spike every time the sun comes out.

 

16 hours ago, dailylurker said:

This is my second year here and Annopoils where I came from has had more snow. Only thing I noticed so far is it being a few degrees colder here. Basically the mud freezes harder lol

Extreme northeast Carroll, near me, has done significantly better than further south in the area the last 5 years or so 

12 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

What year was your lowest?

2020

[psuhoffman]

I see nothing overly interesting. There are some long shot scenarios I suppose but I feel like they are being elevated in interest simply because it’s all we got. I could see one work out, but if I had to wager I’d bet DC gets to Jan 20 with no measurable snow. 

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa no you can’t have that list and no you don’t want it. 

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa no you can’t have that list and no you don’t want it. 

I just want to know what other winters have gotten to Jan 20th without any snow, there can’t be more than like 5. 

[George BM]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I just want to know what other winters have gotten to Jan 20th without any snow, there can’t be more than like 5. 

Off the top of my head, Jan 21, 2007 was the first measurable snow event for DC that season. It went on to actually be okay. The obvious caveat being that it was a Nino winter.

[jayyy]

We might have to wait longer than we thought.

Or… it’ll show a workable pattern again at 0z tonight

The GEFS dropped 40” for the DC - Bal Corridor between now and February 3rd less than 48 hours ago. I don’t trust any model from 384 out, ensemble or otherwise. All of the waffling we’re seeing day to day on long range models indicates a pattern shift is definitely coming. I wouldn’t read much into the specifics until we get closer, as we’ve seen a crazy spread in outcomes over the past few days alone.

Remember, ensembles like the GEFS showed us getting a MECS+ during last weeks outbreak only 7 days out, only to see the storm run 1,000 miles west of here. Hard to say models have a grasp on much of anything, especially in the 384hr timeframe. IMO, models have been struggling pretty hard with how they’re handling the PAC. The difference day to day, even run to run is pretty stark.

[Stormfly]

41 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It's ok, this is all preparation for the 30 year anniversary of the March Superstorm.

And even if such a storm occurs, it will somehow miss us and we wind up with some gusty showers and maybe a clap of thunder.

This dumpster fire is a classic example why you shouldn't set a dumpster on fire as it could have magnesium in it!

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Or… it’ll show a workable pattern again at 0z tonight

The GEFS dropped 40” for the DC - Bal Corridor between now and February 3rd less than 48 hours ago. I don’t trust any model from 384 out, ensemble or otherwise. All of the waffling we’re seeing day to day on long range models indicates a pattern shift is definitely coming. I wouldn’t read much into the specifics until we get closer, as we’ve seen a crazy spread in outcomes over the past few days alone

Certainly.  Just noting the crappy results for that one model on that one run.

[katabatic]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Nice! Definitely can swing that. I think psu mentioned this recently, too but I forgot the name. 

How far ahead of time? A couple days? Weeks?

Another option is Wisp. Quick glance shows availability on the 14h of January. My husband is a lift operator there and even today the area was manageable. By the 14th we will have had some colder weather and while Mother Nature looks stingy AF re: natural snow, it’ll be cold enough to make it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa no you can’t have that list and no you don’t want it. 

Don't even know what you're referring to dude, lol

[Chris78]

Sunday will be alot of radar hallucinations if the GFS and Cmc is correct.

A nice slug of moisture to our west that dies on our door step. 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Or… it’ll show a workable pattern again at 0z tonight

The GEFS dropped 40” for the DC - Bal Corridor between now and February 3rd less than 48 hours ago. I don’t trust any model from 384 out, ensemble or otherwise. All of the waffling we’re seeing day to day on long range models indicates a pattern shift is definitely coming. I wouldn’t read much into the specifics until we get closer, as we’ve seen a crazy spread in outcomes over the past few days alone.

Remember, ensembles like the GEFS showed us getting a MECS+ during last weeks outbreak only 7 days out, only to see the storm run 1,000 miles west of here. Hard to say models have a grasp on much of anything, especially in the 384hr timeframe. IMO, models have been struggling pretty hard with how they’re handling the PAC. The difference day to day, even run to run is pretty stark.

ybe it's an indication of the efficacy of the models.

[Wonderdog]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

ybe it's an indication of the efficacy of the models.

Maybe 

[Heisy]

As others have noted the only hope I see for any kind of event right now is the 13-14th wave. Ensembles sort of like it. This is nothing spectacular because the airmass is borderline and not many ensemble members have hits

12z Canadian has the wave in C US at end of run (though it doesn’t look that great). GFS buries it into the GOM.




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[87storms]

1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

And even if such a storm occurs, it will somehow miss us and we wind up with some gusty showers and maybe a clap of thunder.

This dumpster fire is a classic example why you shouldn't set a dumpster on fire as it could have magnesium in it!

There's no sugarcoating the fact that this a complete dud of a winter so far and less than 2 months until March lol.  I honestly have no idea how ski resorts stay in business anymore.  If it wasn't for the fact that I actually like warmer weather, then I would 100% relocate to a snowier city.  This is the wrong place to live if you need snow every winter, period.

With that said, there's still time to correct things since hitting the average only really takes a couple of moderate production patterns.