WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Digital blue for new years! 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Digital blue for new years! 23’ our year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 8 hours ago, HighStakes said: I ended up with 26-28 inches. Hour after hour of sustained 2-3 inch per hour rates. If memory serves correct most of the snow fell in a 12 hour period between 5:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Early afternoon thundersnow and 2”ph rates and one burst 1” in 12 minutes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 GEFS and EPS just a little different in the LR wrt PNA/NAO: The GEFS have been better in the extended but I will just say this...the sudden flip around mid month the GEFS shows sort of fits a Nina after an ECS. Ive been saying we are going to have small windows sandwiched between reloads and dirtier looks and this period fits the mold....if the GEFS are even right. Jan 96...pattern flip right after and tstorm the next week. Jan 2016 good window then flipped a few days after. Am I suggesting a big storm right before or around mid month? Maybe, since several members have been signaling something 11th-14th. My theory could be inaccurate but I seem to remember in past Ninas we tend to flip PNA after a storm and subsequent melt-off. The GEFS mean just prior to the big flip: Let's not forget shorter term tho....could see flakes as early as Thursday/Friday in spots with another wave right on it's heels. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 So I guess we're not gonna talk about the Euro H5 at 240 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So I guess we're not gonna talk about the Euro H5 at 240 TT only lets us see out to 144 and I'm too cheap to get WB for now. Is it good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So I guess we're not gonna talk about the Euro H5 at 240 WB OZ EURO in fantasy range 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Lot of false hope in December with H5 maps…chance of any meaningful snow the first week of January is de minimus. Maybe by next weekend there will be someone to track inside 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So I guess we're not gonna talk about the Euro H5 at 240 You know how we roll...either 120hr and under or 360+ nothing in-between. Eta: but seriously 240 on the Euro is the 384 on the gfs...an op at its farthest range. Waiting for @CAPE or @WxUSAF to remind everyone use the ens at that range which aren't a bad look either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 25 minutes ago, cbmclean said: TT only lets us see out to 144 and I'm too cheap to get WB for now. Is it good or bad? Never mind I misread that as talking about the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 41 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So I guess we're not gonna talk about the Euro H5 at 240 EPS has several lows entering the TV...maybe a start of some redevelopment near the NC coast Decent signal but as is common in a Nina, need to beware the cutter.....tho the EPS would suggest is getting forced to redevelop somewhere east given the ridging up top I don't hate this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You know how we roll...either 120hr and under or 360+ nothing in-between. Eta: but seriously 240 on the Euro is the 384 on the gfs...an op at its farthest range. Waiting for @CAPE or @WxUSAF to remind everyone use the ens at that range which aren't a bad look either 0z EPS suggests multiple chances between the 10th and 15th. General signals are there but members are all over the place on evolution as expected. For now it seems like the storm mentioned on the op run at 240 is favored to track NW at least initially, then possible coastal development. Around the 15th there appears to be another opportunity with a colder look and a possible coastal storm in a more favorable location. eta- the latter appears to be mixed between something cutting west, some sort of Miller B, or possibly another wave(along the coast) right after on the members. Too far out to get into specifics obv. There are chances with a trend towards colder mid month. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 6z GEFS has a fairly strong coastal signal post 240 given the range: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 What is the gfs doing at 102? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 If only we had some antecedent cold air. Story of my life. But like CAPE and I were discussing, not out of the realm that we get a rain to wet snow situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What is the gfs doing at 102? The ridge amplifying and breaking over the top pulls that vorticity lobe underneath, then the amplifying ridge behind kicks it east and it goes negative in time for some surface development off the coast, but it's a bit too far north for us. Lots going on and the flow is progressive, but it works out for NE this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 That trailing trough is getting more robust, but seems like just more 38F rain for most of us. Maybe mashed potatoes for @psuhoffman and @mappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That trailing trough is getting more robust, but seems like just more 38F rain for most of us. Maybe mashed potatoes for @psuhoffman and @mappy. You're talking around 120 or this thing at 200+? Because um..that looks interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You're talking around 120 or this thing at 200+? Because um..that looks interesting Friday. GGEM amplifies the follow up wave and gives us some digital blue (and green) next weekend. Seems like lots of chances coming up. Marginal cold air, but hopefully “enough” with the right storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You're talking around 120 or this thing at 200+? Because um..that looks interesting It's about to get busy in here for the next few weeks at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You're talking around 120 or this thing at 200+? Because um..that looks interesting GFS op was soooo close. Minor timing issues. Still a good look given the range. Ens has similar so something to monitor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 I echo Ji questioning the new GFS thermal algorithm. How is this all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You know how we roll...either 120hr and under or 360+ nothing in-between. Eta: but seriously 240 on the Euro is the 384 on the gfs...an op at its farthest range. Waiting for @CAPE or @WxUSAF to remind everyone use the ens at that range which aren't a bad look either The Euro at 240 is like the GFS at 240 - a global op at 240. Ensembles are all looking tasty as we get into the middle of the month. Keep that up and we’ll at least have plenty to talk about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 I think it’s the 37 2m temp that is making it green. Maybe the predicted rates aren’t enough to overcome the boundary level. Just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Damn you antecedent crud airmass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Long range GFS could be interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think it’s the 37 2m temp that is making it green. Maybe the predicted rates aren’t enough to overcome the boundary level. Just a thought Waiting for PSU to tell us the new norm for snow in this era are sub 25f 850s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 the more the 7th system continues to amp up the higher rates we'll have and possibly more cold air to drag in for colder 2m temps and colder air aloft? perhaps by 18z we could see some digital blue if trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Waiting for PSU to tell us the new norm for snow in this era are sub 25f 850s 528 is the new 540 in flip-flop nation…which I am wearing today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Waiting for PSU to tell us the new norm for snow in this era are sub 25f 850s Yesterday I noted across guidance there were several mid latitude waves in the next 2 weeks with no appreciable frozen precip associated with them anywhere. Maybe some rain/snow mix on the NW periphery. Another thing logged into the journal. I’ve noted this before a lot lately. It seems we need arctic air to get frozen precip south of 40* lately. Problem is that was always rare. Getting snow at 32* in a blah airmass from a good track was always the more common way we snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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