January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tbh I ain't even remember asking. But dang it man not today! You like lookin' up depressing stuff on Christmas Day?

If snow statistics ruins your Christmas you might need to re-evaluate some things.  I had an amazing holiday. Watched my children open presents. Played games. Had dinner with my kids and parents. Watched movies. Now I’m relaxing in bed and has a min for the first time in days and saw your post asking me to share the data a couple days ago.  Why would it be depressing.  We both already knew it was absolutely awful.  I already saw it before and you knew because I told you “it’s really ugly” so…why did you ask to see it and why would data about snow that didn’t happen in past years have any affect on your holiday mood?  

 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

How did you fare early last winter? IIRC DCA had no snowfall whatsoever until January 3rd, with 13.2" falling through the west of the winter. I don't recall there being any events for the Northern parts of the subforum during November or December. 

I had some snow up here in December including a 1.5” snowfall right after Xmas. 

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If snow statistics ruins your Christmas you might need to re-evaluate some things.  I had an amazing holiday. Watched my children open presents. Played games. Had dinner with my kids and parents. Watched movies. Now I’m relaxing in bed and has a min for the first time in days and saw your post asking me to share the data a couple days ago.  Why would it be depressing.  We both already knew it was absolutely awful.  I already saw it before and you knew because I told you “it’s really ugly” so…why did you ask to see it and why would data about snow that didn’t happen in past years have any affect on your holiday mood?  

 

Oh I don't know, maybe because the snow drought has been awful, and a reminder of something that may indicate yet another year of the awful is depressing, and maybe I ain't made peace with that or the snow drought yet? Already knowing it's awful don't make it any easier to take. Sometimes not thinking/being reminded of it on a special day with lots of joy is better than thinking about it and immediately having the mood dampened. Yeah I had nice service earlier where I played, had a nice dinner, a few presents...peaceful evening. But in comes those numbers and a reminder "Oh that's right we're in a depressing snow drought and it ain't lookin' good this year either"...and suddenly that colors everything. Better not to hear about it, for real.

[cbmclean]

Depressing statistics aside I would say that this month has actually been a good one for long-range guidance as far as verification performance.  They missed the "squirting" vortex which looked to be previously trapped under the ridging ~12/10 but since then they've all been spot on as far as I can tell.  They saw the transition period from 12/15 or so followed by chilly temps followed by a full-fledge arctic blast.  They saw the rapid transition to Pac Puke following the collapse of the -EPO.  And they saw it all at long lead times.  Yeah they did initially fail to see the giant cutter that crushed our dreams of a white Christmas, but they did unanimously catch on ~120 hours with some catching on long before that (the GFS suite was the hold out for a long time).

My understanding is that the GEFS and GEPS are both showing some signs of hope after the puke period.  Hopefully the EPS is also on board (can't see past 144 on TT).

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh I don't know, maybe because the snow drought has been awful, and a reminder of something that may indicate yet another year of the awful is depressing, and maybe I ain't made peace with that or the snow drought yet? Already knowing it's awful don't make it any easier to take. Sometimes not thinking/being reminded of it on a special day with lots of joy is better than thinking about it and immediately having the mood dampened. Yeah I had nice service earlier where I played, had a nice dinner, a few presents...peaceful evening. But in comes those numbers and a reminder "Oh that's right we're in a depressing snow drought and it ain't lookin' good this year either"...and suddenly that colors everything. Better not to hear about it, for real.

If snow affects you emotionally this much, to the point of affecting your enjoyment of Christmas, you really need to move somewhere that snow isn’t an anomaly!  You also need to examine if this hobby is healthy for you. If this upset you like this why did you ask me to share the imfo and why are you here now when you know we’re staring at a no hope shit the blinds pattern setting in. There was not going to be anything good here yet you made the choice to read.  
 

I love snow but for me it’s also about the science and weather in general. But I also have other vices and joys I can simply transition to when snow isn’t gonna happen. How do you even survive April to October of snow is this central to your emotional state???

[Maestrobjwa]

To balance out that shrink-worthy post...thoughts on this? (This is actually very informative for those of us who want to understand the PV better)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-2022-2023-polar-vortex-power-up-stratospheric-warming-wave-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/

Now I know looking to a SSW is a bit of a desperation move...but I'm wondering if anyone can recall any instances where one of these actually helped us? Lol

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

no hope shit the blinds pattern setting in

I know this was a typo but I think it should be made an official pattern descriptor.  If it's worse than shut the blinds its 

SHITS THE BLINDS

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa

but if you need to be talked off a ledge the sample size is too small to say there can’t be a fluke. There is probably like a 10% chance we get a result better then any of the previous cohort. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

To balance out that shrink-worthy post...thoughts on this? (This is actually very informative for those of us who want to understand the PV better)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-2022-2023-polar-vortex-power-up-stratospheric-warming-wave-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/

Now I know looking to a SSW is a bit of a desperation move...but I'm wondering if anyone can recall any instances where one of these actually helped us? Lol

It could help. Or it could send the PV to the other side of the world. No way to know. 

[cbmclean]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

To balance out that shrink-worthy post...thoughts on this? (This is actually very informative for those of us who want to understand the PV better)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-2022-2023-polar-vortex-power-up-stratospheric-warming-wave-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/

Now I know looking to a SSW is a bit of a desperation move...but I'm wondering if anyone can recall any instances where one of these actually helped us? Lol

I cannot personally remember a SSW event that worked for the eastern CONUS.  But I believe that the Great Plains blast of Feb 2021 was related to a SSW event from that January. So in theory that could happen to us next time (although I could do without the power grid disruptions).  Or alternatively our new super-WAR overlord might mean that SSW-related cold blasts will forever shunted away from us.  I say that in jest, but I think it is something that needs to be considered. 

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I cannot personally remember a SSW event that worked for the eastern CONUS.  But I believe that the Great Plains blast of Feb 2021 was related to a SSW event from that January. So in theory that could happen to us next time (although I could do without the power grid disruptions).  Or alternatively our new super-WAR overlord might mean that SSW-related cold blasts will forever shunted away from us.  I say that in jest, but I think it is something that needs to be considered. 

Yeah that one in Feb 2021 was just dumbdy-dumb. Split the dang thing south into Texas instead of over us (would've made all the difference that season!)

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ya we just need 3 straight cutters followed by a perfectly timed shortwave that’s washing out to be just strong enough to drop 1-2”, if it tracks absolutely perfectly. #workingout 

Not verbatim per an op run, but at the beginning stages of a pattern change, yeah this general idea is how it could work.

[CAPE]

Guidance doesn't appear to be 'can kicking' this time. This period is looking better.

[CAPE]

Latest GEFSX gets to a more favorable look sooner compared to the previous run. Most notable difference are heights building into Greenland mid month, with the TPV displaced further south. CFS doing this as well.

[Ji]

Latest GEFSX gets to a more favorable look sooner compared to the previous run. Most notable difference are heights building into Greenland mid month, with the TPV displaced further south. CFS doing this as well.

That would be kinda funny if it snowed in January after the extreme December hype

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest GEFSX gets to a more favorable look sooner compared to the previous run. Most notable difference are heights building into Greenland mid month, with the TPV displaced further south. CFS doing this as well.

That would be kinda funny if it snowed in January after the extreme December hype

December is almost always a fail. Fall month here.

[Ji]

December is almost always a fail. Fall month here.

It's sad. Temps thus month are solidly below average. Precip is above average and yet...no snow

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

December is almost always a fail. Fall month here.

It's sad. Temps thus month are solidly below average. Precip is above average and yet...no snow

Bad timing and bad luck. Bad climo. So much to overcome.

[Bob Chill]

52 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

December is almost always a fail. Fall month here.

It's sad. Temps thus month are solidly below average. Precip is above average and yet...no snow

Above avg precip is a direct result of being on the tropical side of all strong lows so far. Pretty much like every other Dec with strong lows coming out of the MW. We need weak events in Dec otherwise we need a once a decade fluke. Which will happen... tracking it beyond 4 days has minimal returns on investment 

[Terpeast]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If snow affects you emotionally this much, to the point of affecting your enjoyment of Christmas, you really need to move somewhere that snow isn’t an anomaly!  You also need to examine if this hobby is healthy for you. If this upset you like this why did you ask me to share the imfo and why are you here now when you know we’re staring at a no hope shit the blinds pattern setting in. There was not going to be anything good here yet you made the choice to read.  
 

I love snow but for me it’s also about the science and weather in general. But I also have other vices and joys I can simply transition to when snow isn’t gonna happen. How do you even survive April to October of snow is this central to your emotional state???

@Maestrobjwa that’s actually good advice. You have many ways to get it out of your system:

1. Chase a LES event in Buffalo

2. Move to NNE where snow is guaranteed (but so are months of 50s gray windy days)

3. Move to Denver where seasonal snowfall is similar to northern midatlantic, but even when it doesn’t snow, you can always drive 1-2 hours west to hit the slopes. 

4. Move to a warm tropical climate and forget about snow altogether. 

I have done all 4 of the above. Trust me, when you move to a snowy area, it’s just not the same where we go nuts whenever it snows precisely because it’s not the norm. It gets boring and tedious after a while. Imagine having to shovel your car out every 2 days and scrape the ice off it. I got sick of it.

I’ve lived abroad in a tropical climate (southeast Asia) and there’s a ton more to life than tracking snowstorms, most of which usually fail. 

[mdhokie]

next two weekends look like absolute dog poo for skiing locally. Didn't know the weekend rule also applied to rainstorms 

[EastCoast NPZ]

@Maestrobjwa

I'll add an option 5 to Terp's list above, and it's the easiest of the options: 

5.  Make a 3 hour drive to Davis or Deep Creek.  

[DarkSharkWX]

the +SCAND should eventually build into an -NAO and that along with the aleutian low will put pressure on the pv

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Not verbatim per an op run, but at the beginning stages of a pattern change, yeah this general idea is how it could work.

You know I’m just messing with ya. We all know you know what you’re talking about.  Yes the pattern looks good after the first week of January. All my posts are simply pure statistics and climo based because historically Ninas that start bad don’t end well. Given the last total pattern fail I just don’t have the stomach to dive back into day 15 diagnostics. Get a legit threat inside day 5 and I’ll get excited though. 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

December is almost always a fail. Fall month here.

Yes but it’s not always a FAIL month. What’s more typical, or was, is we get a lot of frustrating mostly misses but the DC area does get some minor snowfalls. Some 1-2” type stuff. We just don’t remember them because they were seen as fails when just NW of there (like me) got 8”. And up here getting to January with no snow is pretty rare. So yea Dec is usually a small f fail but not always a total FAIL like this. The point of my data was to show that yes we do get a lot of total fails but unfortunately we also get a lot of really bad snowfall years and they tend to be the same often. 

2 hours ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

December is almost always a fail. Fall month here.

It's sad. Temps thus month are solidly below average. Precip is above average and yet...no snow

So ending on a positive note, was thinking maybe since we’re losing snow climo on the edges most, and early season would logically be impacted most with the warmer SST feeding the SE ridge, in that new climo perhaps it will become more common to have a total dud Dec and still flip snowy in January.  If true can’t get back what we lost in a Dec so maybe a 28” winter becomes a 24” one or something like that.  But maybe this year will be the first time we went into January with no snow then ended up with a big snowfall year. It’s possible. 

[MDstorm]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You know I’m just messing with ya. We all know you know what you’re talking about.  Yes the pattern looks good after the first week of January. All my posts are simply pure statistics and climo based because historically Ninas that start bad don’t end well. Given the last total pattern fail I just don’t have the stomach to dive back into day 15 diagnostics. Get a legit threat inside day 5 and I’ll get excited though. 

Yes but it’s not always a FAIL month. What’s more typical, or was, is we get a lot of frustrating mostly misses but the DC area does get some minor snowfalls. Some 1-2” type stuff. We just don’t remember them because they were seen as fails when just NW of there (like me) got 8”. And up here getting to January with no snow is pretty rare. So yea Dec is usually a small f fail but not always a total FAIL like this. The point of my data was to show that yes we do get a lot of total fails but unfortunately we also get a lot of really bad snowfall years and they tend to be the same often. 

So ending on a positive note, was thinking maybe since we’re losing snow climo on the edges most, and early season would logically be impacted most with the warmer SST feeding the SE ridge, in that new climo perhaps it will become more common to have a total dud Dec and still flip snowy in January.  If true can’t get back what we lost in a Dec so maybe a 28” winter becomes a 24” one or something like that.  But maybe this year will be the first time we went into January with no snow then ended up with a big snowfall year. It’s possible. 

[AtlanticWx]

@psuhoffman do you know which years were the ones you used when Manchester MD had no snow in December as analogs? i'm curious to see what the H5 patterns were in those years during january

[AtlanticWx]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

@Maestrobjwa

I'll add an option 5 to Terp's list above, and it's the easiest of the options: 

5.  Make a 3 hour drive to Davis or Deep Creek.  

deep creek is packed with snow rn, just went so can confirm. if you wanna feel less snow-starved, just go during or right after what seems like a pretty dynamic system passing over us bc upslope will probably be best at that time. 

we planned this vacation a month in advance so we just got lucky with timing, but it was snowing pretty much every day since we got here from the 23rd and stopped snowing last night

theres like 6-12" of snowpack too

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 hours ago, Cobalt said:

How did you fare early last winter? IIRC DCA had no snowfall whatsoever until January 3rd, with 13.2" falling through the west of the winter. I don't recall there being any events for the Northern parts of the subforum during November or December. 

Yeah, DC got nothing in December, and then had that one good storm on Jan. 3 last year, followed by some good cold.  A few days after the 3rd, we got some kind of clipper(?) system that dropped a couple inches of powder on top.  So January was pretty good for this area.  February, as I recall, pretty well sucked for everyone, but then we got that one neat "last farewell" event in mid-March.

[North Balti Zen]

34 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, DC got nothing in December, and then had that one good storm on Jan. 3 last year, followed by some good cold.  A few days after the 3rd, we got some kind of clipper(?) system that dropped a couple inches of powder on top.  So January was pretty good for this area.  February, as I recall, pretty well sucked for everyone, but then we got that one neat "last farewell" event in mid-March.

Pretty disappointing bust up this way for that storm in northern Maryland. Like. almost nothing kinda bust. But glad you all got to experience that one. Probably helps now with patience. 

[AtlanticWx]

one thing i particularly like about the upcoming pattern is that we don't have to worry about much going wrong. the pacific jet is currently over extended and we actually want a retraction which is quite easy to get in a niña iirc

as long as that ULL near alaska retrogades and become an aleutian low, we're in business for january. ❄️❄️