January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[clskinsfan]

Well it doesnt appear we will be getting any help from the MJO anytime soon. Doesnt mean we wont get any snow. But I would be shocked to see anything big happen with the MJO near the COD for the foreseeable future. 

 

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Well it doesnt appear we will be getting any help from the MJO anytime soon. Doesnt mean we wont get any snow. But I would be shocked to see anything big happen with the MJO in the COD for the foreseeable future. 

 

 

I'm terrible at reading those MJO projections... so please correct me if I'm wrong. The black line is what has already happened, and the red part is what is happening right now, and the blue/purple is the forecast? And it seems to get stuck in 7, barely outside of COD?

So if it's not going to phase 8, we would rather it go into COD and rely on another pattern like PNA or NAO, right?

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I'm terrible at reading those MJO projections... so please correct me if I'm wrong. The black line is what has already happened, and the red part is what is happening right now, and the blue/purple is the forecast? And it seems to get stuck in 7, barely outside of COD?

So if it's not going to phase 8, we would rather it go into COD and rely on another pattern like PNA or NAO, right?

Yes. But the problem is there is really no amplitude at all showing up in the future. And phase 7 is usually the phase with the highest amplitude. 7 is also the phase that the MJO usually moves through rapidly.  Again that doesnt mean it wont snow here. But it could impact the activity on the southern jet. Another thing that concerns me a little bit is usually the MJO is amped towards the end of Nina from what I understand. It is one of the indicators of an upcoming Nino. And I really dont want any part of a 4th Nina next winter. 

I edited my above post to "near" instead of in the COD. Thanks for the correction. 

[WxUSAF]

That plot shows the MJO hanging weakly in phase 7. MJO hasn’t really been a factor lately so I wouldn’t overly worry. A lot of variability the last 60 days or so (maybe even closer to 90) has been driven by the PAC jet and the EPO. All seems to be cycling on roughly 2 week timescales. We can already see signs of the EPO switching back to negative. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes. But the problem is there is really no amplitude at all showing up in the future. And phase 7 is usually the phase with the highest amplitude. 7 is also the phase that the MJO usually moves through rapidly.  Again that doesnt mean it wont snow here. But it could impact the activity on the southern jet. Another thing that concerns me a little bit is usually the MJO is amped towards the end of Nina from what I understand. It is one of the indicators of an upcoming Nino. And I really dont want any part of a 4th Nina next winter. 

Thanks! Learned something new today. 

[WEATHER53]

Low of 5 and currently 18 and peak low sustained winds wind chill last night -13

[WEATHER53]

It’s not winter rarity but we are in a 2 week oscillation pattern .  Gets mild after this and then turns  cold about 1/7 and that push looks like very cold air pouring down on us from PA/NY instead of rollover cold from Midwest 

[DarkSharkWX]

All we need is a Canadian high, a ridge over the Rockies, and a 50/50 for a big snowstorm, high-latitude blocking/-EPO aren't necessary(though they obv help)

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

All we need is a Canadian high, a ridge over the Rockies, and a 50/50 for a big snowstorm, high-latitude blocking/-EPO aren't necessary(though they obv help)

That 50-50 is more crucial than many realize. 

[WxUSAF]

-EPO chills our source region, but most of our big snowstorms do not occur with a -EPO.

[Weather Will]

I am already tracking my January 9 snowstorm….WB 12Z GEFS

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes. But the problem is there is really no amplitude at all showing up in the future. And phase 7 is usually the phase with the highest amplitude. 7 is also the phase that the MJO usually moves through rapidly.  Again that doesnt mean it wont snow here. But it could impact the activity on the southern jet. Another thing that concerns me a little bit is usually the MJO is amped towards the end of Nina from what I understand. It is one of the indicators of an upcoming Nino. And I really dont want any part of a 4th Nina next winter. 

I edited my above post to "near" instead of in the COD. Thanks for the correction. 

Yeah, those SST'S in the ph 8 area are still pretty cold so, a factor in MJO progression. If further warming occurs there, the MJO may be more helpful the last half of Winter. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Well it doesnt appear we will be getting any help from the MJO anytime soon. Doesnt mean we wont get any snow. But I would be shocked to see anything big happen with the MJO near the COD for the foreseeable future. 

 

 

 

Odd.  What I see is quite different than the above graphic.  This is what I am getting when I go to the site.  That is not a terrible progression(if it verifies), even though low amplitude. 

 

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Odd.  This is what I am getting when I go to the site.

 

Interesting. I wonder if it just updated with the 12Z run? I always get them from here. It has just about all of the MJO forecasts in one place:

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Interesting. I wonder if it just updated with the Z run? I always get them from here. It has just about all of the MJO forecasts in one place:

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

Not sure.  The only reason I noticed it was that I had just looked at the CPC site.  I double and triple checked to make sure I was actually getting the same model.  Maybe the run changed?  Modeling is defninitely back-and-forth w/ MJO plots regardless.  We have speculated in the TN forum that maybe the colder surface SSTs (near the equatorial dateline recently) are preventing convection from reaching phase 8 - I have not looked at those SSTs this week.  The CFSv2 is waffling almost with each run.  It looks like phase 7 and then progresses to 8 OR it stalls in 7 and rotates back(just looking at the NA 500mb look as evidence).  The 12z GEFS and 12z GEPS do like more like the PNA begins to build out west late in their runs.  I am not holding my breath w/ either an optimal or sub-optimal solution though.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/emom.shtml

[Carvers Gap]

And thanks for letting me duck-in for a sec.  You all do a great job over here!!!!  I read it pretty much 3-4x per day.

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

All we need is a Canadian high, a ridge over the Rockies, and a 50/50 for a big snowstorm, high-latitude blocking/-EPO aren't necessary(though they obv help)

Is that all??

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

That 50-50 is more crucial than many realize. 

Learned that the hard way this month.

[CAPE]

This is not a bad setup as advertised leading into the potential 'WB WW Storm' around the 8th as the pattern is in transition. The blob of +heights over the east consolidates over Hudson Bay(a look that used to work for us) as the AK vortex begins to retrograde. In response a ridge pops in the SW, as heights are also building in the EPO domain. As this occurs, a piece of energy is shed off from the western trough as it lifts north, and this wave progresses eastward under the Hudson "Block". There also happens to be an upper low passing through the 50-50 position as the shortwave approaches. Wayyy out there and ofc it won't evolve quite this way, but it does indicate that the pattern could be favorable enough for a trackable event as early as the 8th-12th window. Most likely this would not yet be cold enough verbatim, and would probably track somewhat inland. Not a bad signal on the 12z GEFS for something potentially wintry though. Obv subject to much change at this range, better or worse.

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Don’t think we’re going to get digital blue as a Christmas present, but we did get continued good H5 looks at D13 or so overnight. Better than coal and onions in our stocking I guess. 

[jayyy]

I am already tracking my January 9 snowstorm….WB 12Z GEFS

I’d take P27 at this point honestly if it meant something would materialize for majority of folks! A few inches would make anyone happy after a big dry spell (insert joke here)

[BristowWx]

GEFS gets us deep into Jan with AN temps.  Who knows after that but it looks rather bleak to me. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GEFS gets us deep into Jan with AN temps.  Who knows after that but it looks rather bleak to me. 

It only goes out to the 10th lol. And as advertised on the 6z GEFS temps are right about average at that point, with colder air lurking in central Canada.

-EPO/WPO and +PNA h5 look.

[CAPE]

Latest GEFSX for mid to late Jan. I'll take that pattern for prime cold/snow climo period.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It only goes out to the 10th lol. And as advertised on the 6z GEFS temps are right about average at that point, with colder air lurking in central Canada.

-EPO/WPO and +PNA h5 look.

What do the extended ens look like?

We’ve had thaws before like this even in big winters. I think we get a total of 3 maybe 4 chances.

We already whiffed at one, so 2-3 more periods of cold in mid-late Jan, then a thaw last week of Jan, then another shot sometime in Feb, and maybe one last brief window in March. 

I think we get something in Feb, maybe Jan, too. Always a chance we could whiff on all chances, but I don’t think so. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

What do the extended ens look like?

We’ve had thaws before like this even in big winters. I think we get a total of 3 maybe 4 chances.

We already whiffed at one, so 2-3 more periods of cold in mid-late Jan, then a thaw last week of Jan, then another shot sometime in Feb, and maybe one last brief window in March. 

I think we get something in Feb, maybe Jan, too. Always a chance we could whiff on all chances, but I don’t think so. 

For the period just beyond the GEFS run. Continuation of the improving pattern depicted on the ens mean. From there it gets better. (see above)

[WxUSAF]

31 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GEFS gets us deep into Jan with AN temps.  Who knows after that but it looks rather bleak to me. 

 

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It only goes out to the 10th lol. And as advertised on the 6z GEFS temps are right about average at that point, with colder air lurking in central Canada.

-EPO/WPO and +PNA h5 look.

You can see the temps cooling the last 48-72 hours of the ensembles. If that H5 look is right, temps will cool down fast. Point is, the torch looks temporary and so far the return to a better look isn’t getting can-kicked.

[nj2va]

32 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GEFS gets us deep into Jan with AN temps.  Who knows after that but it looks rather bleak to me. 

Put the eggnog down.  

[jayyy]

Is that all??

Not a huge ask. But we honestly don’t even need all of that to see a solid snowfall or to have an above average winter. The problem for us the past few years is that pretty much every single setup has been a wild game of chess which requires threading the needle— phases, TPV splits, perfect ridging, Miller B’s, etc. The MidAtlantic doesn’t do complicated well. How many fails do we need to experience for folks to understand this? If ONE piece of the puzzle doesn’t evolve exactly as needed, it’s over for 90+% of the CWA. Storms either cut west or come together too late for our latitude, and weenies are left heartbroken because a few runs 7-10 days out showed flush hits.

All we really need in these parts is the Bob Chill setup: An entrenched cold dome with energy sliding W to E (even NW to SE) underneath us. Some of our best wintry periods in the past 10-20 years have come from simple setups during peak climo (late Jan thru late feb)

Give us a nice cold dome (preferably bleeding down from north of here — Quebec for instance - not the Midwest) and an active jet that brings energy from the west coast to the Delmarva, and let’s roll the dice.

Snowmaggedon in feb 2010 is an easy example. It evolved from a pretty simple pattern. Pt 1 evolved from energy that moved from Baja CA to Delmarva which overran a fresh cold airmass, and part 2 evolved from a clipper that intensified off the coast. All made possible by an entrenched cold air mass and a jet that pushed storms just south of here.

I’d take the simple BCP (bob chill pattern) over the pattern we just had any day of the week. We just had what many would call the “ideal setup” -NAO/AO, +PNA, -EPO and it resulted in nothing more than snow tv for a few hours for most of the sub. Too many moving parts - so we need a near perfect evolution at 500/H5 for areawide snowfalls to materialize. That setup is typically great for NYC to BOS, not DC to PHL.

It’s pretty clear that marginal events go our way less often nowadays - whether its a result of GW or not is anyone’s guess. Because of this, we don’t really want complicated. Complicated typically means marginal. Keep it simple, and snow will come in due time. I’d rather rack up several easy 3-6/4-8” type storms from a simple pattern to reach or exceed climo than try to bank on seeing a KU to save winter because we’re attempting to thread the needle for 3 straight months. There’s a reason we do well and over-perform during simple overrunning (WAA) events and fail most of the time when we expect a big storm to evolve from a ton of moving pieces — our latitude prefers simple.

[Ralph Wiggum]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

You can see the temps cooling the last 48-72 hours of the ensembles. If that H5 look is right, temps will cool down fast. Point is, the torch looks temporary and so far the return to a better look isn’t getting can-kicked.

Pretty much right on track....Jan 8ish is the transition. Have a strong suspicion based on teleconnection analogs that we are going to be busy mid Jan onward. Sticking to my theme for this year....patience and backloaded. See absolutely zero reason to have doubt wrt that attm.