Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yesterday I noted across guidance there were several mid latitude waves in the next 2 weeks with no appreciable frozen precip associated with them anywhere. Maybe some rain/snow mix on the NW periphery. Another thing logged into the journal. I’ve noted this before a lot lately. It seems we need arctic air to get frozen precip south of 40* lately. Problem is that was always rare. Getting snow at 32* in a blah airmass from a good track was always the more common way we snowed. I think eventually we'll get used to the state of things. We may need to just let go of how things used to be (difficult but possible since eventually expectations will be lowered, lol) And like you said, none of this suggests we can't still get bigger snows It's just that the totals in between may become more mediocre. That part is kinda sad at times, but in the New Year I'm tryin' not to get too sad/depressed about weather. Not sure it's worth the energy (I say that but it ain't gonna be easy to let go of some stuff...We've certainly had some fun times!) But again...I think we can still get big snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 @psuhoffman will be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Now THATS a signal. Deep eastern slight neg tilt trof on the means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Pretty surprising to have this substantial of a signal out at D14 for a coastal, as depicted by the GEFS. In the short term, I think our issue with the 6-10th threats simply hinges on how long it will take to flush out the PAC puke, and I can remember a similar thing happening 2 years ago (Jan 1-15th 2021), where it took weeks for things to become less marginal in the East after a longstanding Alaskan low. Hopefully the further we distance ourselves from the recent influx of Pacific air, the more favorable things will become (before the inevitable Feb -PNA fest) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? Hope that isn't the case. Punting all of December and February and the first half of January leaves us with two weeks of prime climo and hail mary's in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Hope that isn't the case. Punting all of December and February and the first half of January leaves us with two weeks of prime climo and hail mary's in March. I wouldn't say December was punted. More like we kept fumbling. The Arctic blast was like a 98 yard run down to the 1 yard line that yielded no points. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Pretty surprising to have this substantial of a signal out at D14 for a coastal, as depicted by the GEFS. In the short term, I think our issue with the 6-10th threats simply hinges on how long it will take to flush out the PAC puke, and I can remember a similar thing happening 2 years ago (Jan 1-15th 2021), where it took weeks for things to become less marginal in the East after a longstanding Alaskan low. Hopefully the further we distance ourselves from the recent influx of Pacific air, the more favorable things will become (before the inevitable Feb -PNA fest) Some signal for a 50/50 low as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? Well that's classic Nina climo for one reason. Not sure why Eric Webber was seeming so sure unless part of his campaign to drive NE snow weenies crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Well that's classic Nina climo for one reason. Not sure why Eric Webber was seeming so sure unless part of his campaign to drive NE snow weenies crazy. He isn't the only one. Seems like alot of folks are banking on the classic Nina progression. I mean Nina history says we will have to work for our chances in Feb. That's always a thing. Just looking for stats that might support this Feb being an anomaly rather than Nina SER norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I wouldn't say December was punted. More like we kept fumbling. The Arctic blast was like a 98 yard run down to the 1 yard line that yielded no points. Well-said....good analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Now THATS a signal. Deep eastern slight neg tilt trof on the means. EPO domain looks nice as well. 50/50 high though. More WAR woes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: EPO domain looks nice as well. 50/50 high though. More WAR woes? pressure maps have a decent signal for a 50/50 low; a 50/50 low simply won't show up on ensembles 15 days out tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 If I’m right about this winter, the second half of January is our best shot at a decent snowfall. We whiff this time and Feb goes +3 with the -pna/SE ridge coming back, best we can hope for is a late Feb early March gift. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 39 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I wouldn't say December was punted. More like we kept fumbling. The Arctic blast was like a 98 yard run down to the 1 yard line that yielded no points. excellent way of describing it. well said, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If I’m right about this winter, the second half of January is our best shot at a decent snowfall. We whiff this time and Feb goes +3 with the -pna/SE ridge coming back, best we can hope for is a late Feb early March gift. You may be right brother. I am sort of leaning(more like hoping for,lol) toward a non typical Nina Feb. . I'm banking that on the MJO. Those SST's should warm enough by then to allow for greater amplitude into the cold phases. Of course, we will start having wave length changes late Month of which will affect one way or the other. The Atlantic is really a thorn still, as we need that 50-50 and those SST's affecting that area may not become favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? Weakening NIna with ENSO neutral favored moving forward into Feb, plus we have seen the atmosphere exhibit Nino tendencies to this point. Mostly overly simplistic 'thinking' from certain twitter weather geeks imo. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Weakening NIna with neutral favored moving forward into Feb, plus we have seen the atmosphere exhibit Nino tendencies to this point. Mostly overly simplistic 'thinking' from certain twitter weather geeks imo. Yeah this does not feel like your typical nina. I mean...the last 4 we had before this one...weren't they all colder on the front end? (Some cold/dry, others like last year cold with some snow around). This one seems a bit unusual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 All anyone remembers about 82-83 is the general mildness interrupted by the 2/11 storm - everyone has forgotten the 6-12 inches on December 12 (after a truly tropical first few days of the month), the additional inch a week later and the 4 inches on 2/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 EPS also has an intriguing look out at Day 14. Takeaway is that all 3 of the major ensembles look to mix things up as we enter the D10-15 period. EPS also moderates temperatures quite well, so after an anomalously warm start to the month, the ensemble mean has the following 10 days closer to +1-3F which isn't all too warm during peak cold climo. The temp distribution with +10-15F across much of Canada definitely reminds me of Jan 2021. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Hope that isn't the case. Punting all of December and February and the first half of January leaves us with two weeks of prime climo and hail mary's in March. It's the new normal. Accept it, or move to a place with better snow climo. I'm doing the latter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's the new normal. Accept it, or move to a place with better snow climo. I'm doing the latter. Where you moving to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Where you moving to? Your best shot is most likely Niagra Falls / Buffalo area all you need is a good wind flow over a warm lake and presto you have 70+" an event November to December just bring a good survival kit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Where you moving to? Way way far away and up real high, to Manchester Md. Just a guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 WB 12Z ensembles…. Hopefully see big improvements by next weekend under Day 15. Patience will be needed before our next window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 17 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Where you moving to? Trying for Frederick or Carroll above 800 feet in elevation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Now THATS a signal. Deep eastern slight neg tilt trof on the means. And it is under 15 days? Lock it in! ETA: fingers crossed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted? Yes, the models that fail at predicting snowfall at 7-10 days away 90%+ of the time make it knowable and 100% certain we will get no snow in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Yes, the models that fail at predicting snowfall at 7-10 days away 90%+ of the time make it knowable and 100% certain we will get no snow in February. Not what I said at all. Nothing about models. Ppl are using Nina analogs to assume February will be punted. I think it's a narrow way to think which is why I wanted to hear from others on this board. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 tbf the jet retraction that we're rooting for for a good pattern in jan will eventually have the pac jet retract all the way meaning -PNA/SER for atl the beginning of february and probably most of it given niña climo for february 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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