Weather Will Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 WB Extended GEFS control for the 35 day period, yah, I know but this place has gotten so depressing…and you always must have hope as you get ready to start the New Year! 1 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed, one decent storm would be great… We’ve reached the bargaining stage 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: He’s right. I will follow. There will be no more complaints from this fella. Snow no snow..whatever…I’ll just up my meds. Sorry brother, reverse psychology doesn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’ve reached the bargaining stage We are on the up at least, well most of us are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Lol 40” between Jan 10-Feb 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: We are on the up at least, well most of us are Made something similar last year. I need to find it and repost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB Extended GEFS control for the 35 day period, yah, I know but this place has gotten so depressing…and you always must have hope as you get ready to start the New Year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I think that has a chance. I really do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 We don’t call them clown maps for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 WB 18Z CVSv2 has it below normal 30 day period January 13-February 12. The precip. For the entire period is high….we need some luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB Extended GEFS control for the 35 day period, yah, I know but this place has gotten so depressing…and you always must have hope as you get ready to start the New Year! This says there is a Jan 2016 repeat + another MECS on top of that. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Lol 40” between Jan 10-Feb 2. I feel like NYC did that over approximately that period back in 2011. It was pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Other than the Friday-Sat deal that looks dead for now, it appears the period around the 12th is realistically the next trackable threat. Using the EPS depiction here, but the signal has generally been there across ens guidance. As the trough out west lifts, a shortwave is ejected eastward with a ridge beginning to develop along the west coast. The wave is approaching the 4 corners in this panel and tracks eastward towards the Gulf coast states. Low pressure develops in the mid south then tracks towards the east coast. At h5 +height anomalies develop near Hudson Bay as low pressure is organizing over the southeast. Not ideal, but this general setup used to work well for a moderate winter storm in the MA. Temps are an issue verbatim- still not much cold available during this period as depicted. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 No Fantasy 06 run. We try again tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Looking even further out, there are hints for something around the 15th, with a more favorable longwave pattern established and somewhat colder air available. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, DE2PA said: No Fantasy 06 run. We try again tomorrow Still a signal on the mean though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Looking even further out, there are hints for something around the 15th, with a more favorable longwave pattern established and somewhat colder air available. Sounds like we're in for a snowfest this January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 I could see this winter ending up being rated as a good one. This doesn’t seem to be fitting the Nina mode. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 44 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still a signal on the mean though. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I could see this winter ending up being rated as a good one. This doesn’t seem to be fitting the Nina mode. Not sure if you've put me on ignore or not (I am getting better, btw), but I was gonna say...Is it wrong to suppose that it looks a little more split-flowy (i.e more nino-ish) past next weekend? Or something that doesn't look nina-like, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure if you've put me on ignore or not (I am getting better, btw), but I was gonna say...Is it wrong to suppose that it looks a little more split-flowy (i.e more nino-ish) past next weekend? Or something that doesn't look nina-like, lol It looks solid. Split flow and ready to go for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 10 hours ago, pazzo83 said: I feel like NYC did that over approximately that period back in 2011. It was pretty epic. Happened here in Feb. 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure if you've put me on ignore or not (I am getting better, btw), but I was gonna say...Is it wrong to suppose that it looks a little more split-flowy (i.e more nino-ish) past next weekend? Or something that doesn't look nina-like, lol My only concern with the current look is warm temp anomalies over Canada even with a good h5 look right over us and the SE. Not sure we’ll get our air cold enough to snow even through the end of Jan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, Terpeast said: My only concern with the current look is warm temp anomalies over Canada even with a good h5 look right over us and the SE. Not sure we’ll get our air cold enough to snow even through the end of Jan. Temps do cool some in our source region towards mid month as the Pacific firehose pulls back and the trough finally retrogrades over the Aleutians. If that look is real and holds, we should have more cold available going forward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 +4-8F in Canada is still cold enough for us to snow 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I could see this winter ending up being rated as a good one. This doesn’t seem to be fitting the Nina mode. I'm glad you still have hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 12z GFS somehow manages to get a little something going along the coast despite multiple pieces of vorticity intertwining within a positively tilted trough while an amplified ridge is bearing down right on top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure if you've put me on ignore or not (I am getting better, btw), but I was gonna say...Is it wrong to suppose that it looks a little more split-flowy (i.e more nino-ish) past next weekend? Or something that doesn't look nina-like, lol I’m not the guy to ask. Plenty here that know more than me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS somehow manages to get a little something going along the coast despite multiple pieces of vorticity intertwining within a positively tilted trough while an amplified ridge is bearing down right on top. Man is that it's bias after it's upgrade? Coastal action outta nowhere? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Man is that it's bias after it's upgrade? Coastal action outta nowhere? Lol It's not out of nowhere, but when I looked at the surface depiction after h5 I expected any surface development to be too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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