January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[DarkSharkWX]

12 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

one thing i particularly like about the upcoming pattern is that we don't have to worry about much going wrong. the pacific jet is currently over extended and we actually want a retraction which is quite easy to get in a niña iirc

as long as that ULL near alaska retrogades and become an aleutian low, we're in business for january. ❄️❄️

and looks to be a legit +PNA over the rockies and a ridge bridge along with +SCAND in our peak climo

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

There goes my confidence out the window

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There goes my confidence out the window

Was just going to post the exact same thing.  Lol.

 

How's the house coming?

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, AtlanticWx said:

@psuhoffman do you know which years were the ones you used when Manchester MD had no snow in December as analogs? i'm curious to see what the H5 patterns were in those years during january

Off the top of my head I think the non Nino years with less than 1” were 1949-50, 54-55, 58-59, 75-76, 80-81, 84-85, 2001-02, 16-17, 19-20 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Off the top of my head I think the non Nino years with less than 1” were 1949-50, 54-55, 58-59, 75-76, 80-81, 84-85, 2001-02, 16-17, 19-20 

Adding El Niño’s doesn’t make they much difference up here like it does for DC. The 4 El Niño’s that started with no snow were all below avg. 2 were awful, 72-73 and 91-92. The other 2 recovered to be respectable but still well below avg snow. Overall in 97 years or records here there are only 13 years that got to January without 1” of snow. They all ended up way below avg snow and 12 of the 13 are on the list of 15 least snowy years here!   So basically every single time we didn’t get snow up here by January it was a horrible snow season here.  But there is a first time for anything. And for some places in the southern parts of this forum it’s not as dire where one fluke 8” snow can make the season ok.

[DarkSharkWX]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Off the top of my head I think the non Nino years with less than 1” were 1949-50, 54-55, 58-59, 75-76, 80-81, 84-85, 2001-02, 16-17, 19-20 

Based on NOHRSC, Manchester got only 0.1-1" during 2021 before 2022, and was a non-Nino year

[Terpeast]

If we’re talking the difference between T/0.1” and 1-2”, remember that if it had been a smidge colder on the front end of the cutter, we might be dancing instead of whatever we’re doing now. Or if the anafront produced just another hour of snow in the right places. 

A lot of it is pure luck. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Based on NOHRSC, Manchester got only 0.1-1" during 2021 before 2022, and was a non-Nino year

We got a little over an inch on Dec 27th. Picture of my kids playing in it. It was barely snow, temp 33-34, rain all around us at lower elevations. only the ridgetops really got it. 

[nw baltimore wx]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If we’re talking the difference between T/0.1” and 1-2”, remember that if it had been a smidge colder on the front end of the cutter, we might be dancing instead of whatever we’re doing now. Or if the anafront produced just another hour of snow in the right places. 

A lot of it is pure luck. 

And ours has been nothing but bad for several years.

 

[BristowWx]

There are really no cold anomalies in NA through 384 on GEFS.  Nothing that says wow on h5 either.  Long boring stretch ahead of that is to be believed. 

[AtlanticWx]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Off the top of my head I think the non Nino years with less than 1” were 1949-50, 54-55, 58-59, 75-76, 80-81, 84-85, 2001-02, 16-17, 19-20 

using the januaries of those years to create an H5 plot:

and removing Jan of 1985 which was really the only good Jan in those winters therefore being an outlier, you get this H5 composite

imo, the pattern expected into jan won't really look like this. sure, we get a -PNA in the first week but as the PAC jet retracts everything should retrogade west giving us an EC trough, +PNA and aluetian low

[AtlanticWx]

nice signal this far out, we'll see what happens

 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

There are really no cold anomalies in NA through 384 on GEFS.  Nothing that says wow on h5 either.  Long boring stretch ahead of that is to be believed. 

Slightly + temp anomalies over much of Canada is cold enough as we move towards mid Jan. Temps in our region are below avg by the 10th verbatim on that run.

Maybe look at the actual temp panels. Looks pretty cold.

 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Slightly + temp anomalies over much of Canada is cold enough as we move towards mid Jan. Temps in our region are below avg by the 10th verbatim on that run.

Maybe look at the actual temp panels. Looks pretty cold.

 

Good point I often look at 2m temp anomaly.  My mistake.  

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

using the januaries of those years to create an H5 plot:

and removing Jan of 1985 which was really the only good Jan in those winters therefore being an outlier, you get this H5 composite

imo, the pattern expected into jan won't really look like this. sure, we get a -PNA in the first week but as the PAC jet retracts everything should retrogade west giving us an EC trough, +PNA and aluetian low

Good test of guidance v analogs. Several of this years analogs are in that set and they say don’t get your hopes up. The guidance says we head a different direction than history suggests. Place your bets. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If we’re talking the difference between T/0.1” and 1-2”, remember that if it had been a smidge colder on the front end of the cutter, we might be dancing instead of whatever we’re doing now. Or if the anafront produced just another hour of snow in the right places. 

A lot of it is pure luck. 

I agree there is some of fluke in this.  But 9/9 (or 13/13 if we include ninos) means something.  But I don’t mean it to say there is a 100% chance of below avg snow. If we had more years of records eventually there would be an exception. I don’t think it’s impossible to get a snowy winter when I get no snow through New Years. Just the odds are low enough we haven’t captured an example YET.   
 

I also opined that perhaps as November and December warms we’re creating a climo where that is more likely. 

[DarkSharkWX]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good test of guidance v analogs. Several of this years analogs are in that set and they say don’t get your hopes up. The guidance says we head a different direction than history suggests. Place your bets. 

tbf correlation doesn't equal causation - most of those years that had <1" for you before Jan 1st were bad for everyone because of a strong -PNA and SER which is different from what we've had so far and what is being shown on guidance

the reason why we will go AN for the end of dec thru first week of jan is because of NPJ overextension - quite similar to a strong nino pattern

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good test of guidance v analogs. Several of this years analogs are in that set and they say don’t get your hopes up. The guidance says we head a different direction than history suggests. Place your bets. 

Analogs will beat guidance 9/10 times. 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

tbf correlation doesn't equal causation - most of those years that had <1" for you before Jan 1st were bad for everyone because of a strong -PNA and SER which is different from what we've had so far and what is being shown on guidance

the reason why we will go AN for the end of dec thru first week of jan is because of NPJ overextension - quite similar to a strong nino pattern

Huh….the PNA and SE ridge or WAR are EXACTLY why we wasted one of the most -AO periods ever.  You’re right that guidance says that changes, history says it won’t. I’m not taking sides just saying facts. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Overall in 97 years or records here there are only 13 years that got to January without 1” of snow. They all ended up way below avg snow and 12 of the 13 are on the list of 15 least snowy years here!  

 

Up North the same outcomes, however, have to wonder about recent events and climate change, snapping the other way towards colder and snowier. Certainly seems a below average snowfall winter is in store according to the database.  To achieve above normal snowfall this winter we need a STJ to appear in Jan and Feb, along with sustained cold. ( image below courtesy Don S. ) 

 

 

 As mentioned by others colder weather should move into the East after Jan. 7 th.           

I am going to go against LESS SNOW analogs and feel that the Pac improves, - NAO returns and the AO goes very negative by later Jan. We most likely do not get a above snowfall season, but a normal season may still be possble.  This view is in the minority,  but I feel major changes are underway in the HL shortly, and in Asia that will promote improvements in the West.  My concern is how long a better pattern lasts once we get into it.  A normal transition period will need to happen.        

 

 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

using the januaries of those years to create an H5 plot:

and removing Jan of 1985 which was really the only good Jan in those winters therefore being an outlier, you get this H5 composite

imo, the pattern expected into jan won't really look like this. sure, we get a -PNA in the first week but as the PAC jet retracts everything should retrogade west giving us an EC trough, +PNA and aluetian low

Can you post the Jan 1985 map? I am sure it looks totally different from the rest. 

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Huh….the PNA and SE ridge or WAR are EXACTLY why we wasted one of the most -AO periods ever.  You’re right that guidance says that changes, history says it won’t. I’m not taking sides just saying facts. 

And that -PNA....The more neutral/slightly positive look being shown on guidance a couple weeks ago never really verified, did it?

[CAPE]

Interesting that the EPS is building +heights into the NAO domain across Greenland around the 10th, sooner than the GEFS and CMC ens, both of which have - h5 anomalies there at that point.

[AtlanticWx]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Can you post the Jan 1985 map? I am sure it looks totally different from the rest. 

yep! here you go

[DarkSharkWX]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And that -PNA....The more neutral/slightly positive look being shown on guidance a couple weeks ago never really verified, did it?

From Dec 15(around time when we were expected to go into a favorable pattern) - Dec 24(latest date available) there doesn't seem to be any sign of a -PNA/SER at all. The PNA not being east enough(not over the Rockies) and the lack of 50/50 are one of the factors that contributed into the pattern not doing well.

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, AtlanticWx said:

yep! here you go

much more different lmao

[AtlanticWx]

36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Analogs will beat guidance 9/10 times. 

analogs aren't always the greatest thing tbh

for example, everyone said dec 2010 and march 2018 were analogs but compare the H5 maps

dec 2022


dec 2010


march 2018

they do look similar in some aspects, but the main difference i'm seeing is the troughing off the EC coast
also, march 2018 & dec 2010 were a lot snowier for the NE as a whole than this pattern

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Was just going to post the exact same thing.  Lol.

 

How's the house coming?

Slow, but steady. Thanks for asking 

[AtlanticWx]

5 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

analogs aren't always the greatest thing tbh

for example, everyone said dec 2010 and march 2018 were analogs but compare the H5 maps

dec 2022


dec 2010


march 2018

they do look similar in some aspects, but the main difference i'm seeing is the troughing off the EC coast
also, march 2018 & dec 2010 were a lot snowier for the NE as a whole than this pattern

oops, used the wrong level

here are the proper march 2018 and dec 2010 maps


march 2018


dec 2010