January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 12/22/2022 at 7:12 PM, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s really a tough pill to swallow flushing the first two weeks of January. By mid Jan we’re eyeballing like 4-6 weeks as time on the clock to realistically score. Disclaimer: I do not like March snow as I’m fully in spring mode by then.

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Half our winters are like this though, lol If you look at our biggest storms...Most with the exception of 96 and Dec 09 came on or after mid Jan! And even the epic 2009-10 season we blanked most of January, lol Nothing is a guarantee, but just giving a bit of context.

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/22/2022 at 7:03 PM, cbmclean said:

Can't check ensembles.  Anyone know if anymore hints of AK vortex retrograding?

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12z GEFS looks pretty good. Ridging back along the west coast of Canada by the end, but will take some time to flush out the puke.

[cbmclean]

  On 12/22/2022 at 7:20 PM, WxUSAF said:

12z GEFS looks pretty good. Ridging back along the west coast of Canada by the end, but will take some time to flush out the puke.

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Thanks.  Seems like puke in is faster than puke out.

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/22/2022 at 7:15 PM, osfan24 said:

It stinks but it could be worse. If we can get the pattern flip we want by mid-January, I'll happily roll the dice in prime-climo from mid-January through hopefully mid-March. It's disappointing this "epic" pattern was a total bust and we won't manage a White Christmas, but it seems like some of the smartest posters we have here like where we are heading.

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Are they same people who liked where we were heading 2 weeks ago for now?  It could be worse.  If we had a raging +AO with the pac issues I’d say it’s likely a non winter total dreg bust like I did right about now in 2019.  I’m not saying that now.  There is hope.  But it’s VERY likely we’re headed where I thought, another below avg snow year.  Whether it’s a god awful almost no snow year or just a more typical awful  8-15” across most of the area bad is still TBD but it’s becoming highly unlikely this is the year to break us out of our historic snow drought  

 

[osfan24]

  On 12/22/2022 at 7:22 PM, psuhoffman said:

Are they same people who liked where we were heading 2 weeks ago for now?  It could be worse.  If we had a raging +AO with the pac issues I’d say it’s likely a non winter total dreg bust like I did right about now in 2019.  I’m not saying that now.  There is hope.  But it’s VERY likely we’re headed where I thought, another below avg snow year.  Whether it’s a god awful almost no snow year or just a more typical awful  8-15” across most of the area bad is still TBD but it’s becoming highly unlikely this is the year to break us out of our historic snow drought  

 

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Ahh, I actually thought you were feeling good about where it seemed like we were eventually heading come the second week or so of January. That is a sobering post. 

I guess all our eggs might be in next year's basket.

[BristowWx]

  On 12/22/2022 at 7:17 PM, psuhoffman said:

Most got some snow in Dec 97. Not much but some. 

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It’s hard to imagine the arctic front going through without a flake 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/22/2022 at 7:25 PM, osfan24 said:

Ahh, I actually thought you were feeling good about where it seemed like we were eventually heading come the second week or so of January. That is a sobering post. 

I guess all our eggs might be in next year's basket.

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I guess it’s a matter of perspective. Do I feel better at where the pattern likely heads than where it’s going to be the next 10-15 days after about Dec 28, ya. But that’s a low bar. From Dec 28 to likely Jan 10 or so we’re facing a total no hope don’t even bother to look pattern. So even a shift to some low probability pattern is better. 
 

Even in our absolute worst winters there are chances. Even 2020 we had a few shots that just didn’t work out. There will be better patterns and at least some threats. Can we overcome the persistent TNH/WAR ridge?  Dunno. I think if we get another -4 AO between Jan 20 and Feb 20 we probably do ok.

 

But let’s acknowledge pure math here. El Niño’s can be notorious late starters. I warned Mitch in 2015 that no snow into January did not mean we were doomed. 2005 and 2007 flipped late too. But that’s not true of La Nina’s. The stats show when we get deep into winter in a Nina without snow they tend to end up REAlLY bad like 80% of the time. Math sucks sometimes. 

[CAPE]

  On 12/22/2022 at 7:24 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

Wrong thread, we already have the event thread cluttered we don't need the long range one messed up too. 

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Dude.

I posted it here accidentally, and immediately deleted it. You are trying wayyy too hard.

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/22/2022 at 7:47 PM, CAPE said:

Dude.

I posted it here accidentally, and immediately deleted it. You are trying wayyy too hard.

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Be like this in here today 

[CAPE]

Latest edition of the Euro weeklies. Pretty much the same pattern progression as other extended products on the Pacific side. NAO neutral/slightly+. Around the 10th and esp beyond, the pattern turns colder/ more favorable.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 12/22/2022 at 8:22 PM, psuhoffman said:

Be like this in here today 

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Then who's gonna deliver the pepper?

[Ralph Wiggum]

End of the GEFS is certainly workable. WPO/EPO help, split flow out west, flat trof in the East.....gradient type look. Progressive and not signaling a bombing out low crawling up the coast, but this is a common way to stack up a few 2-4"/3-6" systems verbatim based on that pattern and being just to the N of the boundary. Conjecture at this range but at least it seems maybe we are just beginning to see the back side of the crud looks. 

[CAPE]

  On 12/22/2022 at 9:03 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

End of the GEFS is certainly workable. WPO/EPO help, split flow out west, flat trof in the East.....gradient type look. Progressive and not signaling a bombing out low crawling up the coast, but this is a common way to stack up a few 2-4"/3-6" systems verbatim based on that pattern and being just to the N of the boundary. Conjecture at this range but at least it seems maybe we are just beginning to see the back side of the crud looks. 

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Looks like things are heading the right way towards the end of the latest ens runs. The extended guidance gives a bit of confidence this is the case.

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/22/2022 at 9:12 PM, CAPE said:

Looks like things are heading the right way towards the end of the latest ens runs. The extended guidance gives a bit of confidence this is the case.

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Yep. We are still going to require extreme patience tho because even with the looks we both posted, the arctic air is still going thru reload and is going to need time. When it delivers? We just can't know.

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/22/2022 at 9:12 PM, CAPE said:

Looks like things are heading the right way towards the end of the latest ens runs. The extended guidance gives a bit of confidence this is the case.

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  On 12/22/2022 at 9:17 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep. We are still going to require extreme patience tho because even with the looks we both posted, the arctic air is still going thru reload and is going to need time. When it delivers? We just can't know.

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If we can see the other side of the warm/relax period by the time we get to the warm/relax period, then I'll be pretty satisfied.  Long way off, but seems there's a chance of that.  

[North Balti Zen]

what if it is all just a warm/relax period until April when the cold finally arrives to mess up the start of spring per usual?

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/22/2022 at 9:44 PM, WxUSAF said:

 

If we can see the other side of the warm/relax period by the time we get to the warm/relax period, then I'll be pretty satisfied.  Long way off, but seems there's a chance of that.  

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I will agree with this

[leo2000]

  On 12/22/2022 at 8:56 PM, CAPE said:

Latest edition of the Euro weeklies. Pretty much the same pattern progression as other extended products on the Pacific side. NAO neutral/slightly+. Around the 10th and esp beyond, the pattern turns colder/ more favorable.

 

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I don't believe them sadly they were dead wrong about the so called good pattern continuing. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Perhaps the MJO can circle back around during our prime climo.  It's way out there, but it's all we have right now.

[cbmclean]

Not very familiar with the TNH teleconnection.  Reading up on it a bit at the CPC site.  From their write-up its not really clear which phase is better for the eastern CONUS.

 

From https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

The positive phase of the TNH pattern is associated with below-average surface temperatures throughout the western and central United States, and across central and eastern Canada. It is also associated with above-average precipitation across the central and eastern subtropical North Pacific, and below-average precipitation in the western United States and across Cuba, the Bahama Islands, and much of the central North Atlantic Ocean.

The negative phase of the TNH pattern is often observed during December and January when Pacific warm (ENSO) episode conditions are present (Barnston et al. 1991). One recent example of this is the 1994/95 winter season, when mature Pacific warm episode conditions and a strong negative phase of the TNH pattern were present. During this period, the mean Hudson Bay trough was much weaker than normal and shifted northeastward toward the Labrador Sea. Additionally, the Pacific jet stream was much stronger than normal and shifted southward to central California, well south of its climatological mean position in the Pacific Northwest. This flow pattern brought well above-normal temperatures to eastern North America and above-normal rainfall to the southwestern United States.

[cbmclean]

Looking at the TNH temp correlation, there doesn't seem to be much for the eastern seaboard.  Is it something that affects snowfall more than average temperature here?

[Amped]

The west coast is getting hit with a daisy chain of storms on long range models.

[Ji]

We have had about 4 inched of liquid this month at 33 degrees

[psuhoffman]

Here is a depressing fact.  In all NON el nino seasons in the last 50 years where DCA doesn't get at least a half inch of measurable snow by Jan 1 the avg snowfall is 6" and the chances of an above avg season are 1 in 16.  The avg goes down to 5" if it doesn't snow by Jan 10 and 4" if not by Jan 20. 

[BristowWx]

  On 12/23/2022 at 5:49 AM, psuhoffman said:

Here is a depressing fact.  In all NON el nino seasons in the last 50 years where DCA doesn't get at least a half inch of measurable snow by Jan 1 the avg snowfall is 6" and the chances of an above avg season are 1 in 16.  The avg goes down to 5" if it doesn't snow by Jan 10 and 4" if not by Jan 20. 

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Awesome.  So fun.

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 12/23/2022 at 5:49 AM, psuhoffman said:

Here is a depressing fact.  In all NON el nino seasons in the last 50 years where DCA doesn't get at least a half inch of measurable snow by Jan 1 the avg snowfall is 6" and the chances of an above avg season are 1 in 16.  The avg goes down to 5" if it doesn't snow by Jan 10 and 4" if not by Jan 20. 

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Do you just...look up depressing snow stats late at night? I mean dang dude...Info is info, of course but...sending snow weenies to bed depressed? Lol

[CAPE]

  On 12/23/2022 at 8:46 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Do you just...look up depressing snow stats late at night? I mean dang dude...Info is info, of course but...sending snow weenies to bed depressed? Lol

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It's pertinent given the likelihood it will not have snowed in DC by Jan 1, and the advertised pattern the week or so beyond that looks highly unfavorable.

[CAPE]

  On 12/23/2022 at 2:54 AM, cbmclean said:

Not very familiar with the TNH teleconnection.  Reading up on it a bit at the CPC site.  From their write-up its not really clear which phase is better for the eastern CONUS.

 

From https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

The positive phase of the TNH pattern is associated with below-average surface temperatures throughout the western and central United States, and across central and eastern Canada. It is also associated with above-average precipitation across the central and eastern subtropical North Pacific, and below-average precipitation in the western United States and across Cuba, the Bahama Islands, and much of the central North Atlantic Ocean.

The negative phase of the TNH pattern is often observed during December and January when Pacific warm (ENSO) episode conditions are present (Barnston et al. 1991). One recent example of this is the 1994/95 winter season, when mature Pacific warm episode conditions and a strong negative phase of the TNH pattern were present. During this period, the mean Hudson Bay trough was much weaker than normal and shifted northeastward toward the Labrador Sea. Additionally, the Pacific jet stream was much stronger than normal and shifted southward to central California, well south of its climatological mean position in the Pacific Northwest. This flow pattern brought well above-normal temperatures to eastern North America and above-normal rainfall to the southwestern United States.

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I have always found the TNH impacts on our weather to be a bit nebulous. Anecdotally if either phase is strong it can have negative impacts wrt the desired outcome of cold/snow in our region, and it seems be more problematic in combination with a Nina.

[Weather Will]

Santa needs to bring some in this forum antidepressants for Christmas and large cups of Good Cheer….

[CAPE]

Marked improvement in the advertised h5 pattern towards the end of the 0z GEFS, especially out west. Hopefully the reshuffle/mild period lasts only about a week.