January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Weather Will]

Will be watching the individual GEFS members temp anomalies….some members do speed up the progression back to cold.  WB 0Z GEFS.

[Weather Will]

Latest WB GEFS extended brings back normal temperature starting the 7 day period around the 12th and progressively colder thereafter….

[CAPE]

Replenishing the cold into our source region can happen pretty quickly once the TPV over AK retrogrades towards the Aleutians, in combination with ridge development in the PNA/EPO domains.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Replenishing the cold into our source region can happen pretty quickly once the TPV over AK retrogrades towards the Aleutians, in combination with ridge development in the PNA/EPO domains.

We've seen it a lot with quick progressive conditions last 7 years. It doesn't take much at all really. Cold can build and be here in 5 days if the flow cooperates. Tracking British Columbia and Alberta height patterns begins in earnest late next week 

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

It's pertinent given the likelihood it will not have snowed in DC by Jan 1, and the advertised pattern the week or so beyond that looks highly unfavorable.

We don’t typically get snow in December, unless my memory is really bad. It always seems that snow before January is pretty rare around here. At least in the past 25 years or so.  

[nj2va]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Here is a depressing fact.  In all NON el nino seasons in the last 50 years where DCA doesn't get at least a half inch of measurable snow by Jan 1 the avg snowfall is 6" and the chances of an above avg season are 1 in 16.  The avg goes down to 5" if it doesn't snow by Jan 10 and 4" if not by Jan 20. 

You must be a blast at parties   

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

We don’t typically get snow in December, unless my memory is really bad. It always seems that snow before January is pretty rare around here. At least in the past 25 years or so.  

Maybe go back and read Psu's post again.

[Chris78]

36 minutes ago, nj2va said:

You must be a blast at parties   

And Doug K. Is popping champagne 

[snowmagnet]

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe go back and read Psu's post again.

Oh I did, and I realize he is talking about non-nino years.  I just general don’t recall very many years where we do have snow before January. I’m just trying to rationalize my way into staying optimistic. 

[Terpeast]

51 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Oh I did, and I realize he is talking about non-nino years.  I just general don’t recall very many years where we do have snow before January. I’m just trying to rationalize my way into staying optimistic. 

Yeah, I’m with you actually. Apart from 2009 and the weird Dec 5 quirk in the 2000’s, December is not typically a big snow month in this area. 

February is actually our snowiest month with January a very close second. And I think this Nina is on its way out. 

I did predict a below average snowfall winter with the low end being 7” for DCA and 9” for IAD. I still think we ihit those numbers at minimum. We only need one decent storm to get there. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

I have always found the TNH impacts on our weather to be a bit nebulous. Anecdotally if either phase is strong it can have negative impacts wrt the desired outcome of cold/snow in our region, and it seems be more problematic in combination with a Nina.

Bingo…the TNH has a correlation with a se ridge. I think historically there are enough examples where that can be overcome to make the snow correlation weak. But lately the SE ridge is winning and bullying everything else. 

[George BM]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I’m with you actually. Apart from 2009 and the weird Dec 5 quirk in the 2000’s, December is not typically a big snow month in this area. 

February is actually our snowiest month with January a very close second. And I think this Nina is on its way out. 

I did predict a below average snowfall winter with the low end being 7” for DCA and 9” for IAD. I still think we hit those numbers at minimum. 

I'd actually wondered lately whether I was spoiled because those strings of good Decembers in the 2000's happened to occur when I was a kid. 

IMBY and FY in Herndon, VA the last 3 Marches that had a warning level snow event here was in 2018, 2015 and 2014. Meanwhile the last time I experienced a warning level event in December was in 2009. 

Snow month rankings for the majority of this region:

1. February

2. January

3. March

4. December

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, George BM said:

I'd actually wondered lately whether I was spoiled because those strings of good Decembers in the 2000's happened to occur when I was a kid. 

IMBY and FY in Herndon, VA the last 3 Marches that had a warning level snow event here was in 2018, 2015 and 2014. Meanwhile the last time I experienced a warning level event in December was in 2009. 

Snow month rankings for the majority of this region:

1. February

2. January

3. March

4. December

Yep you got spoiled with those Decembers.

When I was a kid, we would have been surprised to get snow in December and think that a big winter must be coming. 

We got bigger snows in March in my time. 

[benjammin]

March snow is like a pity date with a hot girl. You enjoy it while it's happening, but you know it won't last. 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do you just...look up depressing snow stats late at night? I mean dang dude...Info is info, of course but...sending snow weenies to bed depressed? Lol

I look up pertinent stats, if they’re depressing it’s because our climo is depressing. 

2 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

We don’t typically get snow in December, unless my memory is really bad. It always seems that snow before January is pretty rare around here. At least in the past 25 years or so.  

 

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I’m with you actually. Apart from 2009 and the weird Dec 5 quirk in the 2000’s, December is not typically a big snow month in this area. 

February is actually our snowiest month with January a very close second. And I think this Nina is on its way out. 

I did predict a below average snowfall winter with the low end being 7” for DCA and 9” for IAD. I still think we ihit those numbers at minimum. We only need one decent storm to get there. 

I think people are mistakenly equating big snow and snow.  Big snow in DC isn’t common before January. But some snow is. By common I mean like 60%. But of the other 40% some are El Niño’s where they do often start awful then turn it around. Years like 1966, 1978, 1987, 2005, 2015 where we had no snow until late but ended with a big second half.  That’s not a ton but knocks that 40% down to like 33%. And guess what like 30% of our winters end up being GOD AWFUL….and those tend to be non El Niño’s where it doesn’t snow in DC at least some before January. The last 3% is the one exception out of all the years in that cohort, which was 1999-2000 when all our snow came in 10 days in late January in one epic heater. I would argue that was monumental good luck since the pattern wasn’t even that good, but maybe we’re due for good luck again!  
 

I’ll show my work.
This is all the snowfall prior to Jan 1 at DCA in non Nino years going back to 1970. 

6.8, 5.2, 1.5, 11, 0.1, 0.4, 1.4, 3.1, 0.3, 1.7, 0.3, 0.3, 0.7, 1.2, 4.4, 3, 1.0, 2.6, 1.8, .4, .5,  T, 2.0, 0, 6.2, 4.8, 2.6, T, 2.1, T, 0.2, 1.5, T, 1.9, 0.4, T, 0. 

15/37 years didn’t have at least 1/2” of measurable snow by Jan 1.  About 40%. That 40% went on to be below avg 93% of the time with an avg snow of 6” and a high of 15.4”. 
 

We can get a snowy winter in a non El Niño. It happens. But the fact is every one of them produced some snowfall in Nov and Dec.  fact is most of the times we’ve headed into January snowless in a non El Niño we were headed for a cliff. One time it turned around to be slightly above avg, a couple others eeked their way to a near median respectable result. The rest…well we’ve become used to it lately so at least there’s that!  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

24 minutes ago, George BM said:

I'd actually wondered lately whether I was spoiled because those strings of good Decembers in the 2000's happened to occur when I was a kid. 

IMBY and FY in Herndon, VA the last 3 Marches that had a warning level snow event here was in 2018, 2015 and 2014. Meanwhile the last time I experienced a warning level event in December was in 2009. 

Snow month rankings for the majority of this region:

1. February

2. January

3. March

4. December

Yeah those December snow events tend to stay in one's memory and perhaps exaggerate the possibilities every December from then on.  We've certainly had some good ones, like the "Dec. 5 snows" around here and of course the HECS in 2009 (a highly anomalous event to be sure).  We've also had some good cold, like 2009 and 2010, and at least this upcoming weekend this year.  But we've also had lots and lots of "blah" with 40s and 50s, and the unreal April-like December in 2015 (still recall it being almost uncomfortably muggy out on Christmas Eve that year!).  Others can chime in on what particular Nino state we had or the specific pattern, but surely that played a role too of course.

 

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yep you got spoiled with those Decembers.

When I was a kid, we would have been surprised to get snow in December and think that a big winter must be coming. 

We got bigger snows in March in my time. 

I've found March has been a surprisingly wintry month here in a lot of years.  I know most around here don't care for snow in March because it doesn't normally stay around, but it is cool when it happens.  2014 comes to mind as perhaps the most with 3 solid events that month (Mar. 2, Mar. 17, Mar. 25) and even a quick inch on Mar. 30.  But we've had several other March events that were advisory to warning-level criteria.  Even the one last year, it wasn't a lot of snow (~2-3" where I am), but it occurred in rapidly falling temperatures along with some wind; I was out taking photos during that one, and believe me, it was quite cold!

[Bob Chill]

Random weird stuff usually gives us good snow outside of obvious Nino conditions. This is why I spend more time than winterwxluvr looking at temps more than precip. Deep cold is necessary around the beltway. And by deep I don't mean like 10 degrees. I mean that favorable mid-level temps push into TN/NC.

It has to stick around too. 2013-14 was bizarre because the cold domes were so massive, it snowed "anyway" when it shouldn't have. I got excited with the blocking like everyone else to start Dec but even with all those pretty reds in good spots, deep cold that could hold on for more than 3 days never showed at any reasonable lead. It still hasn't really happened. This artic shot is more of a scrape than any kind of flood. 

One thing that always gives me optimism is qpf overperformers are becoming the norm lately. Big storms happen and they can make up ground quick. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I look up pertinent stats, if they’re depressing it’s because our climo is depressing. 

 

I think people are mistakenly equating big snow and snow.  Big snow in DC isn’t common before January. But some snow is. By common I mean like 60%. But of the other 40% some are El Niño’s where they do often start awful then turn it around. Years like 1966, 1978, 1987, 2005, 2015 where we had no snow until late but ended with a big second half.  That’s not a ton but knocks that 40% down to like 33%. And guess what like 30% of our winters end up being GOD AWFUL….and those tend to be non El Niño’s where it doesn’t snow in DC at least some before January. The last 3% is the one exception out of all the years in that cohort, which was 1999-2000 when all our snow came in 10 days in late January in one epic heater. I would argue that was monumental good luck since the pattern wasn’t even that good, but maybe we’re due for good luck again!  
 

I’ll show my work.
This is all the snowfall prior to Jan 1 at DCA in non Nino years going back to 1970. 

6.8, 5.2, 1.5, 11, 0.1, 0.4, 1.4, 3.1, 0.3, 1.7, 0.3, 0.3, 0.7, 1.2, 4.4, 3, 1.0, 2.6, 1.8, .4, .5,  T, 2.0, 0, 6.2, 4.8, 2.6, T, 2.1, T, 0.2, 1.5, T, 1.9, 0.4, T, 0. 

15/37 years didn’t have at least 1/2” of measurable snow by Jan 1.  About 40%. That 40% went on to be below avg 93% of the time with an avg snow of 6” and a high of 15.4”. 
 

We can get a snowy winter in a non El Niño. It happens. But the fact is every one of them produced some snowfall in Nov and Dec.  fact is most of the times we’ve headed into January snowless in a non El Niño we were headed for a cliff. One time it turned around to be slightly above avg, a couple others eeked their way to a near median respectable result. The rest…well we’ve become used to it lately so at least there’s that!  

Good points.  I'd be curious how many of those December snows you list were very discrete single events that occurred at just the right time in an otherwise crap pattern, but we lucked out, as opposed to a good stretch of decent cold and we at least managed something.

[psuhoffman]

PS: ya better hope I get at least 1.5” in the next 10 days because the results for DC in years I don’t have at least 2” heading into January are even uglier!!!  Like shut the blinds ugly. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

PS: ya better hope I get at least 1.5” in the next 10 days because the results for DC in years I don’t have at least 2” heading into January are even uglier!!!  Like shut the blinds ugly. 

Stats rivaling the herald of doom ++++AO  speech of Dec 2019? Lol

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Rivaling the ++++AO  speech of Dec 2019?

Mostly a bunch of years DC had almost no snow at all. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Random weird stuff usually gives us good snow outside of obvious Nino conditions. This is why I spend more time than winterwxluvr looking at temps more than precip. Deep cold is necessary around the beltway. And by deep I don't mean like 10 degrees. I mean that favorable mid-level temps push into TN/NC.

It has to stick around too. 2013-14 was bizarre because the cold domes were so massive, it snowed "anyway" when it shouldn't have. I got excited with the blocking like everyone else to start Dec but even with all those pretty reds in good spots, deep cold that could hold on for more than 3 days never showed at any reasonable lead. It still hasn't really happened. This artic shot is more of a scrape than any kind of flood. 

One thing that always gives me optimism is qpf overperformers are becoming the norm lately. Big storms happen and they can make up ground quick. 

Interesting you mention this.  I take it you mean that this Arctic blast isn't something that will be ushering in a week or so of good cold but that it kind of retreats pretty quickly (like shortly after this Christmas weekend).  Why I said it's interesting is because it's not just here, but even those areas out in the midwest that will be even colder than us, they look to warm up soon after as well at about the same time as us.

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Random weird stuff usually gives us good snow outside of obvious Nino conditions. This is why I spend more time than winterwxluvr looking at temps more than precip. Deep cold is necessary around the beltway. And by deep I don't mean like 10 degrees. I mean that favorable mid-level temps push into TN/NC.

It has to stick around too. 2013-14 was bizarre because the cold domes were so massive, it snowed "anyway" when it shouldn't have. I got excited with the blocking like everyone else to start Dec but even with all those pretty reds in good spots, deep cold that could hold on for more than 3 days never showed at any reasonable lead. It still hasn't really happened. This artic shot is more of a scrape than any kind of flood. 

One thing that always gives me optimism is qpf overperformers are becoming the norm lately. Big storms happen and they can make up ground quick. 

The big qpf also gives me optimism. It just takes one fluke to hit it big. Think 2016.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Mostly a bunch of years DC had almost no snow at all. 

May as well post 'em now and get it out of the way, lol

But it would he interesting if if worked out like that...numbers can't always see anomalies, BUT around here they ain't meaningless either.

Btw I'm not insinuating your stats aren't pertinent...but dang man the late night doom!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

PS: ya better hope I get at least 1.5” in the next 10 days because the results for DC in years I don’t have at least 2” heading into January are even uglier!!!  Like shut the blinds ugly. 

Maybe I'll just invest in black paint and paint over the windows for good!  Hell, that might keep the sun from beating down inside during the summer...an extra benefit!! 

[stormtracker]

Now thinking about heading to playa del carmen for MLK weekend.  Surest sign yet that early Jan is going to suck.

[WxUSAF]

Oh look! Here comes Santa Hoff spreading holiday cheer to all the weenies! 

[Terpeast]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

15/37 years didn’t have at least 1/2” of measurable snow by Jan 1.  About 40%. That 40% went on to be below avg 93% of the time with an avg snow of 6” and a high of 15.4”. 

Appreciate you showing your work. 

I don't think we're that far apart in our assessments. My low end call for DCA is 7", and your average from non-nino years without Dec snow in DCA is 6". That's one inch. Maybe I strike a more optimistic tone than you do, but when we both drill down into the data, we're one inch apart in our assessments.

 

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Appreciate you showing your work. 

I don't think we're that far apart in our assessments. My low end call for DCA is 7", and your average from non-nino years without snow in DCA is 6". That's one inch. Maybe I strike a more optimistic tone than you do, but when we both drill down into the data, we're one inch apart in our assessments.

 

Very good point!  I think I separate this into 2 categories for me. Hunting for individual snowfall events and seasonal.  If we get a 3-6” snow in February in that moment I’ll enjoy it and have a great time and be happy. But if the season ends with 8” at DCA and 25” here, it’s a fail!  Especially considering the current situation.  We’re in our worst snow drought ever!  I’m not “hunting” for just another “well at least it wasn’t 2020” winter. I’m hunting for a season that breaks us out of this malaise. A legit good snowfall season.  Or to quantify it…at the end of the last 3 winters we could say “we’re in the least snowy 4 year, 5 year, 6 year stretch in history”. I’m looking for a season to end that malarkey. And I think DC needs about 18” this winter for us not to say “it’s been the worst 7 year stretch ever” when it’s over. My data is to show its very unlikely that happens and we’re probably ending yet another year still in our worst snow drought in recorded history. 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh look! Here comes Santa Hoff spreading holiday cheer to all the weenies!