Terpeast Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 22 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: tbf the jet retraction that we're rooting for for a good pattern in jan will eventually have the pac jet retract all the way meaning -PNA/SER for atl the beginning of february and probably most of it given niña climo for february Exactly what I’m saying and what I’ve been foreseeing when I posted my outlook. Our window of opportunity for snow is narrowing fast. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Exactly what I’m saying and what I’ve been foreseeing when I posted my outlook. Our window of opportunity for snow is narrowing fast. yeah, tho i think the entire month of january is prob our window bc the 6th-10th threats are thread the needle but could work out just our best hopes are with the 14th onwards a lot of people are discounting march tho which is surprising since doesnt dc average more snow in march than december now? correct me if i'm wrong tho sun angle is the notably big problem in march but we can still score in march enough for a not completely shit winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 25 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Exactly what I’m saying and what I’ve been foreseeing when I posted my outlook. Our window of opportunity for snow is narrowing fast. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 For this Friday thing to have any chance, we need the ULL to dig south of us and develop the coastal there so we can get any scrap of coldish air. GFS is moving the wrong way, but 12z euro wasn’t too far off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: For this Friday thing to have any chance, we need the ULL to dig south of us and develop the coastal there so we can get any scrap of coldish air. GFS is moving the wrong way, but 12z euro wasn’t too far off. If recent history has taught us anything… GFS trending worse + EURO trending better = good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not what I said at all. Nothing about models. Ppl are using Nina analogs to assume February will be punted. I think it's a narrow way to think which is why I wanted to hear from others on this board. I personally think just going with ENSO analogs is lazy, especially since it seems we’ve not seen real atmospheric coupling this season, but I’m just a no-nothing weather layperson, so what I think holds no weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I personally think just going with ENSO analogs is lazy, especially since it seems we’ve not seen real atmospheric coupling this season, but I’m just a no-nothing weather layperson, so what I think holds no weight. Analogs are certainly useful and are the first order seasonal or monthly forecast. The last 2 months have shown 2 trends to me though: 1. Periodic high latitude blocking despite the strat PV 2. Changeable conditions with no pattern locking in for more than 10-15 days. Past events are no guarantee of the future though, so maybe those 2 trends break down, but I wouldn’t bet against it yet. What that means for our snow chances though is that we have to “hit” quickly. I don’t think we’ll get some 4 week long highly favorable pattern. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Exactly what I’m saying and what I’ve been foreseeing when I posted my outlook. Our window of opportunity for snow is narrowing fast. If it’s not going to snow at least it will torch and we get more 60s and 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 It is premature, imo, to give so much weight to reverting back to a nina climo. It is more like "it has to happen at some point, right?" The recent mjo rotation sent it into the cod and then into the warm phases. But, those warm phases did not produce nina warmth, they produced nino warmth. One would have thought we would have seen a classic nina pattern once the mojo was no longer the driver...but not so. I don't claim to know much but going with enso as a lr forecasting tool seems a bit riskier than normal this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Trying for Frederick or Carroll above 800 feet in elevation. How much more snow do you think you will get there?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Just now, ravensrule said: How much more snow do you think you will get there?. That’s what I was wondering, too. I mean, if you’re going to move, might as well move to Vermont or Buffalo. Unless he still has to commute to work, which I think may be the case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: That’s what I was wondering, too. I mean, if you’re going to move, might as well move to Vermont or Buffalo. Unless he still has to commute to work, which I think may be the case. Myself personally I wouldn’t move to get possibly 5-8” more. I guess to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: How much more snow do you think you will get there?. Probably another foot per year. Works for me. Also will be nice when I won't temp spike every time the sun comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, ravensrule said: How much more snow do you think you will get there?. This is my second year here and Annopoils where I came from has had more snow. Only thing I noticed so far is it being a few degrees colder here. Basically the mud freezes harder lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 moving for snow is like moving for a relationship. you'll end up disappointed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Probably another foot per year. Works for me. Also will be nice when I won't temp spike every time the sun comes out. A foot more than Reisterstown?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: moving for snow is like moving for a relationship. you'll end up disappointed EJ will do a lot better over time in his new location. But to really kill it in this new base state a big move is needed. Like northern PA and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: A foot more than Reisterstown?. As an average annual snowfall increase that seems like a stretch from what he has now. Reisterstown looks pretty sweet location on a map at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 That was a very unhappy happy hour run. So close on 3 chances yet so far away. Progressive asf on that run. There's your mid winter Nina look. Let's hope it's an op blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That was a very unhappy happy hour run. So close on 3 chances yet so far away. Progressive asf on that run. There's your mid winter Nina look. Let's hope it's an op blip. Seems the models want to show a nino-ish look at range but then tilt towards nina-ish when it gets closer. Been the trend this winter, and it makes sense. They want to rush the nina out and it’s stubbornly holding on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That was a very unhappy happy hour run. So close on 3 chances yet so far away. Progressive asf on that run. There's your mid winter Nina look. Let's hope it's an op blip. Brutal. I did put down some seed and hay in the back yard today. Ground was soft and muddy. Just gonna pretend spring is right around the corner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Seems the models want to show a nino-ish look at range but then tilt towards nina-ish when it gets closer. Been the trend this winter, and it makes sense. They want to rush the nina out and it’s stubbornly holding on. But does a Nina have a trof in the SE like this run does? Thru the entire 384 hrs? I never saw such a train of waves riding the Gulf Coast and still digging while they head out over FL and the Bahamas. Zero resistance or semblance of a SER. That is not a Nina look in that respect. Still seems to be acting differently than your standard Nina imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: But does a Nina have a trof in the SE like this run does? I never saw such a train of waves riding the Gulf Coast and still digging while they head out over FL and the Bahamas. Zero resistance or semblance of a SER. That is not a Nina look in that respect. Still seems to be acting differently than your standard Nina imo. Yeah, but what matters is how it plays out in real life. The cutter is a great example. The models, especially the GFS had the wave digging deeper south under us as close as 7 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 GEFS disagrees with the op so we breathe a sigh of relief for now. Lots of waffling on the ens and ops lately. Clear signs of some sort of lw pattern shift. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: Yeah, but what matters is how it plays out in real life. The cutter is a great example. The models, especially the GFS had the wave digging deeper south under us as close as 7 days out. But aren't we talking about a pattern as opposed to a discreet threat like that one? We're talking more longwave pattern here, right? The advertised pattern last month did materialize...but as Ralph aptly put it...we coughed up the football, lol But what the ens and sometimes the ops are showing is not nina-like even if single op runs show misses (which shouldn't matter beyond 10 days). Can we really know yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS P26 for this Friday’s storm. P2 for the January 11 storm. P13 for the January 15 storm…. What could possibly go wrong???? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Actually this flip is different from the December cold snap….so hopefully we will get a different result….the trough is retrograding westward. It is not an arctic cold front…WB 18Z GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Actually this flip is different from the December cold snap….so hopefully we will get a different result….the trough is retrograding westward. It is not an arctic cold front…WB 18Z GEFS. Key feature to watch is how the siberian PV progresses from D9 and onward. We want it to move into the aleutians domain for any workable setup. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not what I said at all. Nothing about models. Ppl are using Nina analogs to assume February will be punted. I think it's a narrow way to think which is why I wanted to hear from others on this board. And I was just joking about about how analogs, which are computer models, suck at telling us what our February snow will look like. Therefore, I agree with you to not punt February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 4 hours ago, ravensrule said: How much more snow do you think you will get there?. Depends what the expectations are whether it’s worth it. The worst season I’ve had here in 18 years was 14”. Most seasons at least break 20. Median is about 35” and mean is 40. My snow climo is closer to coastal southern New England or NW NJ. That’s enough for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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