January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think we've just been in a persistent -ENSO base state. this should change once we head into a Nino state, which should occur next year, definitely the year after

Eh, 2018-19 was a Nino though.  Wouldn't have known from the mid latitude response though.  MJO raged into the usual phases.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just to drive home the point. This was a previous atrocious period from the 70s.

Look at where the negative anomaly is centered!  We would absolutely torch in that pattern today with a severely negative PNA and positive AO/NAO. Yet by todays climo (it’s using 1991-2020) all that produced was “avg” h5 heights in the east!  Do you have any doubts that today a repeat of that longwave pattern would have reds that would make Satin blush all over the east!  
 

Man didn't cause this...

I’m not engaging in the blame game. Never have. I’ve not wasted a single post on the causality. Ppl can believe whatever they want.  But it is getting warmer. Whether it’s from a natural and temporary climo cycle or man made makes no difference to our snow prospects in the here and now. 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with @CAPE that our next mModoki Nino is a great test case. We underperformed our last Nino. The excuses have some validity. But if we underperform the next one…it’s starts getting harder to ignore the obvious. If we get a modoki next year and DC gets 40” then maybe it’s been more a temporary cycle. I think it’s part both. Maybe 70/30 bad pattern cycle v climate.  This would have been a bad period in any decade given the pac longwave pattern. But I think it’s been made worse. I’m curious myself to see how “muted” our snowfall is once we get a truly good and long term sustained pattern where we can’t make any excuses if it fails to produce prolific snowfall. 

I know that many gave speculated about next year being a Nino.  Has anyone come across any reason to believe it would be a Modoki?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I know that many gave speculated about next year being a Nino.  Has anyone come across any reason to believe it would be a Modoki?

I saw some data months ago that favored modoki based on sub surface temps.  Haven’t looked recently.

[Cobalt]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with @CAPE that our next modoki Nino is a great test case. We underperformed our last Nino. The excuses have some validity. But if we underperform the next one…it’s starts getting harder to ignore the obvious. If we get a modoki next year and DC gets 40” then maybe it’s been more a temporary cycle. I think it’s part both. Maybe 70/30 bad pattern cycle v climate.  This would have been a bad period in any decade given the pac longwave pattern. But I think it’s been made worse. I’m curious myself to see how “muted” our snowfall is once we get a truly good and long term sustained pattern where we can’t make any excuses if it fails to produce prolific snowfall. 

It seems to me that our winter troubles are amplified whenever the Pacific isn't close to perfect. In recent memory 2013-2014/2014-15 were our last big +PNA/-EPO winters and those absolutely worked in the East, but out West they were near wall to wall record warm. +EPO/-PNAs do the same to us in the East. Anything in between and the firehose is muted somewhat but you can definitely tell where margins are lost. In the past 10 years or so it seems like the Pacific has entered the driver's seat and overpowers any other influence, positive or negative. That especially hurts us in La Ninas that still need some blocking help for the larger type storms, so now on top of needing a perfect pacific look you require at least some blocking in the AO or NAO domains. The 18-19 Nino did underperform but it was DCA's only AN snowfall winter since 15/16 and that was the last winter that had respectable cold readings at DCA as well. In my mind the change in base state has us faltering in La Ninas more but I guess there hasn't been enough El Ninos to accumulate sufficient data. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Eh, 2018-19 was a Nino though.  Wouldn't have known from the mid latitude response though.  MJO raged into the usual phases.

yeah, that's my point haha it was a weak Nino surrounded by Ninas. the base state has predominantly been Nina-ish and I'm assuming this will change once we get a solid mod-strong Nino... there are hints of this occurring next year

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS for middle of next week.  Last frame was 12Z yesterday.

[aldie 22]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Just to drive home the point. This was a previous atrocious period from the 70s.

Look at where the negative anomaly is centered!  We would absolutely torch in that pattern today with a severely negative PNA and positive AO/NAO. Yet by todays climo (it’s using 1991-2020) all that produced was “avg” h5 heights in the east!  Do you have any doubts that today a repeat of that longwave pattern would have reds that would make Satin blush all over the east!  
 

Man didn't cause this...

Those damn women and their hairspray 

[nj2va]

Euro Control actually runs the storm next week up the coast but 850s are above freezing except out towards the mountains.  Maybe a cleaner phase of the southern vort with a piece of the TPV would have produced a colder solution.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s hard to say where we go from there. I don’t think analogs are as useful as they used to be.  Additionally almost all the top analogs to the current and coming pattern are Nino years. The one Nina that’s close to this wrt pattern progression and where we are heading now.

Here’s a thought…would that even work again?  If the exact same pattern repeats would that Feb 2006 storm work out because almost all the snow around DC fell with temps between 32-34 degrees. Or would it be a 34-35 degree rain and we would totally waste the same pattern?  

The Feb 2006 storm was indeed a thread-the-needle event. I was at Millersville at the time and remember we scored a few narrow hits that left DC with rain. 

For the Feb 2006 event, we were supposed to be cloudy with a midday start time, but we woke up to full sun and temps in the mid 30s. Thankfully we narrowly lucked out up there, but I agree, today that storm would be a cold rain. Our climate is broken.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Euro Control actually runs the storm next week up the coast but 850s are above freezing except out towards the mountains.  Maybe a cleaner phase of the southern vort with a piece of the TPV would have produced a colder solution.

In my posts earlier yesterday I discussed the key features, mostly upstream, that would influence the shortwave and the opportunity for it to turn the corner enough. The Canadian ens was depicting the best outcome, but has since trended towards the GEFS. The latest Euro/EPS gets it done by bringing a vortex in over the top- perfectly timed so as not to dampen the wave- and provides confluence that places HP at the surface in a favorable spot so it's a bit colder as the wave comes up along the coast. Thread the needle type deal. The big picture synoptics at that time are the strengthening vortex near AK with the PNA ridge shifting east and evolving into a large area of +heights over the eastern half of the US with moderating temps. The pattern is transitioning from cold to mild over the east. At this range nothing is etched in stone, so there is still a chance this could work out.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS at Day 6

[aldie 22]

Webb is trolling hard on twitter, dude better hope he never busts in the future.

[WesternFringe]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with @CAPE that our next modoki Nino is a great test case. We underperformed our last Nino. The excuses have some validity. But if we underperform the next one…it’s starts getting harder to ignore the obvious. If we get a modoki next year and DC gets 40” then maybe it’s been more a temporary cycle. I think it’s part both. Maybe 70/30 bad pattern cycle v climate.  This would have been a bad period in any decade given the pac longwave pattern. But I think it’s been made worse. I’m curious myself to see how “muted” our snowfall is once we get a truly good and long term sustained pattern where we can’t make any excuses if it fails to produce prolific snowfall. 

This.  I have a gut feeling we can still do snow well in a modoki nino and a nice run of plentiful snow years will put this all in perspective.  Then we can better determine whether this poor run we are currently in is more cyclical in nature vs a long-term trend.  We shall see.  

[WxUSAF]

Was thinking this the other day and some Twitter Mets have been posting about it now, but the “relax” period around new years is basically a canonical super El Niño pattern. Pretty odd in the midst of a 3rd year La Niña. As that big AK/NPac trough rotates back west toward the Aleutians and Kamchatka, the PNA and EPO ridge will go back up and we’ll chill back down. Very Nino-like evolution. No pattern has been locking in for very long (clearly…), so I imagine we’ll have opportunities by/after Jan 7-10.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Was thinking this the other day and some Twitter Mets have been posting about it now, but the “relax” period around new years is basically a canonical super El Niño pattern. Pretty odd in the midst of a 3rd year La Niña. As that big AK/NPac trough rotates back west toward the Aleutians and Kamchatka, the PNA and EPO ridge will go back up and we’ll chill back down. Very Nino-like evolution. No pattern has been locking in for very long (clearly…), so I imagine we’ll have opportunities by/after Jan 7-10.

I was thinking the same and kinda hinted at it in my comments last night how all the best current analogs are ninos.  Our current typical bad start aside maybe it’s a positive that so far we’ve not seen much canonical Nina atmospheric response.   The pacific has been variable with perhaps more of a Nino ish lean overall. 

[MN Transplant]

11 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

I mean this "arctic shot" is likely gonna put DC only in the mid-upper teens.  These cold shots have been moderating, at least for the east coast, quite profoundly over the past few years.

While I generally agree with the overall sentiment you are conveying, there is a real chance that DCA may see a record low max on Christmas Eve (current record, 23).  This is a very solid cold air shot one month before our peak climo cold.

[mattie g]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The Feb 2006 storm was indeed a thread-the-needle event. I was at Millersville at the time and remember we scored a few narrow hits that left DC with rain. 

For the Feb 2006 event, we were supposed to be cloudy with a midday start time, but we woke up to full sun and temps in the mid 30s. Thankfully we narrowly lucked out up there, but I agree, today that storm would be a cold rain. Our climate is broken.

But you don't know that.

Look...I'm not saying that the earth isn't warming. What I'm saying is that you can't pick out one specific snowfall and make a claim that it would be rain nowadays because the temps were borderline during that specific event.

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But you don't know that.

Look...I'm not saying that the earth isn't warming. What I'm saying is that you can't pick out one specific snowfall and make a claim that it would be rain nowadays because the temps were borderline during that specific event.

I agree with this for 2 reasons:

1. A lot depends on the antecedent airmass and the high pressure position & strength prior to a storm. If you take one specific storm and put the exact same track into a slightly different airmass and a slightly different high up north, then you'll see different results, and you can't solely blame AGW for it.

2. We've seen cold 33 degree rainstorms before. I grew up here, and we've had them every winter. They're nothing new.

EDIT: adding a 3rd reason:

3. We seem to be forgetting that in the last several years, the delmarva / coast made out like bandits in their own heater. They had, what, 3 or 4 "bomb cyclones" dumping 18" give or take right on those beaches, right?

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I agree with this for 2 reasons:

1. A lot depends on the antecedent airmass and the high pressure position & strength prior to a storm. If you take one specific storm and put the exact same track into a slightly different airmass and a slightly different high up north, then you'll see different results, and you can't solely blame AGW for it.

2. We've seen cold 33 degree rainstorms before. I grew up here, and we've had them every winter. They're nothing new.

Agreed.

Let's think of the inverse. Is it possible that a borderline event becomes all snow today because the low bombed out just that bit more (mets would know better why this might happen) and the column crashed harder because of it?

I just don't like discussions about a warming climate to be distilled down to very specific moments. It's like that one person who said that we could have "used a little bit of that good ol' global warming" during a cold stretch a few years ago. It's reductive in that it claims that one specific instance is proof of an overall larger issue, which I think does the science wrong.

With that, I should probably back out of this discussion!

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I was thinking the same and kinda hinted at it in my comments last night how all the best current analogs are ninos.  Our current typical bad start aside maybe it’s a positive that so far we’ve not seen much canonical Nina atmospheric response.   The pacific has been variable with perhaps more of a Nino ish lean overall. 

I haven't looked close like u guys but I 100% agree that the oddball unmistakable Nino look is unlikely to last much at all for a lot of reasons. My guess is the big -4std AO is bullying things as heights shift around. Pretty anomalous stuff in the artic during a time of year where it can really assert itself both up and down stream. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I haven't looked close like u guys but I 100% agree that the oddball unmistakable Nino look is unlikely to last much at all for a lot of reasons. My guess is the big -4std AO is bullying things as heights shift around. Pretty anomalous stuff in the artic during a time of year where it can really assert itself both up and down stream. 

 

So you think the unusual nino look will NOT last much or it likely WILL? (Trying to make sue I understood ya correctly)

[cbmclean]

Alright.  Seems like there is really only one thing to talk about in this thread at the moment: when/if the big AK vortex breaks down/moves.  Some of the more level-headed folks have voiced cautious optimism that it may not be excessively long.  In between waring with the NE Snow weenies Eric Webber mentioned that he is optimistic because intense waves such as that retrograde due to the "beta effect" whatever that is.  So perhaps we have a shot.

[HighStakes]

Teleconnections off today's 12z Euro look pretty good in the extended. EPO heads towards negative, PNA stays positive while AO and NAO remain neutral to slightly positive. That could work well for us and could ( emphasize could ) lock in for a couple weeks coinciding with our coldest seasonal averages. Fingers crossed for a nice mini heater from second week of through the end of the month. Let's hope indices stay on track. 

[Weather Will]

Only game in town the next 10 days….maybe the seasonal trends will continue and this continues to shift west…WB 18Z GFS

[Amped]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Only game in town the next 10 days….maybe the seasonal trends will continue and this continues to shift west…WB 18Z GFS

 

Wave spacing is pretty bad both in front and behind next weeks potential event.   The Euro at least had a decent 500mb disturbance, even though it was a long way from catching the baroclinic zone. 

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I agree with this for 2 reasons:

1. A lot depends on the antecedent airmass and the high pressure position & strength prior to a storm. If you take one specific storm and put the exact same track into a slightly different airmass and a slightly different high up north, then you'll see different results, and you can't solely blame AGW for it.

2. We've seen cold 33 degree rainstorms before. I grew up here, and we've had them every winter. They're nothing new.

EDIT: adding a 3rd reason:

3. We seem to be forgetting that in the last several years, the delmarva / coast made out like bandits in their own heater. They had, what, 3 or 4 "bomb cyclones" dumping 18" give or take right on those beaches, right?

On the third reason- good point, but consider those big storms happened during Ninas, with progressive flow, late developing offshore lows, in patterns that produced legit cold and shifted the baroclinic boundary further east. For folks inland it was like what storm? Cold and dry. 

[87storms]

This may have already been mentioned, but this winter (or season) somewhat reminds me of 2017/2018 so far.  We had a pretty legit arctic blast in late Dec/early Jan, also during a weak La Nina.  Not sure about the other indexes at that time, but it was a generally underwhelming snow season with only a late March system that dropped a few inches (hopefully that doesn't end up being the case this season).

[DE2PA]

The NYD warm up is being described as “text book Nino pattern”.

Hear alot about how Nina does not favor our AOR.

So would this “classic” Nino be something we’re looking forward to?

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

So would this “classic” Nino be something we’re looking forward to?

Only if we get a legit STJ. I don't see it yet.