clueless Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 It’s wasn’t pretty. At least it’s happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 10:34 PM, Chris78 said: We shall see. He had 4 - 10 way west Of Hagerstown. That would be one of the worst seasonal snowfalls on record for KHGR. If we get to the end of January and still no snow then he might have a chance to crow. Looking like we easily get to Mid January without anything. Expand I don’t think they put much effort into those maps once outside the DC metro area and immediate surrounding area. On 12/30/2022 at 11:03 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm done looking up top for good looks. I mean wtf is this and we still torch? Probably not right but cmon already. Expand This has been more common than actually getting a “typical” blocking response the last few years. It seems blocking the first half of the season has lost its mid latitude impact recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 GEFS has a little something at least. Temps marginal verbatim but places up near the PA line towards Ralph world might see something modest based on the mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 11:08 PM, Solution Man said: We suck! Expand Dude, we even suck at being sucky. Bunch of suckers we are, yet we return for more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 11:27 PM, psuhoffman said: This has been more common than actually getting a “typical” blocking response the last few years. It seems blocking the first half of the season has lost its mid latitude impact recently. Expand There is definitely something to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 11:27 PM, CAPE said: GEFS has a little something at least. Temps marginal verbatim but places up near the PA line towards Ralph world might see something modest based on the mean. Expand Chase to Atlantic City? Craps table surrounded by a bunch of weenies gooning over wet mood flakes ftmfw! See y'all at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Just for fun the latest CFS extended run at h5 for the period beyond mid month. Not hating it- looks more Nino than Nina, which continues the general idea we have seen thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 11:11 PM, Clueless said: It’s wasn’t pretty. At least it’s happy hour. Expand Something has to be wrong beyond our comprehension. Or at least mine. Pretty much mine. Even the tiny bit of precip that moves through is rain with 534 line nearby and peak climo. This winter so far is challenging everything I think is correct at h5 to give us a chance. I just don’t get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 11:44 PM, BristowWx said: Something has to be wrong beyond our comprehension. Or at least mine. Pretty much mine. Even the tiny bit of precip that moves through is rain with 534 line nearby and peak climo. This winter so far is challenging everything I think is correct at h5 to give us a chance. I just don’t get it. Expand You don’t get it…or you don’t want to “get it”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 11:51 PM, psuhoffman said: You don’t get it…or you don’t want to “get it”? Expand Both maybe. You laid it out pretty well. I do read all your posts. Base state and all. Maybe the second one…in quotes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 11:40 PM, CAPE said: Just for fun the latest CFS extended run at h5 for the period beyond mid month. Not hating it- looks more Nino than Nina, which continues the general idea we have seen thus far. Expand That's some deep stj moisture coming under that split out West. I'll take my chances, where do I sign? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 No meltdowns for me this year. Snow has treated me like the redskins. I used to cry and be upset all week when they lost. After much abuse...I just became numb. If they win...great. if not...then no big deal. There are other things in life besides cheering for something you have no control of 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 12:04 AM, Ji said: No meltdowns for me this year. Snow has treated me like the redskins. I used to cry and be upset all week when they lost. After much abuse...I just became numb. If they win...great. if not...then no big deal. There are other things in life besides cheering for something you have no control of Expand Wow, you’ve changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 11:44 PM, BristowWx said: Something has to be wrong beyond our comprehension. Or at least mine. Pretty much mine. Even the tiny bit of precip that moves through is rain with 534 line nearby and peak climo. This winter so far is challenging everything I think is correct at h5 to give us a chance. I just don’t get it. Expand You’re looking at ptype in the Op at D+10 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 12:14 AM, Terpeast said: You’re looking at ptype in the Op at D+10 right? Expand Yes yes I am. Not proud of that. Damn happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 12:04 AM, Ji said: No meltdowns for me this year. Snow has treated me like the redskins. I used to cry and be upset all week when they lost. After much abuse...I just became numb. If they win...great. if not...then no big deal. There are other things in life besides cheering for something you have no control of Expand Liar 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 12:26 AM, BristowWx said: Yes yes I am. Not proud of that. Damn happy hour. Expand Well yeah, the weenie in me peeks at those, too. But the met in me knows not to take them too seriously. It’s alright, don’t be too hard on yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 12:27 AM, WxUSAF said: Liar Expand He’s right. I will follow. There will be no more complaints from this fella. Snow no snow..whatever…I’ll just up my meds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Well, at least Canada is reloaded before mid month on the GEFS 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 12:39 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, at least Canada is reloaded before mid month on the GEFS Expand Interesting pic..a giant outstretched left hand of cold temperatures with Greenland being the thumb.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 WB latest extended GEFS… 7 day period ending on the 16th… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Patiently waiting for my 5am 06Z fantasyland run to get us ~ with in 7 days. GFS vs the World (literally) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 WB GEFS extended control goes extreme and brings the cold and snow….honestly, no one knows what is going to happen mid to late January. 3 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 So we’re posting hour 600 control runs now. Ya….that’s how it’s going. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 2:27 AM, psuhoffman said: So we’re posting hour 600 control runs now. Ya….that’s how it’s going. Expand So glad I'm going back to Mexico on the 14th. I feel absolutely no regret. I'm breaking my own rule by traveling during winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/30/2022 at 11:54 PM, BristowWx said: Both maybe. You laid it out pretty well. I do read all your posts. Base state and all. Maybe the second one…in quotes. Expand Before some jump down my throat I will clearly state again that this is definitely a bad unlucky cyclical period (at least we better pray it is). But I really do believe that. Better times are ahead. The issue is how much better. I’ve seen several troubling things over the last 5 years. Like when a sub 1000mb low took a perfect track in late January without it even being a particularly hostile airmass and produced nothing but 38 degree rain. Or when several high latitude blocks linked with mid latitude ridging. DC getting single digit snow in a season I had 50”. That’s unprecedented. Usually in the past if my area does that well DC is closer to 20”. Struggling to even get below freezing at night for very long stretches. I’ve noted that the southern mid Atlantic has decoupled with locations they used to have more correlation wrt snowfall. The bad years have been awful but years that should have been good weren’t that good. Frankly the last really “snowy” cycle was the early 2000s but it failed to produce the same level of above normal anomalies in DC as further north or higher in elevation except for 2003 and 2010. Each time I say hmm and log them away. The log is getting longer then I am comfortable with. But it will snow again, very likely this season at least some. And eventually we will get another 2003/2010/2014 type season. Don’t take my frustration to mean I don’t think it can snow anymore. But I do think years in between the unicorn snowy seasons are becoming increasingly a struggle. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 WB extended GEFS- 7 day temp. departures at Days 10, 20, and 30. Really takes until the 7 day period ending about the 20th for areas along the east coast to go normal/ slightly below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 2:47 AM, Weather Will said: WB extended GEFS- 7 day temp. departures at Days 10, 20, and 30. Really takes until about the 20th for areas along the east coast to go normal/ slightly below normal. Expand Not that I take these LR maps literally, but my -1 January call for DC is likely blown even before the month starts. And I have Feb at +3. I’d love to be wrong, but it’s not looking great. I’m starting to sound like psuhoffman, but we only need one decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 2:53 AM, Terpeast said: Not that I take these LR maps literally, but my -1 January call for DC is likely blown even before the month starts. And I have Feb at +3. I’d love to be wrong, but it’s not looking great. I’m starting to sound like psuhoffman, but we only need one decent storm. Expand Agreed, one decent storm would be great… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/31/2022 at 12:04 AM, Ji said: No meltdowns for me this year. Snow has treated me like the redskins. I used to cry and be upset all week when they lost. After much abuse...I just became numb. If they win...great. if not...then no big deal. There are other things in life besides cheering for something you have no control of Expand Wentz to the rescue. But seriously, the Commanders actually have some talent to build upon. The Wizards, on the other hand, make me want Baltimore to get an expansion team. Re snow...gambler's fallacy says we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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