January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

To comfort those on the ledge...its still extremely likely it snows at some point this winter, even if not very much.  We aren't at the point yet where its likely we get a complete shut out.

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now that too would be the second time in 3 years...have we ever seen 2 raging +AO seasons in such a short span?

The previous raging ++++++AO season was 2019 - 2020, so that is 2 times in four seasons.

[psuhoffman]

13 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Still have not had a plowable snow here since the Blizzard of 2016. So now going on 7 years. I am sure @psuhoffman will be along to tell me how normal that is or perhaps even above average for this area; cool. I am very optimistic though, about a nice chase to upstate NY sometime in January or Feb. Did ALbany last year for a foot. It was so awesome. Highly recommended. 

maybe read some before posting 

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love snow...and I REALLY hope is snows 100" the next nino winter.  But the evil me kinda takes pleasure knowing at least if it is a total fail I get to see the total nuclear meltdown on here.  

You're a mean one, psu

You're heart's a snowless hole

You've got bad stats at every turn

You want to watch the forum burn

Psuuuuuuu-U!

You're a super nina SE ridge and pac puke sandwich...

With +AO saaaauuuuuce!

[Terpeast]

Maybe we should have a separate thread for DCA stats.

Oh wait, we already have one. 

Either way, this conversation is getting kinda boring. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe we should have a separate thread for DCA stats.

Oh wait, we already have one. 

Either way, this conversation is getting kinda boring. 

We should be discussing snow threats…oh wait 

[SnowenOutThere]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We should be discussing snow threats…oh wait 

Don’t worry the CFS got you, lock in January 26th!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Don’t worry the CFS got you, lock in January 26th!

Fringed 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Don’t worry the CFS got you, lock in January 26th!

Epic

[DE2PA]

 

Start the thread..?

[Ji]

Gfs looks alot colder...nice split flow

[CAPE]

6z GFS is a pretty darn good run. Builds ridging into the EPO/WPO space, and wave breaking pinches off vortices sending them southward, while the trough off the west coast spins off pieces of energy eastward underneath.

[Ji]

If I make it to January 10 without 1" of snow the numbers get even uglier.  It's a VERY small list...but most are years that ended with almost no snow at all around DC.  

We have a below average temp month this December ...we had a good pattern. The no snow was a fluke.....its different from other shutout December months

[CAPE]

With a Bermuda high and a low tracking well NW, 70 is not out of the question Tuesday or Wed.

Tough to see how the next wave for late next week is cold enough, but with an EPO ridge building colder air should be getting closer thereafter.

 

[DE2PA]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With a Bermuda high and a low tracking well NW, 70 is not out of the question Tuesday or Wed.

Tough to see how the next wave for late next week is cold enough, but with an EPO ridge building colder air should be getting closer thereafter.

 

 

[IronTy]

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With a Bermuda high and a low tracking well NW, 70 is not out of the question Tuesday or Wed.

Tough to see how the next wave for late next week is cold enough, but with an EPO ridge building colder air should be getting closer thereafter.

 

You rang?

[CAPE]

28 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

 

Embrace the warmth. 6z GFS snows on us a few days later. 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Embrace the warmth. 6z GFS snows on us a few days later. 

it only takes one Jan 16 type event to right the ship...just one.  not a big ask really.  doesn't solve our longer term issue of burning edges around the winter like when Dec 5th was a famed date for snow...but it helps...just like whiskey...drink tonight and worry in the morning.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If I make it to January 10 without 1" of snow the numbers get even uglier.  It's a VERY small list...but most are years that ended with almost no snow at all around DC.  

We have a below average temp month this December ...we had a good pattern. The no snow was a fluke.....its different from other shutout December months

I tend to think there is some validity to this. I commented a few days ago that perhaps the warning has made a snowless start more common also making a turn around more likely. Early season seems to be most impacted.  But I’m just posting statistics. I’ve always done this. Good or bad. Ironically many years ago I was on the flip side of this and I remember some including Mitch being frustrated at me for being too optimistic!  Truth is I bust high way more than low on snowfall. I’m not pessimistic. It’s just been so god awful recently it makes it seem that way when I simply post the objective statistics. 

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, IronTy said:

You rang?

For you friend. 

[BristowWx]

^amazing Buffalo can get to near 60 with 843 inches of snow on the ground in Jan no less.  that should be quite sloppy  

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

^amazing Buffalo can get to near 60 with 843 inches of snow on the ground in Jan no less.  that should be quite sloppy  

They had over 2" of rain just before the Arctic front. Going be some saturated soil.

[Terpeast]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

They had over 2" of rain just before the Arctic front. Going be some saturated soil.

I used to live there during college. It was always extremely muddy throughout the year. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

For you friend. 

Those temps 60+ are important up this way for personal reasons (research). Bring it!

[AtlanticWx]

74% of our snow comes after January 15th which is a rough eyeball for our "pattern change"

Has using snowfall in previous months as an analog for the rest of the winter worked before? Genuine question, not trying to come at anyone for their methods but I don't think it's fair to label this winter as a shut out when we still aren't at our climatologically favored period.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

74% of our snow comes after January 15th which is a rough eyeball for our "pattern change"

Has using snowfall in previous months as an analog for the rest of the winter worked before? Genuine question, not trying to come at anyone for their methods but I don't think it's fair to label this winter as a shut out when we still aren't at our climatologically favored period.

Wasn't much of anything wintry in 2014-15 prior to mid Feb iirc. Classic back loaded winter.

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I used to live there during college. It was always extremely muddy throughout the year. 

You guys are killing me with these Buffalo posts (I lurk in here b/c you have great long range discussion). Seeing people running through the neighborhood yesterday in shorts and t-shirts with 867” of snow on the ground was quite amusing. Hope you guys bust out of the snow drought soon! 

[MDScienceTeacher]

On 12/27/2022 at 4:49 PM, MN Transplant said:

This chart might get to what WesternFringe is trying to say.  If you take a centered 9 year running mean, the "worst" periods over that kind of timescale aren't getting worse.  We are still pulling off enough of the 2003s, 2010s, 2014s and 2016s to balance it out.

 

 

 

I have been reading this discussion all morning.  Is this the farthest things go back with reasonably reliable data?

[AtlanticWx]

Using snowfall for analogs doesn't really have weight imo, previous snowfall doesn't change the current pattern so even if you had 10" of snow in December, I don't see the weight it would have on the future patterns. Using teleconnections for analogs makes sense though

[Eskimo Joe]

48 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

74% of our snow comes after January 15th which is a rough eyeball for our "pattern change"

Has using snowfall in previous months as an analog for the rest of the winter worked before? Genuine question, not trying to come at anyone for their methods but I don't think it's fair to label this winter as a shut out when we still aren't at our climatologically favored period.

Is that for all three terminals, or just DCA?